The positive noise around Josh Fraser continues to grow louder after the interim coach secured his fifth consecutive win in charge of the Blues.
And while he’s previously claimed he doesn’t want the permanent job, he’s ticking the boxes as a genuine candidate for the gig, should he change his mind. But there’s a cautionary tale at Princes Park.
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Round 15
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Carlton is now 5-0 in the post-Michael Voss era – with several winnable fixtures upcoming – and the multiple changes Fraser has been able to influence mean Blues fans can dare to dream about finals.
Their fifth triumph came over the Giants on Saturday, with the 14th-placed Blues moving to within one win and percentage of Gold Coast in ninth spot.
“It is the Josh Fraser effect. It’s been an extraordinary turnaround, and significantly, the biggest defensive turnaround in the game under this man,” First Crack’s Jay Clark said on Sunday night on Fox Footy.
“Five weeks ago, if you’d said Carlton was going to make finals, we wouldn’t have believed you … but they’ve gone 5-0, they’ve got West Coast and Richmond to come, and it could be 7-0.
“What does Graham Wright do about Josh Fraser if he makes it into finals? Because at the moment, it’s going to be the most examined force in football over the next 48 hours.
At the heart of what the Blues are doing is what Clark called “a defensive masterclass”, with Fraser’s charges making head-turning improvements from the Voss era.
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CARLTON UNDER VOSS
Points against: 15th
Score per inside-50 against: 12th
Chain-to-score against: 14th
Defensive 50 to inside-50 against: 16th
CARLTON UNDER FRASER
Points against: 2nd
Score per inside-50 against: 2nd
Chain-to-score against: 2nd
Defensive 50 to inside-50 against: 4th
“Under Michael Voss, they leaked like a sieve … under Fraser, they are holding up the opposition,” Clark said.
“Not only their overall score, but even when the ball gets inside 50, the opposition is finding it very hard to score.
“That’s down to organisation, the pressure has gone through the roof, the structure, the commitment from the players – that’s at the heart of it.”
The backline has been held up by Rising Star candidate Harry Dean – who had nine intercepts against the Giants – and shrewd recruit Wade Derksen in the injury absence of Jacob Weitering.
But Carlton’s marked improvement under the interim coach isn’t limited to defensive performance, with the Blues also making strides in crucial offensive measures.
They’re now punishing teams off more front-half turnovers, in a way they weren’t able to under Voss.
UNDER VOSS
Forward-half intercepts: 16th
Points from forward half: 16th
Points from turnover: 16th
UNDER FRASER
Forward-half intercepts: 6th
Points from forward half: 9th
Points from turnover: 12th
Watch the full First Crack breakdown below:
What is the Fraser effect? | 06:20
Fraser has stated on numerous occasions that he doesn’t want the head-coaching gig at Carlton on a permanent basis, but the noise of support is growing for the former Collingwood ruckman.
Clark ran through his seven-point checklist for Fraser to win the long-term Blues job, with three prerequisites already ticked off.
– Make finals (question mark)
– Modern game style (yes)
– Develop talent (yes)
– Foster environment (yes)
– Manage club (question mark)
– Perform under pressure (question mark)
– Desire to do the job (question mark)
“Let’s be honest – he (Fraser) was nowhere at the start of this process. To storm home, he needs to make finals – that means they need to win six of their last nine games,” Clark continued.
“Modern game style – that’s what they wanted from Voss, and he wasn’t able to deliver that. This is seemingly that.
“Can you manage the club? That’s a question mark, because this is still the honeymoon period. And then can they perform under pressure?
“At the moment, this is a free swing – there’s no pressure, no expectation. If they are in the mix for finals, then that will start to ramp up.
“And does he have the desire to do the job? You can’t pick a bloke who, for all intents and purposes, says that he is not ready. So that would have to change throughout the back half of the season.”
Three games are set to make or break the Blues’ shock finals bid: Hawthorn in Round 18, Brisbane in Round 21, and Fremantle in Round 24.
“They’re tougher games; that’s when the expectations and pressure rise, and that’s where, traditionally, Carlton has failed,” Clark said.
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Asked if he thought Fraser was a serious coaching contender at Carlton, dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna said on First Crack: “He’s certainly given them some questions.
“He’s going to give them headaches, because I think, it sounded like, Graham Wright ideally wasn’t going to waver in trying to find the best first-time coach.
“That’s where he’s been able to be successful in the past – identifying Sam Mitchell and Craig McRae – and I think they probably still want to go down that path.
“I think the wins and losses are important, but you’ve also got to factor in what it’s like to play now with the anxiety-free football they’re playing. How much do you take that into consideration, that there is no pressure on them at the moment?
“Because that’s got to be a factor, and I suppose that’s why you want to see more body of work at the back end of the season, when the pressure ramps up again … to see how they handle it and how the team responds.”
Two-time flag-winner David King mentioned that previous Carlton interim-turned-permanent-coach David Teague won five of his first seven games in charge.
“In the last 11 games (in 2019), he went 6-5. Then he was given the gig, because the groundswell of support was enormous,” King said.
“They go 7-10 the next year and finish 11th, 8-14 the year after that to finish 13th, and he’s gone. So that, to me, is something that they’ll find difficult to erase.
“They can’t (punish Fraser for that), but you can learn from history, can’t you? You don’t have to necessarily punish someone, but you’ve got to make this a factor.
“Paul Roos – he won five of his last six games when he took over (as caretaker) … next year they made the prelim, then they made the semi, then they won the grand final. That’s (the success) you’re talking about.”
King, overall, stated his opinion that Fraser’s ability to “coach the game” is not a “separating factor” compared to other prospective candidates.
“All the (candidates) who sit in front of that panel will be able to coach … managing the club, handling the pressure of the role, being able to be cutting edge – all those things in the one package are bloody hard to find,” he said.
“And that’s why teams have gone 10 years without finding one.”
Fraser will certainly answer more coaching questions when he appears as a guest on Fox Footy’s AFL 360 on Monday night.
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