AFL 2026, Round 14 Talking Points

Gold Coast was supposed to finally emerge as a flag contender this year; instead, like the bad old days, they’re facing a potential trade disaster.

Plus the ‘perfect’ season flying under the radar, and the $1 million deal that deserves more criticism as the big issues from Round 14 are analysed in Foxfooty.com.au’s Talking Points!

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SUNS FIGHT TO RETAIN STARS (AGAIN) AS GUN’S CALL COSTING HIM

Gold Coast is fighting two battles in 2026.

The season at hand. And a fight to retain the club’s stars that are being circled by rivals in a feeling of deja vu from previous Suns iterations.

This time it’s the futures of Ben King, Jed Walter and Bailey Humphrey that are uncertain.

And with King and Walter both out of contract as the season crossed the halfway mark, there’s reason for concern.

Meanwhile, Humphrey, who sought a trade back to Victoria last off-season, is contracted until 2028.

But that hasn’t stopped the likes of Hawthorn and Melbourne to continue to circle.

Despite that, Suns coach Damien Hardwick couldn’t have been more defiant on Humphrey’s fate earlier this month, when he said the club’s contracted guns will “not (be) going anywhere as long as I’m coach.”

It comes in the midst of disappointing season for Humphrey, who was one of the better mid-forwards in the game last year, ranking eighth at the position in the Player Ratings ahead of the likes of Shai Bolton and Harry Sheezel.

This year, not playing enough midfield time to qualify as a mid-forward and instead a general forward, he ranks 49th at his position including being below teammates Ben Long, Jake Rogers and Leo Lombard.

It has sparked fears the speculation around his future could be getting to the young gun and impacting his footy.

“The Suns’ message to Bailey Humphrey is to just concentrate on your football, get through to the end of the season,” Herald Sun reporter Jon Ralph said on Fox Footy.

“Dimma Hardwick was very, very strong: ‘You’re not being traded’. There is absolutely a world in which he’s traded.

“But they would want some quality players, not picks.

“So, start playing great football, Bailey, if you want to be a player that can secure the likes of Jordan Ridley in exchange, you’d want to go better than nine or 10 possessions, which he had tonight.”

Broadcaster Gerard Whateley pointed out that some players don’t handle being in the headlines as well as others.

“I think that’s the hard part. This is not suited to every player, not every player just absorbs being the centre of contract scrutiny,” he said.

“Bailey Humphrey’s year, he’d has had one good game, that’s it. He’s had the one good game to start.

“He’s really struggling. And it’s hard not to imagine this isn’t all compounded in that.”

Hawks legend Jordan Lewis added: “Some players can deal with that (scrutiny) and use it as motivation.

“And some players, it’s just all too much. It just looks like, unfortunately, Bailey Humphrey doesn’t have the maturity to deal with that at the moment.”

Geelong great Tom Hawkins says it’s a “big challenge when you put yourself out there to be traded for big money”.

“There comes big responsibility. He’s clearly dealing with that, he’s young and he will his way through that,” Hawkins said.

As for the club’s key position pillars, all the talk a few weeks ago was that King was set to re-sign and reject restricted free agency.

But the family pull to return to Victoria has clouded that decision and the growing possibility he pursues that, with Hawthorn the likely landing spot.

“There’s no doubt Gold Coast is really worried, they admit they have some concerns,” Ralph said of King.

“I spoke to Craig Cameron, they’re choosing to be optimistic.

“He said: ‘We would like him to have signed him by now, to be honest. We are being told by him and his management they believe he will be at the Gold Coast’.

“We also know he’s looking around at Hawthorn. I think they’re thinking they’d probably prefer Zach Merrett to Ben King, so that’s challenging in itself.”

Walter has already reportedly met with Essendon amid interest from multiple clubs, including Collingwood, as he contemplates a move to one of the big Victorian clubs.

Gold Coast increased its offer to the 21-year old in an attempt to fend off those rival bids and retain the young gun.

Lewis said the Suns “can’t lose both” King and Walter, which could leave them from having a surplus of key forwards to suddenly looking thin.

“Jed Walter teed up those meetings with clubs like Collingwood and Essendon when he’d been dropped,” Ralph said.

“So I think the Gold Coast view is, right now he’s in the side. Yes, they’ve offered him five years at $5 million, but they’ve also offered him two years.

“So I think even his manager is saying, maybe you take the two years, establish yourself and go and get big money if you want.

“I think their view is, too, you go and play for Collingwood and one of those really big clubs. Be careful what you wish for, because you’re gong to get a lot of scrutiny. I’m not sure if you’re ready for that one.

“You look at the scrutiny on Dan Houston, you look at the scrutiny on a star like Adam Treloar. You want the bright, hot lights of Thursday or Friday night football, you want to be playing really good football to be played $1 million-plus.”

All three players would need to be acquired via trade, with Gold Coast all but certain to match any free agency offer that King receives.

Those deals, should they occur, could end up working out for the Suns long-term. But this wasn’t supposed to be the story of their year – the year most people thought they would finally break through with an enviable group of talent.

