AFL 2026, Round 13 Talking Points

A dramatic weekend of upsets leaves a runaway top two atop the AFL, and history suggests they won’t be caught.

Plus the spicy skipper hurting his side, the courageous captain deserving even more praise, and the big Pies trade question as the big issues from Round 13 are analysed in Foxfooty.com.au’s Talking Points!

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IS THE GRAND FINAL LOCKED IN? HISTORY SAYS YES

We would say that it’s time for Fremantle fans to start booking flights for Grand Final week, but based on the current prices, they already have been.

At least Sydney fans can consider driving down. (Just don’t get tricked into flying into Avalon.)

Round 13 couldn’t have gone much better for the AFL’s top two, with Hawthorn and Geelong both losing, before the Dockers embarrassed North Melbourne and the Swans came back to beat St Kilda.

So while Fremantle and Sydney’s only losses this year have come against the Hawks and Cats, their dominance in every other game has seen the pair open up a sizeable gap at the top of the ladder.

And history suggests the Matthew Pavlich Cup will be on the line on the last Saturday in September. (And also the premiership cup, but c’mon, everyone loves Pav.)

The Dockers are now a whopping four wins clear of the third-placed Hawks – as in, they would need to lose four straight games while the Hawks win four straight games just to be caught – while the Swans are three wins clear.

AFL ladder after Round 13

1. Fremantle (48 pts)

2. Sydney (44 pts)

3. Hawthorn (34 pts)

4. Geelong (32 pts)

5. Western Bulldogs (32 pts)

6. Gold Coast (28 pts)

7. Adelaide (28 pts)

8. Brisbane (28 pts)

9. Melbourne (28 pts, to play Monday)

10. GWS (24 pts)

11. Collingwood (22 pts, to play Monday)

12. St Kilda (20 pts)

13. Carlton (20 pts)

14. North Melbourne (20 pts)

Combined with their massive percentages, with only 10 games left in the home and away season, the top two have mammoth leads which make them extremely likely to earn home qualifying finals.

We’re not just guessing here. History suggests a three-game lead at this point of the season means a hell of a lot on the ladder.

In the AFL era, every team with that lead has finished in the top two – and gone on to make the Grand Final.

Teams with a 3+ win lead over 3rd place after 13 games (AFL era)

West Coast 1991 (10 pts ahead) – Finished 1st on ladder

Essendon 2000 (18 pts) – Finished 1st, won flag

West Coast 2005 (16 pts) – Finished 2nd

St Kilda 2009 (16 pts) – Finished 1st

Geelong 2009 (16 pts) – Finished 2nd, won flag

Geelong 2011 (12 pts) – Finished 2nd, won flag

Sydney 2024 (12 pts) – Finished 1st

Fremantle 2026 (14 pts) – ???

Sydney 2026 (10 pts) – ???

The most recent team with this sort of lead, the 2024 Swans, are very instructive. They went 13-1 to start the season – which gave them enough breathing room when they dropped five of their next six games.

The Swans never relinquished top spot on the ladder because no team was perfect enough to catch them despite that losing skid.

They didn’t go on to win the flag, but we’re not talking about Grand Final day itself. We’re talking about teams putting themselves in the best possible position to make the Grand Final.

Maybe Geelong, or Hawthorn, or another team can be better on the day. But Fremantle and Sydney have put themselves in a massively advantageous position – particularly as non-Victorian teams, who we know are disadvantaged with travel.

Only having to win two home finals, rather than needing to fly around the country before flying back to Melbourne for the Grand Final, makes such a big difference.

Oh, and for all those wondering – we’re getting Fremantle vs Sydney in a about a month’s time, on a Thursday night at Optus Stadium. Can’t wait.

‘RESPONSIBILITY TO BE CLASSY’: HAWK’S BIGGEST FLAW REARS HEAD AGAIN

James Sicily is a terrific footballer, but he remains one of the most mentally exploitable players in the competition.

And not for the first time in his near-200-game AFL career, Hawthorn’s co-captain on Friday night let himself be manipulated by his opponent’s mind games.

As a result, his impact waned as the Hawks’ lead against the Bulldogs dissipated.

It likely won’t be the last time, either, that Sicily lets the away-from-the-ball dynamics affect his ability to lead his side’s cause.

Amongst a bevy of spotfires on Friday night, eight-game Bulldogs forward Will Lewis’ battle with Hawthorn’s co-skipper was particularly prominent in the second half.

Minutes-long off-the-ball wrestling and celebration-mocking were front-of-mind for Sicily, who registered six disposals and one mark in the second half – when the Dogs kicked 8.2 to the Hawks’ 1.11 to run out six-point victors.

At one point Sicily bizarrely ‘celebrated’ a Bulldogs goal in Lewis’ face.

