AFL 2026, Finals Power Rankings

Welcome back to the Power Rankings… Finals Edition.

The top 10 is set, and the unpredictability of the wildcard round makes it hard to predict the bracket. The Grand Finalists, though? They look obvious.

Watch the best coverage of the 2026 AFL finals series, including every game until the Grand Final LIVE with no ad-breaks during play, on Kayo. New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.

See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst heading into wildcard round below!

How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

All times AEST.

1. FREMANTLE (19-4, 137.2%)

Ladder position: 1st

The loss to Carlton really doesn’t matter at all – the Dockers didn’t go all-out resting players but it’s safe to say they weren’t trying their hardest either. And in the big picture, the weekend was fantastic for Fremantle, because the bracket has fallen perfectly for them. The only real reason to suggest they won’t make the Grand Final, after dominating the home and away season, was the idea that they’d get stage fright on prelim night. Well, they’ve gotten the easier qualifying final draw with defensively-questionable Hawthorn… and the prelim should be even easier! Assuming Brisbane beats Sydney in the other qualifying final, the Dockers are either hosting Sydney (in a very fitting tribute to 2013’s Grand Final run), Adelaide (who aren’t one of the four best teams but might get to the final four anyway) or a wildcard team (who would’ve already had to win three do-or-die finals to get there and would be comparatively exhausted). Fremantle is going to make the 2026 AFL Grand Final; they can basically spend the next month planning for how to beat Brisbane.

Next game: Qualifying final vs Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, Thursday week 8:10pm

2. BRISBANE LIONS (16-7, 121.7%)

Ladder position: 3rd

In the end, thrashing Hawthorn a few weeks ago has given Brisbane a home preliminary final. The massive percentage swing from that game decided third place and now the back-to-back premiers will be strong favourites to beat an under-strength Sydney side in their qualifying final. History still says a team that’s been this defensively questionable can’t win the flag, but the Lions are now healthy and have given themselves the best opportunity possible (without actually making the top two). They should cop a tougher prelim final opponent than Fremantle does – we’d have them playing the winner of a Hawthorn-Geelong semi; they’d feel confident against the Hawks but their clashes with the Cats are always unpredictable. Still, the Lions are favourites to make the Grand Final from here. And while Fremantle has had the better home and away season, the back-to-back champs’ experience will be a massive advantage on the day. We would not argue with you if you said Brisbane is the premiership favourite right now.

Next game: Qualifying final vs Sydney at the SCG, Saturday week 3:15pm

3. GEELONG (15-8, 122.3%)

Ladder position: 5th

The finals bracket may not fall kindly for the Cats, who have the longest active winning streak of all finalists (partially because they played most of their hard games in the first two thirds of the season). Had they finished 6th as expected, they would’ve likely hosted Adelaide in their elimination final before a winnable semi-final trip to Sydney. Instead the Cats now risk facing bogey side Carlton (who’ve won four of their last five meetings), which also wouldn’t be a real home game. Win that and they should cop the old enemy Hawthorn in a semi-final – that Easter Monday epic ended up deciding who finished fourth – while Brisbane likely awaits in a prelim. This team is good enough to win those three games, especially if Max Holmes is back, but it’s a much tougher path than it would’ve been if Melbourne had just beaten the Bulldogs. Having said that, at least they can’t face Freo in a prelim now; we think the Cats, with their experience and strong performances against Justin Longmuir’s side this year, are one of the two sides that can beat the Dockers in a Grand Final.

Next game: Elimination final vs Western Bulldogs, Collingwood or Carlton at the MCG, Friday week 7:40pm

4. HAWTHORN (15-6-2, 120.1%)

Ladder position: 4th

The five goals of percentage between them and Brisbane is probably going to end up deciding a Grand Finalist – the weather did the Hawks no favours against the Eagles as they tried in vain to overhaul the Lions’ figure. Playing Fremantle in their first final isn’t a disaster; it means you can’t play the Dockers in a prelim, and with how the Hawks have gone in the west this year, there’s at least some chance they pull the upset. The bigger problem is the ensuing game, probably a semi-final against Geelong, the Bulldogs, Carlton or Collingwood; none of those games would be easy. And you’re probably looking at a prelim at the Gabba should the Hawks survive that (where we’d have very little faith in them pulling the upset). There’s absolutely a chance Sam Mitchell’s men go out in straight sets, though we’d say that speaks more to the evenness of the pack behind Fremantle and Brisbane than them being particularly poor. The Hawks just feel a step off the best this season, but they are still better positioned than most to make a deep run this September. Being in the top four, and not the wildcard, matters a lot.

Next game: Qualifying final vs Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Thursday week 8:10pm

5. CARLTON (12-10-1, 101.5%)

Ladder position: 10th

We feel roughly as confused by the Blues as we do by the Swans, but for the opposite reason. Beating Fremantle doesn’t mean much in a literal this-is-how-good-they-are sense, because the Dockers had nothing to play for, but it will only add to this group’s confidence that they can challenge the best. Because, well, they have! The hottest team in footy heads into the finals having beaten the two premiership favourites AND their elimination final opponent (should they get there), Geelong. They have only lost two of their past 14 games; they are a really damn good footy team right now, and while they were unlucky to still finish 10th, that’s the risk they took by playing for the draw late against the Bulldogs. If you go game-by-game you can absolutely see the Blues making a deep run in this finals series; they can beat a wounded Melbourne, and they can beat Geelong, and then with huge hype building they’d likely run into Hawthorn in the semi-finals. They shouldn’t have to leave town until a potential prelim… probably at the Gabba, just like 2023. But their incredible story is also their flaw; they’ve had to play so hard just to finish 10th that, inevitably, they’re going to have an off night at some point. That could come this Saturday or it could come in a month’s time. You never know in the finals. You’re basically just flipping a coin and hoping it keeps coming up heads; coming from 10th you’ve got more chances to hit tails.