With one of the hardest remaining draws in the AFL, the ninth-placed Suns could even miss the finals from here, which would be the biggest failure of any club in 2026.

Combine THAT with young stars looking to leave and they could easily be taking a giant leap backwards at the time they were supposed to go forwards.

THE ‘PERFECT SEASON’ NOBODY IS LOOKING AT

Things could not be going much better for Port Adelaide.

No, really. It’s basically a perfect season so far.

Not in a literal, win-loss record sense, obviously. They’re not at Essendon 2000 Until The Flood Game levels. They’ve won four of their first 13 games.

But in a year where a premiership was never a realistic goal, and where behind the scenes the Power will be caring more about long-term objectives than short-term sugar rush wins, they have to be happy.

Instead of a flag, the Power realistically needed two things out of 2026: new coach Josh Carr to look like a worthy successor to Ken Hinkley, and for the club to have the required draft assets for highly-rated, club-linked prospects Dougie Cochrane (2026), Louis Salopek and Zemes Pilot (both 2027).

On a surface level, these goals conflict. With the new draft bidding rules (which hurt Port Adelaide more than anyone else), they’re likely to need two top-10 picks to match a Cochrane bid if it comes in the top two, which is entirely possible.

And for Carr to look like a quality coach, you would presumably want the Power to be winning games – producing a proof of concept that his system is going to work, like we’ve seen at Melbourne with their first-year coach Steven King.

Except there’s a very thin line the Power could walk to achieve both goals. And they are tiptoeing on it perfectly through the season.

While five losses by three points or less would have been immensely frustrating to sit through for the Power faithful, and indeed for the coaches and players, getting as close as possible to winning games without actually winning them is an ideal scenario.

They are showing all the signs of being a genuinely competitive team, with a frankly ridiculous percentage of 101% despite sitting 15th on the ladder.

Their percentage, a better metric of team quality than a pure win-loss record, is better than the percentage of Collingwood (99.2%) or the Western Bulldogs (90.7%). It’s not that much worse than Melbourne’s (105.7%) – who are in the top four!

Carr’s defensive system looks extremely solid, with that incredibly impressive win over Geelong back on Anzac Day their crowning achievement, but narrow defeats to West Coast, Hawthorn, Adelaide, the Bulldogs and Sydney have kept them from climbing too far up the ladder.

Of course, if they’d gone 0-6 in close games by losing to West Coast a second time, everyone might’ve gotten suspicious. Port threw them off the scent by winning at least one thriller. (We are not saying they are actually tanking, because it suggests a level of control in these close-game situations which they just don’t have… but if they WERE, that’s the sort of thing you would do.)

Assuming the Power don’t fall off a cliff over their final 10 games, they will head into next season as clear candidates to bounce back in our annual Pythagorean wins column – which tipped Melbourne’s rise this season.

It’s not quite the same as Adelaide in 2024, because those Crows came into that season with higher expectations than this year’s Power did, but that team finished 15th with a percentage of 99.1 – going 2-6 with a draw in close games ruined their record.

The Power are well on track for something similar. It’s not a guarantee they’ll be good in 2027, because they’ll still be reshaping their list, especially if the likes of Zak Butters and Mitch Georgiades leave.

But this is effectively a run of bad luck, and you’d rather have all of your bad luck in a season where wins don’t matter, rather than a season where you’re seriously trying to win the comp.

IS THIS THE $1M SAINTS MISTAKE NOBODY TALKS ABOUT?

Mattaes Phillipou was just dropped by Ross Lyon, and is reportedly set to earn $1 million per year over the next two seasons.

That’s a problem.

St Kilda’s big spending was all the rage last offseason – and central to plenty of hot-takes from footy pundits – but its eye-watering contract offer to Phillipou, who’s yet to prove himself consistently at the level, has curiously received little attention to this point.

The former top-10 draft pick entered the competition with big wraps in 2022 – touted as a pure midfielder in due course, but developing in the early stages as a half-forward hybrid.

His 2025 campaign was bogged down by leg injuries, restricted to seven senior games after just 13 the year previous.

And in 2024, his second season, he averaged 14.4 disposals and 0.6 goals per game. In his 13 games to date this year, he’s averaged 14.5 possessions and 0.7 majors.

SEN’s Tom Morris reported in March that the Saints had re-signed Phillipou on that improved money – $1 million per year in 2027 and 2028 – halfway through last season.

Phillipou was dropped this week after totalling four possessions in almost 80 per cent game-time in St Kilda’s Round 13 loss to Sydney.

“They (the Saints) could see the development of a midfielder, but four possessions in 78 per cent game-time (against the Swans) – that scrutiny is going to be there,” Midweek Tackle’s Jon Ralph said on Friday night.

“He’s not playing million-dollar football – he’s not playing a-quarter-of-a-million-dollar football. That’s a real challenge for him to get his game going.”

Four-time premiership player Jordan Lewis said there were “quirky things” in Phillipou’s game, noting that he’s had to develop in “different positions”.

“Ever since he got to the club, he was an interesting watch,” Lewis said on Fox Footy.

“You’d hear things (like) he was able to do his own thing away from the group, and certain quirky things in his game, that he didn’t necessarily buy into the culture of the football club.

“I think he’s going to be a player at some stage. But maybe he’s one of those players with a big price-tag, and you’re trying to develop your game in different positions.

“Do those young players get flicked around a little bit too much? Maybe Phillipou is that type of player. Go back (in the reserves), play one position, get some confidence back up, and come back in and perform.”

All in all, the 21-year-old has played 57 games in three-and-a-half seasons. Clubs generally like to start seeing consistent glimpses once players hit the 50-game mark.

Across 13 games this year, Phillipou’s player rating is considered below average among general forwards, as are his 14.5 disposals per game.

To his credit, he’s had four games of 15-plus disposals and two-plus goals. But he’s also gone goalless on eight occasions and had fewer than 15 touches four times.

While things can obviously change in an instant, Phillipou has been just OK as an AFL player. It’s almost impossible to argue that he’s earned ‘million-dollar player’ status.

Phillipou tallied 28 disposals and nine clearances in the VFL Saints’ draw on Sunday. It’s only a matter of time before he’s back in the AFL side.

But when – if he does – will he be a consistent game-impacter at the top level?

UNSUNG HEROES AT NUCLEUS OF CROWS’ SUDDEN RISE

Adelaide’s deafening 57-point win over the Western Bulldogs last Thursday night rightly centred around the outstanding performances from the likes of Jordan Dawson, Riley Thilthorpe and Josh Rachele.

Their courageous captain, whose dealing with adversity this year is well-documented, had arguably the best quarter of any player in the first term, while Thilthorpe bounced back to his All-Australian form from last year with a monster start.

As for Rachele, his four goals proved his value in attack for head coach Matthew Nicks’ side in the absence of midfielder-forward Izak Rankine.

“That’s the most complete quarter we’ve played — or at least a complete game, I’d say — definitely this year,” Nicks told journalists post-game after his side’s win over the Bulldogs.

“I’m really proud of the way they were able to focus on the task at hand, which wasn’t an easy one.”

But beneath the rise of the Crows, there are intricate layers to their premiership profile — many of which revolve around role players who have until now operated out of the limelight.

Starting at the top, literally, is the surge of 210cm ruck Lachie McAndrew. Having played just two AFL games heading into this year, the former Swan has displaced Reilly O’Brien as the club’s No. 1 ruck and performed exceptionally well since Round 1.

The Manly-Warringah product claimed yet another scalp to his name in Tim English, giving the 2023 All-Australian “a bath” in the words of three-time premiership player Cameron Mooney on Thursday night.

“We’re extremely pleased. It was a massive challenge; (he’s got) Gawn next week, they don’t get much harder than that. But Tim English has been so important to the Bulldogs and he’s such a good player,” Nicks said.

“We actually had a very specific conversation around the challenge it was going to be tonight. But for him to go in and battle like he did — which has sort of been the narrative coming out of every game — he just doesn’t give his opposition an inch.

“He just continues to grind and work as hard as possible; he’s been huge for us this year. In a way, he’s still learning the game but I think the fact he’s keeping it simple … I’m really pleased with how he’s going.”

McAndrew has been aptly supported by forward-ruck Toby Murray so far this season, with O’Brien featuring only once against Fremantle in Round 4, when he played just 33 per cent game time.

At his feet all season has been Sam Berry, who, after a poor finals series last year, has excelled in his inside-midfielder role, which has allowed Dawson to play more of an outside game.

The 24-year-old racked up 29 disposals, 17 contested possessions and 11 clearances in a dominant display against some of the league’s best midfielders in Marcus Bontempelli and Ed Richards.

“We feel like ‘Bez’ has had one of his best seasons. He’s gone to another level with his footy, and he’s become super important there (in the midfield).”

Down back, however, is perhaps where Adelaide’s greatest unsung hero lies: James Borlase.

Called up alongside exiled ruck O’Brien against the Dockers, the 23-year-old key defender has, time and again this season, played on the league’s best tall forwards.

Such is his rising value in Nicks’ side that the coach praised him unprompted after another stellar performance last Thursday.

“I thought Borlase was unbelievable tonight behind the ball. I thought our whole back six or seven that went through there played some really solid footy, they were really hard to play against,” Nicks said.

“Borlase is a guy who’s done a hell of a lot of work, and been challenged in and out of the side in the last three or four years.

“He’s found his way in, and now he’s beginning to get to that level where he’s consistently performing, and he was so important for us tonight.”

At the conclusion of Round 14, the Sturt product ranks third in the league for average spoils per game (9.8), and has a contested one-on-one loss rate of just 10.5% — despite averaging more one-on-ones than any player in the competition each match.

‘ODD SCENARIO’ THAT COULD LEAVE CATS IN COACHING PICKLE