Eight teams fighting for six finals spots, analysis, ladder, Champion Data Core Four stats

Eight into six doesn’t go.

For the eight sides we believe are challenging for the six finals spots outside the top four, it’s going to be a frenetic race to the finish line.

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Because, really, the top four look pretty set. Fremantle and Sydney look like world-beaters, while Hawthorn is an obvious third – and potentially better than that when peaking.

Geelong has looked a touch vulnerable in the past two weeks, but until properly proven otherwise, the Cats are the fourth-best side after the aforementioned three.

Then, there are eight clubs seemingly battling for spots five through 10 on the ladder.

Carlton could well develop into a true finals contender, but for now, we’ll leave the Blues to the side.

That leaves Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Brisbane, GWS, Collingwood and St Kilda jumbled in together, with just three wins separating the Demons and Saints.

And you wouldn’t want to be one of the two teams finishing in 11th and 12th. This is the AFL ‘no man’s land’, for not only would you miss the wildcard round, you’d also be outside the bottom six — which is grouped into an ‘easier’ fixture the next year — and your first draft pick would land in the middle of the first round due to inevitably early bids.

It comes as the sixth-placed Dogs host the eighth-placed Crows to kick off Round 14 on Thursday night – the clubs meeting for the second time this season after their nailbiting March bout that saw Luke Beveridge’s side emerge six-point victors.

And while wins barely set these eight clubs apart, it’s their game styles that tell the story as we tick towards the business end of the season.

Specifically, Champion Data’s ‘Core Four’ assessment – With Footy, Without Footy, Clearance and Post Clearance – is one of the most reliable indicators.

So, with 10 weeks remaining in the home-and-away season, this is where all eight clubs sit – which are best-placed, which shape as outcasts, and what their remaining fixtures say about their chances.

5th. MELBOURNE (8-5, 102.3%)

With Footy: 8th

Without Footy: 13th

Clearance: 10th

Post Clearance: 11th

Total: 11th

The Demons have a middling profile, not posing a standout strength while sitting in the bottom six in Champion Data’s ‘without the footy’ metrics. It might come as something of a surprise, seeing as the Dees are a high-octane outfit that’s been among the better forward-half scoring teams in the competition. They rank fifth in the league for scoring and fifth for time spent in their forward half. Where they have room for improvement, though, is their capitalisation from inside-50 entries – ranking fifth-last for scores-per-entry – and their defence, ranking fifth-last for points against. They’re also a concerning 16th for defending ball movement, and 12th for opposition points from turnover. It’s a watch, seeing as the Demons also have one of the tougher runs home, set to clash with the likes of Adelaide (away), Hawthorn again, Geelong, Gold Coast (away), Fremantle, and the Bulldogs again.

6th. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-5, 94.6%)

With Footy: 13th

Without Footy: 15th

Clearance: 11th

Post Clearance: 14th

Total: 15th

In an eyebrow-raiser, the Bulldogs have the worst overall profile of this grouping despite sitting inside the top six entering Round 14. The Dogs currently rank as the sixth-best side for ball movement (defensive-50-to-inside-50), but outside of that, they rank outside the top 10 in the competition for most pertinent offensive metrics, including points from turnover (14th), time in their forward half (13th), and chain-to-score rate (13th). Their post-clearance ranking suggests there are structural improvements to be made. Bear in mind, though, that Luke Beveridge’s men have had one of the toughest fixtures to this point in the season, and have copped costly injury blows along the way. And that’s a load that’ll begin to alleviate, fortunately, with the Dogs – who have also regained key names – facing a far softer stretch of opponents in the run home, including remaining match-ups with St Kilda before the bye, West Coast, Richmond, North Melbourne and Carlton.

7th. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-5, 112.2%)

With Footy: 4th

Without Footy: 7th

Clearance: 9th

Post Clearance: 7th

Total: 5th

Since the start of the season, the Suns have boasted a profile that’s conducive to winning in September, but for one reason or another, they haven’t been able to put it all together. Gold Coast never really threatened Brisbane last Saturday, and that was after it surrendered a massive lead to lose to North Melbourne. The reason not to worry is the fact that their overall profile ranks fifth, per Champion Data, with only the Giants rated higher at this point in the year. The reason to worry? Gold Coast has one of, if not the, toughest remaining fixtures. Damien Hardwick’s side plays Geelong, Hawthorn and Fremantle in its next three. It also cops Adelaide on the road, the Bulldogs, the Giants away, and Brisbane again. The Suns haven’t beaten a contender since toppling Geelong in Opening Round. If they can’t start challenging the best, their promising premiership trajectory will certainly stall.

8th. ADELAIDE CROWS (7-5, 107.4%)

With Footy: 13th

Without Footy: 3rd

Clearance: 7th

Post Clearance: 8th

Total: 7th

The Crows’ performance when in possession has been a persistent question mark, and they’re tied with the Bulldogs as the worst ‘with the footy’ of this group of eight. Across the competition, they rank second-worst for defensive-50-to-score, third-worst for ball movement, and fourth-worst for chain-to-score. It’s a part of Adelaide’s game that has seen little improvement in recent months, and it could be what ends up coming back to haunt Matthew Nicks’ side come the business end of the year. The reason for optimism, though, is the fact the Crows have the best ‘without the footy’ ranking of these eight clubs, sitting third in the competition. They rank fourth for points against, and it’s a backline that’ll soon regain Mark Keane, who made the All-Australian squad last year. Another reason for optimism? The Crows have one of the easiest remaining fixtures, getting Port Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon and Richmond again in their run home, along with crucial home match-ups with Melbourne, Gold Coast, Collingwood and GWS. They’re a big top-six chance if they can maintain the form they displayed against Geelong.

9th. BRISBANE LIONS (7-6, 106.2%)

With Footy: 2nd

Without Footy: 14th

Clearance: 6th

Post Clearance: 13th

Total: 10th

Defence – and in particular reaction time in defensive transition – has been the Lions’ biggest issue in what’s been a turbulent premiership defence. Notably, they have the second-worst ‘without the footy’ rating of this group; better than only the Bulldogs, while their overall profile sits a middling 10th in the competition. Chris Fagan’s side ranks a lowly 13th for points against, while they’re a worrying 17th in the AFL for defending ball movement. With the footy, though, the Lions remain damaging, as we saw in last Saturday’s Q-Clash. It’s the second-best profile in the competition, and the best of this group of eight, with the Lions still a top-three team for scoring, generating inside-50s, and ball movement. And positively, as Brisbane jostles for positioning inside the top 10, it has one of the more favourable runs home in terms of fixturing. After its clash with Richmond in Tasmania this weekend, Brisbane has the bye before confronting the likes of Essendon, West Coast, Port Adelaide and Carlton in the second half of the year. That said, the Lions also cop Sydney again, Geelong again, and Hawthorn. But after a highly concerning three-game losing skid, headlined by a historic loss to the Giants, Fagan’s mob simply can’t be counted out.

10th. GWS GIANTS (6-6, 103.2%)

With Footy: 6th

Without Footy: 8th

Clearance: 8th

Post Clearance: 2nd

Total: 4th

The Giants only sit 10th as we embark on Round 14, but their profile suggests they should be higher on the ladder. Adam Kingsley has his side raring from an offensive perspective – ranking second for ball movement – while his defence is holding up with Sam Taylor back in the side. GWS has the fourth-best overall profile in the competition, and it ranks as the best among these eight teams; a decent indicator of its trajectory as we tick into the business end of the season. A tough Marvel Stadium clash with St Kilda shapes as a curveball this weekend, but the Giants should be winning regularly for the rest of the campaign, set to benefit from upcoming match-ups with Carlton (home), Essendon, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast (at home) and West Coast. We’d be surprised if they’re not playing finals.

11th. COLLINGWOOD (5-7-1, 99.2%)

With Footy: 11th

Without Footy: 9th

Clearance: 14th

Post Clearance: 16th

Total: 12th

Scoring and generating shots at goal have been key Collingwood issues this year, along with a glaring shortcoming in the centre square. The Magpies rank 13th for scoring and 15th for shots at goal, which has held them back, despite actually rating decently well for points from turnover (7th) and ball movement (7th). It doesn’t look like a bad profile on paper, but overall, it rates as the second-worst among these eight teams; better only than the Bulldogs. It’s unsurprising that Collingwood is chasing Lachie Neale as a free agent, considering it ranks dead-last for clearances and fifth-last for stoppage-scoring differential. The Pies have a middle-of-the-pack run home in terms of opponents – they’ve got Port Adelaide, Richmond and North Melbourne among their next four, but then have to deal with the likes of Adelaide (away), Geelong, Hawthorn and Brisbane in the back end. It’s going to be a very intriguing end to the year for Craig McRae’s side, which looks every chance of being right on the edge of the wildcard spots come the end of the regular season.

12th. ST KILDA (5-8, 101.9%)

With Footy: 9th

Without Footy: 10th

Clearance: 3rd

Post Clearance: 10th

Total: 8th

The Saints aren’t spectacular in any one area, but their overall profile on balance suggests they’re doing a few things right – and, really, they should be 6-7, not 5-8, after last Sunday. They’re third at clearance, but while they rate as above average in scoring from stoppage, they still rank 10th in the metric. Of course, capitalising on their superior centre-square work would be easier with their forward spearhead healthy, but the Saints just have to keep making do in the meantime. Ross Lyon’s sides have historically been consistently defensively stout, but while St Kilda is ninth for points against, it’s 15th for opposition points from turnover. However, the Saints are on the favourable side as it pertains to their remaining opponents, with upcoming winnable fixtures against Essendon, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond, and a home clash with Gold Coast to round out their home-and-away campaign. If they can capitalise there and win a few more close ones, the Saints should make some top-10 noise ahead of September.