“Bevo said during the week: ‘You’re going to go to him’. It was just about playing him at stoppages, but it turned into a bit more than that in the second half,” Lewis told 3AW radio post-game.

“Bevo said ‘Get stuck into him’ … I got under his skin a little bit, and that helped us get on top and get a bit of momentum.”

Former Adelaide and Geelong forward Josh Jenkins wrote on X on Friday night: “Sicily did not impact the game from the moment he engaged with Lewis. Major win for (the Bulldogs) there.”

Sicily’s antics alone aren’t the reason the wayward-kicking Hawks surrendered their ascendancy, but his lack of focus on the task at hand set a poor example for his teammates looking to him for guidance.

“It is a green light that if your captain is doing it (engaging in off-the-ball sideshows), then ‘we can all do it’,” West Coast premiership coach Adam Simpson told SEN radio at the weekend.

“There’s a certain responsibility to be classy in that space … I just think there’s some growth there.

“He’s still a good player, but ‘what is he doing for the rest of the group’ is probably the thought process he needs to work through.”

Around the AFL, you only have to look as far as fellow captains Marcus Bontempelli and Jordan Dawson and the like, who, no matter the irritants they’re forced to deal with every week, are unflappable and tunnel vision-like.

The same goes for someone like Tom Stewart, who, like Sicily, has received opposition attention for his back-half influence, yet has conversely handled it with maturity.

“My gut feel is, the captain – I look at (Bontempelli), he’s up there with the best from a captaincy point of view,” Simpson said.

“You can’t get in his head; it’s Fort Knox. There’s nothing you can do to him to antagonise – he’ll just do his thing.

“I think Sicily’s next step as a captain is to not taunt when his opposition kicks a goal and he taunts his direct opponent with his celebration, or gives away a free kick that just shouldn’t be there.

“If you know you can get inside someone’s head, then you’ve got some work to do.”

It’s not unfair to suggest that’s partly the reason why Jai Newcombe, as of the start of this season, shares Hawthorn’s captaincy.

As Simpson suggests, Newcombe – who leads by example and rarely buys into the off-ball stuff – appears a good leadership stabiliser.

“He seems to be a good connection piece from a joint captaincy (perspective). You can’t get in his head,” Simpson added.

All in all, the Hawks played into the Dogs’ hands as far as the mind games went – something clearly strategically driven by Luke Beveridge in the lead-up.

Michael Sellwood troubled Nick Watson in the other eye-catching one-on-one, while an all-out quarter-time melee broke out in the spicy clash.

The Dogs were keen to atone for five-straight losses to Hawthorn, including a 40-point loss back in April, with key defender Rory Lobb and his teammates not forgetting the Hawks’ “chirp” in Adelaide.

“They beat us up at Gather Round, and we were very disappointed with how we went in that game,” Lobb told Foxfooty.com.au on Friday night.

“They got a bit chirpy in that game, and we knew they were going to get their tails up. We wanted to really take the fight to them.

“There was a little bit of beef in that. And then when they were really flying, kicking four in a row in that second quarter and then really getting into us, we needed to make a stand.

“I feel like the physicality was in our game, and it was great to get the win.”

STAR DUO’S POSSIBLE EXITS IGNITES R-WORD DEBATE

Port Adelaide chairman David Koch despises the term ‘rebuild’. He reckons it’s “an excuse for failure”.

In fact, he’s banned the word from being uttered inside the four walls at Alberton Oval. ‘Rebooting’, for what it’s worth, is the preferred term.

But here in Talking Points, we’re about to drop the R-word a bit. For the Power in coming months are being tipped to face a delicate list conundrum: To cut deep now and fully embrace a rebuild before it’s too late, or stagger the losses.

The Power’s six-point win over West Coast lifted them to 14th on the ladder — prior to Sunday night’s game — with a percentage of 101.4. Yet despite remaining competitive under first-year coach Josh Carr and Koch insisting finals are still the benchmark, the club faces significant questions about its long-term list strategy.

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IN AND UNDER: A new Butters frontrunner? Inside four-club race for footy’s most prized signature

Star midfielder Zak Butters, who was quintessentially inspirational against the Eagles with 27 disposals and seven clearances, still hasn’t officially made a call on whether he’ll exercise his free agency rights.

But as CODE Sports reporter Jon Ralph indicated on Friday night — minutes after the Western Bulldogs’ impressive comeback win over Hawthorn — a Butters move to join Marcus Bontempelli at the Whitten Oval remains the most likely event, despite keen and cashed-up Richmond’s reported $18 million play.

“I reckon it’s really important for them (the Bulldogs) to be in the premiership race, because a guy like Zak Butters will be watching those kind of games (against Hawthorn) and saying to himself: ‘Can this team win flags if I’m in this team?’ And I think the answer is probably yes,” Ralph told Fox Footy on Friday night.

