AFL 2026, The Run Home after Round 20

Collingwood might be footy’s hottest team, but escaping the wildcard will be much harder than it looks… and it sure looks like nine teams are already locked into the finals.

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture with four rounds left and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out, ahead of the AFL’s first 10-team finals series. See our predicted final ladder below.

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How does The Run Home work?

We’re trying to predict who makes the top 10, but it’s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.

It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.

At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we’re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 1000 times.

PROJECTED FINALS BRACKET

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium

First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Adelaide Crows vs TBC at Adelaide Oval

First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Melbourne vs St Kilda at the MCG

Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Geelong vs TBC at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG

The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Fremantle (19.85 projected wins)

2. Sydney Swans (17.15)

3. Hawthorn (16.1)

4. Brisbane Lions (15.65)

5. Adelaide Crows (14.55)

6. Geelong (14.15)

7. Melbourne (14.15)

8. Western Bulldogs (13.7)

9. Collingwood (13.4)

10. St Kilda (11.45)

11. Carlton (10.55)

12. GWS Giants (10.45)

13. North Melbourne (9.05)

14. Gold Coast Suns (8.4)

15. Port Adelaide (7.85)

16. West Coast Eagles (5.25)

17. Richmond (2.7)

18. Essendon (2.6)

The Bombers are 18th because they’re less likely to win another game, but have a solid percentage edge and would be favoured for 17th.

Key Talking Points

– The top nine teams will all play finals unless something crazy happens. You can take this however you like: if the AFL hadn’t introduced the wildcard, we’d have the exact same situation as last season, with nine teams fighting for eight spots and then a bunch of dead rubbers. We prefer this, even if the race for 10th is barely relevant to the premiership fight (other than their chances of ending 7th’s season early in the wildcard round);

– It’d be silly to say the top four is locked with how tight the ladder still is, but it’s overwhelmingly likely Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn and Brisbane will be playing in the qualifying finals. The Hawks and Lions hold what’s effectively a two-win lead over the chasing pack, with pretty easy remaining draws, and the Swans’ lead is basically three wins given their percentage;

– The most realistic scenario where someone else gets into the top four involves Hawthorn or Brisbane losing twice (they play each other, and both play Collingwood), and that other team winning out. The most likely to do that is probably… Geelong, despite being ninth currently, due to their draw and strong percentage. Adelaide and Melbourne may look like likely candidates, but they both still have to play Fremantle.

– But realistically, the top four should be set, and we’re talking about the Crows, Demons, Bulldogs, Magpies and Cats all fighting for 5th and 6th. The Pies are in form but have the hardest run home, while we don’t trust the Dogs;

– St Kilda vs Carlton, which is (for some reason) Sunday night in a couple of weeks’ time, might be the most important game left this year. (Lions vs Hawks would be the other contender given the winner should avoid a qualifying final vs Freo.) If the Saints win it they probably play finals. If the Blues win it, it’s a proper race between those two and GWS;

– 12 wins is still the magic number to aim at. The Saints have a shot (need to beat three of Swans/Blues/Tigers/Suns), the Blues only have a shot if they beat the Saints (need to beat three of Lions/Saints/Dogs/Dockers), and the Giants would need to win all four (Power/Suns/Eagles/Crows). The Saints probably, but not definitely, win a tie on 11 wins.

– North Melbourne and Gold Coast need to win all their games and pray.

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order. All times AEST.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This somewhat advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.

1. FREMANTLE (17-2, 146%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 23: Adelaide at Optus Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

There’s a chance Fremantle could clinch the minor premiership next week – they just need to win, while Sydney loses to St Kilda. It would be the earliest any team has clinched top spot since Geelong in 2008. Heck, if Freo just wins period, they’ll have it virtually clinched because of their percentage. The Demons, Crows and Blues will be hoping it’s certain so they start resting players…

Fox Footy’s projection: 19.85 wins, finishing 1st

2. SYDNEY SWANS (14-5, 130%)

Remaining games

Round 21: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 22: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 23: Essendon at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: North Melbourne at the SCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest

You could fairly argue next week’s clash with the Saints is marginally tougher than playing the Giants, given ladder positions and the need to get on a plane, but we’re sticking with the line that Sydney just got through its toughest remaining test. The Derby win keeps them in second place, and combined with Adelaide and Melbourne’s losses, the Swans look very safe inside the top four. The battle now is holding onto second, and they’ve got a bit more breathing room than it appears, with Hawthorn and Brisbane playing each other in a couple of weeks’ time. That’s an extra loss for one of their closest chasers, and keep in mind they’re basically two wins ahead of Brisbane (who will be favoured vs Hawthorn) due to percentage. We would be pretty surprised if the Swans missed the 2nd vs 3rd qualifying final, because they should win at least three of their last four games, though hosting rights are still uncertain.

Fox Footy’s projection: 17.15 wins, finishing 2nd

3. HAWTHORN (13-5-1, 124%)

Remaining games

Round 21: North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium, Saturday 1:35pm

Round 22: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest

A comfortable win over the Bombers was another step towards a top-four finish, though it would’ve been nice if the Giants could’ve knocked off Sydney. Now the Hawks’ best hope of finishing second is probably St Kilda beating the Swans next week. It was still a good weekend overall because of all the chaos below the top four – Sam Mitchell’s men are effectively two wins clear of fifth with four weeks left. As long as they take care of business against North Melbourne and West Coast, they should play in a qualifying final, and beating either Brisbane or Collingwood too would guarantee it. But the prize for winning all four remaining games, either a home qualifying final or a trip to Sydney (instead of Perth), is massive.

Fox Footy’s projection: 16.1 wins, finishing 3rd

4. BRISBANE LIONS (13-6, 120.6%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm

Round 22: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

Round 23: Gold Coast at the Gabba, details TBC

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

The Lions definitely feel like the second-best team in the comp right now, but actually finishing second seems unlikely, with the percentage gap between them and Sydney pretty sizeable. Unless the Swans lose twice (which would be odd given their draw), the Lions likely aren’t catching them. At the same time, the Lions are unlikely to drop out of the top four unless they lose twice. So we’re probably just talking about whether Brisbane can finish third, and likely face the Swans in their qualifying final, or if they’ll finish fourth and cop Freo. That should be determined by the Round 22 clash with Hawthorn, although both the Hawks and Lions still have to play the in-form Magpies which could throw a spanner in the works.

Fox Footy’s projection: 15.65 wins, finishing 4th

5. ADELAIDE CROWS (12-7, 113.7%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm

Round 22: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: GWS at Adelaide Oval, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-easiest

A horror weekend for the Crows’ top-four hopes, losing to Collingwood (keeping them in the top six race) while their ladder rivals were almost all victorious; at least Geelong beating Melbourne gives the Crows a buffer to the wildcard chasers (if only a small one). And that’s without even mentioning them poorly handling the Isaac Quaynor situation for a second straight year. If everything goes right from here Adelaide can still get the double chance, but they should be more worried about who’s behind them than who’s ahead of them now. The Bulldogs and Magpies are scarily close, but the Cats are probably a bigger threat to catch up; they’ve got the easiest draw of the trio and are probably the best team of the trio too (though Collingwood can disprove that next week). As long as the Crows win their next two, they should head into Round 24 controlling their own destiny, and if they win three of four they should still finish top six. Winning four of four, with some other results going their way, is probably required to make the top four.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.55 wins, finishing 5th

6. MELBOURNE (12-7, 96.8%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Gold Coast at People First Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 22: Fremantle at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, details TBC

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest

Unfortunately the Demons couldn’t pass their biggest test yet, and losing to Geelong means they’re again fighting to avoid the wildcard. Their remaining draw is sneaky tough, with two interstate banana peel games, Freo’s final MCG warm-up before the Grand Final, and a fellow top-six contender to finish it off. Combined with Hawthorn and Brisbane’s pretty easy runs, it’s very hard to see Melbourne making the top four now. But can they hold onto their top six spot? Even winning three of four might not keep them in there, because Geelong can catch them by winning four of four (and Adelaide can stay ahead by winning three of four). And what do you know – we have the Dees favoured in three of their remaining games, the Cats favoured to win four, and the Crows favoured to win three. So if results go as expected, Melbourne would be stuck in the wildcard. They’d be favoured against whoever sneaks into 10th, at least.

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.15 wins, finishing 7th (on percentage)

7. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-7, 96.8%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest

With 12 wins, they’re finals-bound (unless two of the Saints, Blues, Giants and Roos go unbeaten… the latter definitely won’t). And they remarkably sit just percentage out of fifth, though it’s a hell of a lot of percentage. In fact the Bulldogs control their own fate – if they win all four remaining games they will make the top six, and maybe even the top four (though percentage probably still ruins that). A more realistic scenario would involve the Dogs losing next week in Perth, then taking care of business against the Kangaroos and Blues, at which point a top-six spot could be on the line against Melbourne. They would still need results to go their way, because the winner of next week’s Collingwood-Geelong game would be favoured to finish ahead of them, and thus would need to drop another four points somewhere. If the Dogs win two more games or fewer, they’re probably stuck in the 8th-9th wildcard final we’ve been projecting them into for some time. Realistically they’re the ninth-best team in the comp right now… just like last year. Thankfully for them, the AFL now lets 10 teams into the finals.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.7 wins, finishing 8th

8. COLLINGWOOD (11-7-1, 107.6%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Geelong at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 22: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: Brisbane at the MCG, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest

We predicted last week the Magpies would win at least one of their four games left against the sides above them – and they got it done nice and early. Put simply, Collingwood can absolutely make the top six, but making the top four is much tougher. For the top six, they probably need three wins minimum including beating Geelong, because the Cats have a very easy last three weeks. If the Pies go 2-2 or worse, they should be in the wildcard. To make the top four, they’d probably have to catch Brisbane, because the Hawks are two wins and percentage ahead – so the path would be something like Pies win all four games, Lions lose twice (likely to Hawks and Pies), Crows and Dees both lose once (likely both to Freo). It’s definitely plausible but the Pies winning every game is the hardest part.

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.4 wins, finishing 9th

9. GEELONG (11-8, 116.5%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Round 24: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

The Cats’ best win since mid-May, combined with Adelaide’s loss to Collingwood, has reopened the door to the top six. If they win all four of their remaining games (and they’ll be favoured in all four) they will avoid the wildcard, unless Adelaide and Melbourne both go unbeaten too (unlikely since both still have to play Freo). There’s even a path to the top four, probably needing Brisbane to lose twice (likely to Hawthorn and Collingwood). If the Cats lose to the Magpies, though, they’d be two games out of the top six with three to play… which could only be recovered if everything goes right. Realistically, a loss to the Pies will send the Cats into the wildcard, in which case they’d be a tough draw for somebody – but more importantly aren’t gonna win the flag (because nobody’s gonna win five finals in a row).

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.15 wins, finishing 6th (on percentage)

10. ST KILDA (9-10, 105.8%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Sydney at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:05pm

Round 22: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm

Round 23: Richmond at the MCG, details TBC

Round 24: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, details TBC

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest

They’re the warm favourites for 10th after fighting off a brave North Melbourne, even gaining some handy percentage, though that Sunday night clash with Carlton in two weeks’ time is going to be absolutely enormous regardless. If the Saints win it, they should play finals, because of their pretty easy last two games giving them a clear path to 12 wins. Even if the Saints lose it, they can still get to 11 wins by beating the Tigers and Suns, and then they’d definitely beat Carlton (who will find it very tough to hit 12 wins) on percentage. The numbers disagree but we’d still have the Giants as the biggest threat to Ross Lyon’s men playing finals; they’re favoured in their next three (getting them to 11 wins), though the percentage gap between them and the Saints grew quite a lot this weekend.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.45 wins, finishing 10th

11. CARLTON (9-10, 92.4%)

Remaining games

Round 21: Brisbane at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 7:40pm