AFL 2026, The Run Home after Round 19

Sydney’s sudden slide has opened up the race for the top two – while Essendon has, unbelievably, had an impact on the wildcard race.

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture with five rounds left and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out, ahead of the AFL’s first 10-team finals series. See our predicted final ladder below.

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How does The Run Home work?

We’re trying to predict who makes the top 10, but it’s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.

It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.

At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we’re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 1000 times.

PROJECTED FINALS BRACKET

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium

First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Adelaide Crows vs TBC at Adelaide Oval

First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Geelong vs St Kilda at the MCG

Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Melbourne vs TBC at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG

The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Fremantle (19.65 projected wins)

2. Sydney Swans (16.75)

3. Hawthorn (16.15)

4. Brisbane Lions (15.35)

5. Adelaide Crows (15.3)

6. Melbourne (14.7)

7. Geelong (13.8)

8. Western Bulldogs (13.5)

9. Collingwood (12.45)

10. St Kilda (11)

11. GWS Giants (10.75)

12. Carlton (10.35)

13. North Melbourne (9.3)

14. Gold Coast Suns (9)

15. Port Adelaide (8)

16. West Coast Eagles (5.4)

17. Richmond (2.9)

18. Essendon (2.7)

The Bombers are 18th because they’re less likely to win another game, but have a clear percentage edge and should be favoured for 17th.

Key Talking Points

– Fremantle will be minor premiers for the first time since 2015;

– Sydney’s three losses from their past four games have created a true race for 2nd spot, though the Swans are still favoured because of a relatively easy run home (next week vs GWS excepted) and a strong percentage;

– Hawthorn has the best chance of catching them, because they don’t care about percentage, but has to play away to Brisbane in a few weeks’ time. Adelaide is an outside chance with a few tougher games and Melbourne would need everything to go right, but is still in it;

– More realistically, the Crows pretty much ensured they’ll finish in the top six by beating the Swans. Geelong stayed in the hunt by beating the Saints, but can probably only catch the Demons from here, with next Friday night’s Cats-Dees game at the MCG absolutely massive. The loser will be favoured to finish seventh and get stuck in the wildcard round;

– The Western Bulldogs are almost locked into the finals, given they’ve got 11 wins and Richmond next week. With their percentage there’s a slim chance they’d miss with 12, and little chance they’d crack the top six, so it’s whether they’re finishing 7th or 8th;

– What the hell, GWS?!

– Collingwood should now play finals with one more win (and they get West Coast in a few weeks’ time), and will definitely make it with two;

– The Giants’ awful loss to the Bombers means St Kilda is now projected to make the ten, with the best chance of reaching that magical 12-win mark. GWS can still definitely get to 11, but they’d need to beat a contender for a 12th win (though to be fair we’d have more confidence in them as underdogs than as favourites);

– Even though they’re just percentage out of 10th, Carlton’s path to the finals is tough, because of their poor percentage and games left against Brisbane and Fremantle. They wouldn’t win a tie on 11 wins, and nor would North Melbourne (and they’ve got an even tougher run home), while Gold Coast is basically done. We wouldn’t say the top 10 race is down to 11 teams… but we’d still need a few more upsets for anyone outside of the top 11 to make it.

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order. All times AEST.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This somewhat advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.

1. FREMANTLE (16-2, 142%)

Remaining games

Round 20: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 23: Adelaide at Optus Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest

Just two teams have ever won 21 home and away games – the 2000 Bombers, and the 2008 Cats – though both of those sides only lost once in their 22-game campaigns. If you take season length into account, the Dockers can produce the seventh-best season in V/AFL history by winning their five remaining games (also behind the 1929 Magpies, the 1908 Blues, the 1950 Bombers and 1918 Swans). As the number below suggests, the odds are the Dockers will drop one more game, but that would only matter for record purposes. After Sydney’s loss, they look like certainties for the minor premiership.