Next game: Wildcard final vs Carlton at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm

6. MELBOURNE (15-8, 109.6%)

Ladder position: 7th

Clearly the biggest losers of Round 24, the Demons’ incredible season could now very easily end without them even making an elimination final. That would be a massive shame given how good they’ve been this year, as they become the first true victim of the expansion to 10 finalists. It’s definitely unlucky that they’re copping the hottest team in the comp, Carlton, instead of Collingwood or even the Bulldogs again (we know they just lost to them but we’d tip the Demons in a rematch). The silver lining is if Steven King’s men can get through the wildcard round, the path opens up. Adelaide in Adelaide wouldn’t be an easy elimination final match-up, but it’s probably the best option on the board, and after that the Demons could draw the under-strength Swans in a semi-final. Remember, they took it up to Sydney at the SCG earlier this season, too. So if the Dees can get through this week, we think they’re a great shout of making a prelim… but they’ve also copped a rash of absences at the worst possible time, and Saturday night will feel like a Blues home game. We will be happy for whichever team wins that game; it’s a great story either way. It’s also a sad story for the loser, and sadder if the Demons lose, given how good they’ve been all season.

Next game: Wildcard final vs Carlton at the MCG, Saturday 7:35pm

7. ADELAIDE CROWS (15-8, 117.3%)

Ladder position: 6th

There are two main reasons why the Crows can make a prelim, and make amends for last year’s straight sets exit. One is the draw; the Demons’ loss to the Bulldogs didn’t just save the Crows from the wildcard but propelled them into the most favourable position in the bracket outside of the top three. They’d rather not face the Magpies again but should it be the Demons or Dogs coming to Adelaide, the hosts will be favoured, and then there’s a potential semi-final against a weakened Sydney side. And remember, the Crows already beat the Swans at the SCG once this year! But the other reason they can make a prelim is the incredible form of Izak Rankine – he’s absolutely primed to make amends for last year (in a footy sense), having been arguably the best player in the game over the last six weeks. Few clubs have a game-breaker like him and, if he keeps this up, he can drag a flawed group deeper than anyone thought possible before Round 24’s good fortune.

Next game: Elimination final vs Melbourne, Western Bulldogs or Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Saturday week 7:35pm

8. SYDNEY SWANS (18-5, 136.1%)

Ladder position: 2nd

We honestly have no idea where to put the Swans; they looked like their usual selves against North Melbourne… but there’s a reasonable jump in quality from ‘North Melbourne With Nothing To Play For’ to ‘Brisbane Going For A Home Prelim’. At a minimum the Swans are the least-scary top-two finisher in a while – though in a pure football sense, the most similar case would be Adelaide without Izak Rankine last year. And we saw how that went for them. As much of an emotional toll the last week has been, there’s also some chance the playing group is galvanised to try and prove everyone wrong (including Andrew Pridham) about their season being “torpedoed” without three of their best five players and their best tagger. And the bracket should favour the Swans; assuming they lose to Brisbane in the qualifying final (which isn’t a sure thing) their semi-final is against Adelaide, Melbourne, Collingwood or the Bulldogs. Even in their current form that’s winnable; before the weekend they looked on track to draw Geelong in the semis instead (who we think are quite a bit better than that quartet). We can absolutely see a world where Sydney produces an emotionally-charged win in the semis… and then gets smashed by Fremantle in the prelim.

Next game: Qualifying final vs Brisbane at the SCG, Saturday week 3:15pm

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (13-9-1, 95.4%)

Ladder position: 8th

Two weeks ago we would’ve had the Bulldogs a clear 10th in the finals pecking order; something has changed since that dire North Melbourne loss, though. Not only is Ed Richards reminding the footy world he’s one of the game’s great midfielders – they’ve still got two of them! – but the side looks more defensively sound overall. And while Aaron Naughton’s fitness, and the reliance upon him structurally when he’s there, remain concerns the Dogs of the past fortnight can absolutely beat Collingwood on Friday night. It’s a good draw for them though it must be said the Marvel tax is clearly in effect here. There was no world where they get a true home game because the AFL has always prioritised crowd numbers over true fixture fairness; but it’s also completely reasonable to point out it’s unfair that the lower-ranked team has home ground advantage. This is not just a finals thing; the Marvel teams are, broadly speaking, less powerful on and off the field for various reasons. They are structurally disadvantaged in a way almost every other club isn’t. That’s capitalism for you.

Next game: Wildcard final vs Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

10. COLLINGWOOD (12-9-2, 102.4%)

Ladder position: 9th

We understand the merits of listening to your players about their bodies; the human element is what makes coaching so challenging, as you can’t treat players like you’re playing Football Manager. And Craig McRae deserves the benefit of the doubt in almost all cases. But that doesn’t mean we can’t question the Magpies resting so few players for their Round 24 dead rubber; even without being outcome-based and simply pointing to Scott Pendlebury’s injury and going ‘SEE, WRONG’, it seems illogical to play your best guys ahead of a potential five-week finals campaign. Were the Magpies likely to win the flag anyway? No. But they can absolutely make a prelim, as they’re one of the more match-up based teams in this finals series. Say they and Carlton win their wildcard games – most people would be picking the Pies to win their elimination final against Adelaide in Adelaide. The ensuing semi-final would be against a weakened Sydney in Sydney; that’s winnable! Professional sport is all about is about finding those little 1 or 2 per cent edges; resting players is one of those luxuries that gives you those edges. Collingwood can clearly still win a final or two despite their decision – drawing the Dogs instead of Carlton was a great result for them – but this is about the process not the outcome.

Next game: Wildcard final vs Collingwood at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm