While the NRL action continues on Friday night, all the talk is still about NSW’s stunning collapse against Queensland and what potential changes Laurie Daley could make for this year’s State of Origin decider.
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Specifically, all eyes are on the centres with a potential seven-way shootout for just two spots in the run-on side.
Round 16
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Kotoni Staggs and Tolu Koula are the incumbents from Game 2, but a poor performance from Staggs — particularly in defence — has seen his spot come under the microscope.
Koula, meanwhile, was first named on the wing earlier in the series before injuries forced him into his more natural spot at centre.
But with a host of big names on the verge of returning, there is still a chance Koula could shift to the wing.
Here, foxsports.com.au looks at where NSW’s seven leading centres sit in the Red Bull High Flyer Rankings and who have been the most impactful players at the position this season.
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HOW THE PREDICTED SCORE VALUE (PSV) IS CALCULATED
But first, before we get into the numbers here is a quick reminder of how exactly the predicted score value (PSV) is calculated and captures the impact of every player.
For starters, it is worth clarifying that PSV is not a score out of 10. Instead, each player is ranked relative to their PSV, a model which measures how much each player contributes to the final scoreboard.
The system processes more than 15,000 data points per game, analysing every run, pass, kick, error and penalty as the game unfolds.
The model is based on deriving the intrinsic value of every single action that occurs in a match relative to the final scoreboard using a proprietary AI model.
It means that every moment in the game is assessed based on how it changes a team’s likelihood of scoring.
For instance, if Latrell Mitchell records linebreak or linebreak assist which improves South Sydney’s chance of points, he gains PSV.
If Mitchell concedes a penalty or drop the ball, however, it reduces the chance of scoring points and his PSV decreases accordingly.
These changes are tracked across the entire game to produce a total performance value for every player, allowing them to be ranked based on their overall impact on the game rather than just traditional statistics.
Because every action is valued on the same scale, PSV allows players across different positions to be compared fairly and highlights the moments that have the biggest influence on the result.
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1. Tom Trbojevic
PSV: Total +5.99, Run +4.29, Pass +2.96, Score +0.65, Error -1.63
Of course, Trbojevic’s PSV numbers are specifically in reference to his performances at fullback this year and the Manly superstar was looking at his best before injury unfortunately cut his revival short.
Still, Trbojevic is back this week and has enough time to prove to Laurie Daley that he simply has to play a role in the decider, even if it is in the centres with James Tedesco and Dylan Edwards locked into a battle for one fullback spot.
Trbojevic has the highest PSV score of all contenders for a spot in the centres, with a total score of +5.75, which is greatly aided by a monster +4.29 run score.
2. Latrell Mitchell
PSV: Total +5.75, Run +3.53, Pass +2.84, Score +1.31, Error -1.69
Another player who would be a near automatic selection if healthy.
Latrell Mitchell has thrived since permanently making the move to the centres at South Sydney and is also nearing a return for the Rabbitohs, who have the bye this week.
Mitchell, whose PSV numbers only just fall short of Trbojevic, is expected to figure in South Sydney’s next match-up against Parramatta, which would give him a few weeks to impress Daley and do enough to force his way into the team for Game 2.
3. Bradman Best
PSV: Total +5.01, Run +2.34, Pass +3.47, Score +0.15, Error -0.85
The forgotten man.
Best would have been up there in calculations for an Origin call-up before suffering a calf injury at training that ruled him out of contention.
The Knights centre returns this week though and is one of the more underrated players at the position considering how dominant he has been over recent years, especially in attack.
Best has been particularly effective at drawing in his defenders and setting up tries, with the Knights centre ranking first in the league at the position for try assists.
4. Casey McLean
PSV: Total +4.17, Run +2.90, Pass +1.76, Score +0.37, Error -0.74
It would be hard to leave the Panthers centre out, with the PSV numbers speaking to just how impressive McLean’s second season in the NRL has been.
However, McLean is expected to miss the next few weeks and so it is unlikely he will have enough time to press his claims and prove he is fit enough to take his place in the decider.
Still, McLean has very much established himself as both a standout player at centre now and in the future, with the kind of footwork and pure athleticism that makes him hard to tackle while he has also significantly improved his defensive decision-making.
5. Tolu Koula
PSV: Total +3.14, Run +3.48, Pass +1.59, Score +0.29, Error -1.48
The versatile Koula can play anywhere across the backline and would be unlucky to miss out on a starting spot for the Suncorp decider.
Koula does the majority of his damage with his running game, using his sheer pace and underrated power to beat defenders.
6. Stephen Crichton
PSV: Total +2.60, Run +2.25, Pass +1.13, Score +1.00, Error -1.16
Another one that will likely hinge on health.
The Blues opted against bringing Stephen Crichton to camp for Game 2 as he continues to battle a lingering shoulder injury.
Crichton said in the Bulldogs’ game before the bye that he had never felt better, so maybe with even more time to recover he will be ready to go for the decider.
Crichton’s PSV numbers are slightly underwhelming compared to his peers, which is hardly surprising given he has been playing the majority of the year injured.
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7. Kotoni Staggs
PSV: Total +0.94, Run +2.15, Pass +0.9, Score +0.49, Error -1.82
Staggs’ spot seems to be in jeopardy after he was exposed in defence in Game 2, while he also came up with a number of poor passes deep inside Blues territory that put NSW under pressure.
That speaks to the high-upside, high-risk profile that Staggs has as a player, and that is born out too in the PSV numbers.
Staggs’ total number is the lowest of all the contenders to line up in the centres at Suncorp Stadium in Game 3.
He does most of the damage with the ball in hand, with his +2.15 run score lower but still comparable to Best and Crichton.
He has been a bit too error-prone though, and so he is one of those players that won’t score as well in the PSV given he is more likely to see variation and spikes due to the negative plays.
RED BULL HIGH FLYER TOP 10 — Centres (minimum 10 games played)
1. Casey McLean — +4.17
2. Herbie Farnworth — +3.58
3. Robert Toia — +3.11
4. KL Iro — +2.76
5. Stephen Crichton — +2.60
6. Tom Chester — +2.59
7. Jack Howarth — +2.45
8. Bronson Xerri — +2.43
9. Valentine Holmes — +2.17
10. Ali Leiataua — +1.95
As for how centres as a whole this year have faired, Penrith’s Casey McLean comes out on top out of players who have made at least 10 appearances this year.
But Herbie Farnworth is not close behind, while Queensland State of Origin representative Robert Toia rounds out the top three.
One of the more surprising names to feature inside the top-10 is Valentine Holmes, who has had a down year at the Dragons.
However, that can be explained by the fact the PSV model captures how scoring actions such as linebreaks or offloads and negative plays like errors and penalties impact the result as opposed to defensive decision-making.
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