Fox Footy’s projection: 19.65 wins, finishing 1st

2. SYDNEY SWANS (13-5, 128.3%)

Remaining games

Round 20: GWS at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 22: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 23: Essendon at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: North Melbourne at the SCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest

Well, this losing skid is exactly why you win 12 of your first 14 games while building a percentage of nine bajillion. The Swans have given up most of their lead in the top-two race, but not all of it, effectively still sitting two wins ahead of Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne due to their strong percentage. It’s theoretically possible they could be caught on that metric by those sides, but very unlikely. The bigger problem is Hawthorn, who with that additional two points from the draw don’t care about percentage, and have a pretty easy run… except for Round 22, when they’re away to Brisbane. If the Lions beat the Hawks, the Swans should still finish second as long as they win four of their last five, with their hardest remaining fixture being next week’s Sydney Derby. So, Swans fans, there’s no reason to panic… yet. (Although the fact your team can’t beat another contender doesn’t bode well for September.)

Fox Footy’s projection: 16.75 wins, finishing 2nd

3. HAWTHORN (12-5-1, 118.4%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Essendon at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 21: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm

Round 22: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest

And suddenly they’ve got a real shot at finishing second. In a way, Adelaide’s win over Sydney was a mixed bag, because it gives the Crows a better chance of passing the Hawks; but it also gives the Hawks a much better chance of passing the Swans, and earning a home qualifying final. Both sides have an easy last five weeks outside of one game – the Sydney Derby for the Swans, and the Brisbane road trip for the Hawks – but importantly Sam Mitchell’s men don’t care about Sydney’s percentage lead. So if the Hawks win their last five, and the Swans slip up just one more time, it’s a qualifying final at the MCG instead of the SCG. At the other end of the scale Hawthorn could still miss the top four though they’d probably need to lose twice (most likely to Brisbane and Collingwood?), because Adelaide and Melbourne both have hard games against Fremantle left.

Fox Footy’s projection: 16.15 wins, finishing 3rd

4. BRISBANE LIONS (12-6, 117.8%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Port Adelaide at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm

Round 22: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

Round 23: Gold Coast at the Gabba, details TBC

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest

The Lions and Hawks were in a similar situation, needing to take care of business against lowly sides (tick and tick) after watching Sydney vs Adelaide with interest. Either way it was a good result; the Crows losing would’ve given Brisbane a lot of breathing room in the top-four race, but now second spot remains gettable. We still have Sydney warmly favoured, especially since their percentage edge over Brisbane and Adelaide is basically like another win, and because we have Hawthorn expected to lose at least once (to Brisbane). The Lions probably would’ve preferred the Crows losing, simply because making the top four at all is more important than a slightly improved chance of finishing second, especially with this side’s strong track record of winning finals interstate. Still, a good weekend nonetheless.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.35 wins, finishing 4th

5. ADELAIDE CROWS (12-6, 117.2%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 21: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm

Round 22: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: GWS at Adelaide Oval, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest

The Crows did themselves (along with Hawthorn, Brisbane and Melbourne) a huge favour by upsetting Sydney on Friday night. Not only has it massively increased Adelaide’s chances of making the top four but it has opened up second spot. Admittedly it’s still unlikely the Crows pinch it, because with Sydney’s percentage edge they’re effectively two wins ahead, so Matthew Nicks would have primarily been pleased to get four very valuable points. The last two weeks will be tricky, but if Adelaide wins its next three games it will sit inside the top four (ahead of the loser of Brisbane-Hawthorn in Round 22), and probably with a better percentage thanks to those games against the Bombers and Tigers. In that scenario, even with a loss to Fremantle, the Crows should go into Round 24 with a shot at third or fourth.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.3 wins, finishing 5th

6. MELBOURNE (12-6, 109.6%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Geelong at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

Round 21: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 22: Fremantle at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest

The Demons are, remarkably, still a chance of finishing 2nd – they’d probably need to win out while Sydney loses twice, and Hawthorn, Brisbane and Adelaide all lose once. That’s not a crazy scenario but it’s not super likely either. More realistically, the Dees just need to focus on next week against Geelong, because beating Steven King’s old side would virtually lock them into the top six. The top four would be a very live possibility too, though percentage is an issue. Should the Cats win, and the Dees then drop one more game (presumably to Fremantle), then King’s men (all of them) are likely to finish 7th. Which would still be exciting, and have them favoured in an MCG final, but this team is good enough to aim for more than just a wildcard participation trophy.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.7 wins, finishing 6th

