What Socceroos need to progress from Group D, result needed vs Paraguay, round of 32 game AEST start time, who they can play

Let’s start with the most important part: beat or draw with Paraguay, and Australia will finish 2nd in the group. But it can get a bit more complex than that…

The path to a maiden World Cup knockouts win is harder than the Socceroos would’ve hoped, after an unfavourable set of results in Group G.

The Socceroos go into the final groups matchday guaranteed of finishing 2nd or 3rd in the group, with Turkiye already eliminated, and a point against Paraguay will lock in second place and an easier round-of-32 clash.

That game would be played against the Group G runner-up at 4am AEST on Saturday July 4 in Dallas.

However earlier this week Belgium, the projected Group G winner and top seed, drew with Iran while Egypt came back to beat New Zealand.

That left Egypt as group favourite, ahead of their final day clash with Iran, who are now tied on two points with Belgium (who will face NZ).

While Belgium could still win the group on goal difference if Iran beats Egypt or they draw, the Belgians are now the most likely opponent for Australia in the round of 32. That may not sound terrifying but they do sit 10th in the FIFA rankings.

The winner of that game would then face either the Group J winner (Argentina) or the Group H runner-up (likely Cabo Verde, after their two surprising draws) in the round of 16.

Meanwhile the scenarios if the Socceroos finish in third – which will happen with a loss to Paraguay – have narrowed.

As long as the Socceroos aren’t thrashed they should survive as one of the eight highest-ranked third-place teams – but would very likely face Germany in the round-of-32.

That game would be played at 6:30am AEST on Tuesday June 30 in Boston.

The alternative would be facing France at 7am AEST on Wednesday July 1 in New York, though the chances of drawing Germany are over 10 times greater.

As of Thursday afternoon, Australia has a 35% chance to face Germany, a 33% chance to face Belgium, a 9% chance to face Iran or Egypt respectively, a 4% chance to face New Zealand, and a 1% chance to face France.

Should the Socceroos lose to Paraguay they would have just 3 points and a negative goal difference – but The Athletic has estimated a team with 3 points and a -1 goal difference had an 85% chance to advance to the knockouts, a 71% chance to advance with -2 GD, 54% with -3 and 40% with -4.

Already two confirmed third-place teams have a worse record than the Socceroos, but the Socceroos would be below one of them (South Korea) with a two-goal loss to Paraguay.

3rd place rankings as of Thursday afternoon

1. Bosnia and Herzegovina (4 pts, -1 GD)

2. Sweden (3 pts, 0 GD)*

Australia would be here (3 pts, 0 GD) but is currently 2nd in Group D

3. Croatia (3 pts, -1 GD)*

4. South Korea (3 pts, -1 GD)

5. Algeria (3 pts, -2 GD)*

6. Paraguay (3 pts, -2 GD)*

7. Scotland (3 pts, -3 GD)

8. Cabo Verde (2 pts, 0 GD)*

—

9. Belgium (2 pts, 0 GD)*

10. Ecuador (1 pt, -1 GD)*

11. DR Congo (1 pt, -1 GD)*

12. Senegal (0 pts, -3 GD)*

* = still to play

Heading into the final matchday, the Socceroos are given a 91% chance to advance to the knockouts, with an 80% chance to advance even with a loss to Paraguay.

Results that would help Australia out include:

– Germany def Ecuador and Cote d’Ivoire def Curacao;

– Japan def Sweden;

– Senegal to not defeat Iraq;

– Spain def Uruguay;

– Egypt def Iran (though this makes playing higher-ranked Belgium in the round-of-32 more likely).

But let’s keep it simple – get a point against Paraguay, and the Socceroos are definitely safe.

Whether they can go any further is another matter.

THE TEAMS THAT MIGHT WANT TO LOSE ON FINAL MATCHDAY

44 years ago, Austria and Algeria were involved in the infamous Disgrace of Gijon – the former happily losing to West Germany on the final groups matchday to eliminate the latter.

That incident forced changes to the World Cup schedule with final group games all played at the same time, so teams could not coordinate favourable results knowing exactly what was at stake.

Ironically Austria and Algeria now find themselves in a situation where they may want to lose to the other team in their Group J match, in order to avoid a tougher round-of-32 opponent.

Argentina has already won the group, and a draw will see both Austria and Algeria advance. However whoever finishes second in the group looks almost certain to face Spain in the knockouts.

Whoever finishes third, though, will already know exactly how many goals they can concede while still being one of the highest-ranked third-placers overall. (Algeria, currently on -2 goal difference, is at much greater risk here while Austria is likely safe on 0.)

And finishing third should earn that team a more favourable match against the Group B winner (Switzerland), Group D winner (USA) or Group G winner (Iran, Egypt or Belgium), instead of Spain.

Austria vs Algeria is the final group match of the tournament meaning they’ll know exactly what’s at stake. Things could get… weird.

Potential Round of 32 game times for Australia

If advancing as third-place team and they draw Group E winner

Tuesday June 30, 6:30am at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough (Boston)

If advancing as third-place team and they draw Group I winner

Wednesday July 1, 7am at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford (New York)

If advancing as group winner, facing third-placer from Group B/E/F/I/J

Thursday July 2, 10am at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara (San Francisco)

If advancing as group runner-up, facing Group G runner-up

Saturday July 4, 4am at AT&T Stadium, Arlington (Dallas)

If advancing as third-place team and they draw Group K winner

Saturday July 4, 11:30am at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

HOW ARE THE THIRD-PLACERS ADVANCING TO THE KNOCKOUT STAGE DETERMINED?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout bracket has 495 possible combinations based on which groups provide the best third-place teams.

For example, if groups A, B, C, D, E, F, G and H provide the best third-placers, ahead of groups I, J, K and L, that would be one scenario and see a predetermined arrangement of round of 32 match-ups – and so on.

For what it’s worth, third-placers will likely only need three points and a non-negative goal difference from their three group stage matches to advance, based on simulations.

For Australia in Group D, if they finish third they can be drawn against the winner of Group E, I or K.

But some scenarios are more common than others. In around 64% of scenarios the Socceroos would face the Group E winner (Germany ), in 30% would face the Group I winner (France or Norway), and in around 6% would face the Group K winner (Portugal or Colombia).

The most likely match, against the Group E winner, would be played at 6:30am AEST on Tuesday June 30 in Boston.

Some group winners cannot be drawn at all, because they’re locked in to face the runner-up of another group instead – this is the case with Groups C and F (whose winners will face each other’s runners-up), and with Groups H and J.

WHO THE THIRD-PLACERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FACE IN THE KNOCKOUTS

Based on pre-tournament group favourites and number of scenarios

If qualifying from Group A (Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia)

95.2% G winner (Egypt favourite), 4.8% E winner (Germany)

If qualifying from Group B (Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland)

99.7% D winner (USA), 0.3% E winner (Germany)

If qualifying from Group C (Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland)

70% E winner (Germany), 29.4% A winner (Mexico), 0.6% I winner (France favourite)

If qualifying from Group D (USA, Paraguay, Australia, Türkiye)

64.2% E winner (Germany), 30% I winner (France favourite), 5.8% K winner (Portugal favourite)

If qualifying from Group E (Germany, Curacao, Cote d’Ivoire, Ecuador)

55.2% A winner (Mexico), 14.5% K winner (Portugal favourite), 11.8% D winner (USA), 8.5% L winner (England favourite), 7.9% B winner (Switzerland), 1.8% G favourite (Egypt favourite)

If qualifying from Group F (Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia)

83.6% I winner (France favourite), 10.6% E winner (Germany), 3.3% D winner (USA), 1.5% B winner (Switzerland), 0.9% A winner (Mexico)

If qualifying from Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand)

78.8% B winner (Switzerland), 21.2% I winner (France favourite)

If qualifying from Group H (Spain, Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay)

58.8% A winner (Mexico), 25.8% G winner (Egypt favourite), 14.5% I winner (France favourite)

If qualifying from Group I (France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway)

34.2% L winner (England favourite), 27.6% K winner (Portugal favourite), 15.8% D winner (USA), 12.4% G winner (Egypt favourite), 5.8% A winner (Mexico), 4.2% B winner (Switzerland)

If qualifying from Group J (Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan)

57.6% B winner (Switzerland), 19.4% D winner (USA), 14.8% G winner (Egypt favourite), 6.1% L winner (England favourite), 2.1% K winner (Portugal favourite)

If qualifying from Group K (Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia)

100% L winner (England favourite)

If qualifying from Group L (England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama)

100% K winner (Portugal favourite)

ALL POSSIBLE SOCCEROOS ROUND OF 32 OPPONENTS

If Australia finishes second in Group D

The runner-up from Group G

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran or New Zealand

If Australia finishes third in Group D and is one of the eight best-ranked teams

The winner of Group E, Group I or Group K (most likely E)

Group E: Germany

Group I: France or Norway

Group K: Portugal or Colombia

Who Australia cannot play in the Round of 32

A team from Group A, Group C, Group D, Group H or Group L

Group A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea or Czechia

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti or Scotland

Group D: USA, Paraguay or Türkiye

Group H: Spain, Cabo Verde, Saudi Arabia or Uruguay

Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana or Panama