“The Bont-Butters 2027 dream team is as close as it’s ever been to reality. I think the Dogs have got a growing level of confidence that Zak wants to play with them.

“Clubs like Melbourne and Carlton and Hawthorn have fallen away. Richmond is throwing money at him and Geelong is still in the race to some extent. But again, that’s why these wins (by the Dogs against Hawthorn) are so critical.”

Ralph added the Power would likely match any restricted free agency compensation offer to Butters to force that rival club into a trade deal and boost the Power’s draft capital. But he pointed out if the Power finished, for example, 16th on the ladder, they’d almost certainly get Pick 4 back as compensation if they didn’t match the offer.

A big goal for the Power this season is to not only position themselves to match an inevitably early bid on generational NGA gun Dougie Cochrane — who could be called at Pick 1 in November’s draft — but also be best prepared for future drafts featuring more club-tied talent like Zemes Pilot, Tevita Rodan and Louis Salopek.

“Do we understand the size of the loss that Butters will be? He’s everything for them every week,” dual premiership Kangaroo David King told Fox Footy’s Super Saturday Live,

“Oh, ‘you get a couple of draft picks to replace (him)’ — but you’re replacing a Hall of Fame-style player.

“It always gets back to pressure on the coach … it can really destabilise. You lose a player like Butters and then you get players that come in your door at 17, 18 years of age — and you start the process again. It’s three, four years before they’re ‘this player’.”

Triple premiership Tiger Jack Riewoldt said Butters’ ability to set the tone for his side made him “enticing to every single footy club”, while he also loomed as a future AFL captain, either at Port Adelaide or a different club.

Yet Butters isn’t the only player shaping Port Adelaide’s list planning.

The Power are also managing growing speculation around key forward Mitch Georgiades, who’s kicked 28.28 from his 12 games so far this season.

Georgiades, 24, is set for restricted free agency in 2027 and looms as a prime target for rival clubs, particularly West Coast. Whether that situation ramps up this year or in his contract year remains unclear at this stage.

Nonetheless, it’s not front of mind at the moment for Georgiades.

“I’ve still got 18 months to make any decisions,” Georgiades told Fox Footy after his side’s win on Saturday night.

“I’m loving playing for this club at the moment. A new coach, new group – it’s really exciting.

“So I’m not thinking too much about the future at the moment. I think it’s just one game at a time and hopefully a couple more wins for the rest of the year.”

The problem is the Power, amid their rebuild, would be forecasting years into the future and closely assessing their list priorities.

King asked if the Power should either play hardball and hold Georgiades to his contract if he asked for a trade this year, or facilitate a deal to help the club “scoop the pool with picks” before the heavily Tasmania-compromised 2027 draft.

“To be honest, if he (Georgiades) is going, you stagger the losses,” Herald Sun chief football writer Jay Clark replied on Fox Footy. “You don’t want to cop the whole hit.

“They’d really struggle in the short-term. I mean, wouldn’t you be hoping to try to turn around Georgiades and keep him? He’s got five to seven of his prime years of his footballing career ahead of him as an athletic centre half-forward.”

But holding Georgiades to his contract would come with its own risks, according to Riewoldt, who pointed to Richmond’s aggressive 2024 off-season that saw them lose Shai Bolton (Fremantle), Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast), Liam Baker (West Coast), Jack Graham (West Coast) at the trade table then select six players in the top 30 of the draft.

“The capital you get back for Georgiades, if you don’t trade him at the end of this year, is not going to be the same when you trade him at the end of his contract,” he said. “One, because he can walk (as a free agent), but also it’s going to be diluted by Tasmania, who are going to have a lot of picks.

“Richmond did this three years ago … Can Port Adelaide do that, knowing as well they’re going to get Dougie Cochrane?”

King added: “He (Georgiades) will see Butters leave. He’ll be thinking: ‘OK, what am I waiting for?’

“So the question really is: Do you start the rebuild immediately? They say they’re a club that don’t rebuild …”

WHY PIES ARE ‘HOT ON NEALE’S TRAIL’ AS LIONS DEBATE REIGNS

Collingwood is “hot on the trail” of dual Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale as debate reigns over whether he should leave Brisbane at season’s end.

An unrestricted free agent this year, the 33-year-old will have his children – who are in Perth with estranged wife Jules – front-of-mind when making his decision.

But in terms of the on-field factors, Neale prospectively fits Collingwood like a glove.

He aligns with the club’s age demographic, bringing premiership pedigree while costing the Pies nothing in terms of precious draft capital.

Neale leads the competition for centre clearances, ranks second for ground ball gets, and third for contested possessions. For context, Collingwood sits last in the competition for centre clearances as it seeks more midfield influence.

First Crack’s Jay Clark explained the machinations behind the Magpies’ pursuit.

“Collingwood has been hot on his trail in the last two months … the Pies are crying out for exactly someone of his quality,” Clark told Fox Footy’s Super Saturday Live.

“Nick Daicos desperately needs a running mate. Collingwood wants to keep its draft picks and bring in the free agents.

“That’s what he is, an unrestricted free agent, so he comes without giving up a top draft pick. There’s some uncertainty over where he wants to live, whether it’s Perth back with his family, (and) he’s weighing up potentially a Melbourne move.”

Clark’s colleague Jon Ralph in recent days reported Neale is “very unlikely to play for a WA-based club” next year, while Adelaide – in the state he hails from – is among the clubs interested in luring him.

On whether Neale is open to moving to Melbourne, Clark said: “It’s something he’s working through.

“There’s a bit on his plate at the moment as you can understand, and I think Collingwood are very keen to get him.

“It seems like a great fit, is it not? They don’t give up a pick, and they get someone to win that hard ball which they’re struggling with inside the centre square.”

Triple Richmond premiership star Jack Riewoldt asked why Neale would leave Springfield, where he’s likely closer to another premiership than Collingwood.

Clark suggested that the young Lions midfielders, including Levi Ashcroft and eventually Dan Annable, will be “snapping at his heels” – an assertion Riewoldt wasn’t on board with.

“”They’re not snapping at his heels at the moment. Lachie Neale is by far their best midfielder at the moment,” he said.

“And you’re talking about a side that’s still got generational talent. They’re not where they want to be this season, but there’s no reason to say they can’t go again (next year) with their young talent.

“If they lose Zac Bailey as well … that decimates the midfield of this Lions team.”

Clark suggested that it could come down to Brisbane’s cap flexibility in terms of the sort of offer it could table Neale.

“Brisbane has a tight salary cap, and potentially Collingwood can offer him a bigger carrot to come to Melbourne — and potentially a longer-term deal,” he said.

“We know they want to contend for the next three years while Nick Daicos is there (contracted), otherwise potentially Daicos is vulnerable (to leaving).

“I think your point on Brisbane is a reasonable one, but money is tight … this will be one I think that potentially goes down to the wire.”

CROWS’ CAPTAIN COURAGEOUS LIKE NO OTHER… AND HONOUR HE’S AN ‘ABSOLUTE LOCK’ FOR

There’s no captain more courageous in the AFL right now than Adelaide’s Jordan Dawson.

The 29-year-old superstar stood up yet again on Thursday night to spearhead the Crows to their third one-point win of the season, downing Geelong to keep in touch with the top six at the halfway mark of the year.

His influence was impossible to ignore, amassing 22 disposals, nine tackles, three goals and two contested marks, with a pair of long-range strikes helping drag Adelaide over the line.

“That’s as good a game as you’ll see Dawson play,” two-time North Melbourne premiership player David King told Fox Footy post-match on Thursday night.

“You look at this season — five times he’s been in the top four rated players on the ground, and in the other games prior to tonight he’d been sixth or seventh.

“He’s been amongst the best every week. Tonight, when you had to have it, he was huge. He stepped up when it was required.”

Dawson’s personal circumstances, though, are what make his season to date stand taller than any of his captain counterparts.

The midfielder tragically lost his brother in mid-April, forcing him to miss matches in Rounds 6 and 8. It’s understandably a sorrow that continues to take its toll, with Dawson visibly emotional post-game on Thursday night.

“It’s one of the more remarkable individual seasons. What he’s done in every game he’s played this year, with the emotional toll he is carrying. To still come out and perform and lead his team the way that he has, it’s been incredible,” St Kilda great Leigh Montagna said.

“It’s amazing that so many people have done their All-Australian mid-year teams and not many had Jordan Dawson in them. He’s an absolute lock.

“His leadership was on display tonight with his courage. Some moments might not have been captured, but when Geelong had the set play from a kick-in and they opened it up to Blicavs, he was the one who came forward to get the fist in.”

Crows half-forward Ben Keays added to Fox Footy in the changerooms post-match: “What he’s been able to do this year under the circumstances is nothing short of incredible. I’m really proud of him.”

After a huge first half, Dawson’s night looked at risk of finishing early after a heavy marking contest at the start of the third term which saw him land heavily on his hip.

But as he’s now done so often, he played through the pain to deliver for his side who up until Thursday night had failed to truly hit their straps so far in 2026.

“He’s a warrior. He’s not the only one, but incredibly he just kept going,” Crows head coach Matthew Nicks said of his captain in his post-game press conference.

“We had a brief chat, it might have been three-quarter time, about how he might be best forward, and he said, ‘Give me five minutes (on the ball)’ and he did an unbelievable job.”