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (11-7, 93.2%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Richmond at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm

Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-easiest

Sunday’s win over the Suns should get the Bulldogs into the finals. With their percentage, there are scenarios where they’d miss the top 10 with 12 wins, but it’s very unlikely especially after GWS’ loss to Essendon. Even though we’re down on the Dogs more broadly, having beaten Gold Coast (plus a few genuine contenders – even if the margins were tight!), they’re definitely good enough to beat at least one of Richmond, North Melbourne or Carlton. Their percentage probably still means they can’t crack the top six though; their realistic best-case scenario would be going into Round 24 playing Melbourne for 6th. (The Bulldogs playing for position in the final round? Nah, that’d never happen.)

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.5 wins, finishing 8th

8. COLLINGWOOD (10-7-1, 105.6%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 21: Geelong at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 22: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: Brisbane at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest

They’ve got a two-and-a-half win margin with five weeks left, and they may need all of it. The Magpies’ post-bye period was always going to be split in two – the easy bit (where they’ve gone 5-0) and the hard bit, which starts this Thursday night in Adelaide. One win could be enough to get the Pies into the finals, especially after GWS’ loss to Essendon, but two definitely will be. So assuming they can beat West Coast in a few weeks’ time – no sure thing, as Brisbane found out this weekend – they’ll have four throws at the dartboard. (The dartboard in this metaphor being the wildcard round, we guess?) They will be underdogs in all four games against the Crows, Cats, Hawks and Lions, but we suspect they’ll find a way to win at least one of them.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.45 wins, finishing 9th

9. GEELONG (10-8, 116.2%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

At least the worst-case scenario, of missing the finals entirely, should be off the table thanks to Thursday night’s win over the Saints. But with Adelaide beating Sydney, the Cats’ path to the top four looks extremely narrow. They could win out and hope for the best but it’s likely they wouldn’t pass two of Hawthorn, Brisbane and Adelaide. So the real question is whether they can return to the top six, and that’ll be decided in the most important game of the home and away season left (period) – next week against Melbourne. If the Cats lose to the Demons, it’s very hard to see them avoiding the wildcard round. If the Cats win, then they just need to take care of business in their last four games, while hoping Melbourne loses once more (probably to Fremantle in Round 22). Massive game… though without Max Holmes none of this may matter, anyway.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.8 wins, finishing 7th

10. ST KILDA (8-10, 104%)

Remaining games

Round 20: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 21: Sydney at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 22: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest

Thanks, Essendon! Thursday night was one of the Saints’ worst performances of the year, but the Bombers’ utterly bonkers upset of GWS sees them move into our projected top 10, with a much clearer path to the magical number of 12 wins. Beat the Kangaroos, Blues, Tigers and Suns as they should and St Kilda will play finals. Even if they beat three of them, they could make it on percentage. Whatever happens from here there’s a good chance St Kilda vs Gold Coast is the ‘live ladder watch’ game in Round 24, where the Saints have to win by a certain amount to play finals (or host one?).

Fox Footy’s projection: 11 wins, finishing 11th

11. GWS GIANTS (8-10, 101.3%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Sydney at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 6:35pm

Round 22: Gold Coast at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm

Round 23: West Coast at ENGIE Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

Luckily for the Giants, and for Melbourne, the AFL has not yet passed a rule that says you can’t play finals if you lose to Essendon. They’re now the least predictable team in footy history, somehow beating Fremantle and Brisbane yet losing to Essendon and West Coast. It all evens out in the end, we guess? But it also means the orange team has to figure out what the hell went wrong in that awful performance, and fix it for next Saturday’s derby. 12 wins should definitely get you into the finals now, but we would only have them favoured in three of their last five… could they get stuck on 11 wins, and miss out? They’ve at least got a percentage lead on Carlton and North Melbourne.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.75 wins, finishing 10th

12. CARLTON (8-10, 91.1%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm