AFL 2026, Power Rankings after Round 21

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

The virtually-certain minor premiers look unstoppable. And running through their challengers, there’s only one team without a clear flaw.

Watch every match of every round of the AFL Premiership Season LIVE and ad-break free during play on FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.

See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 21 below!

How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

All times AEST.

1. FREMANTLE (18-2, 147.3%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, def Western Bulldogs by 37 points

The Dockers actually have some interesting decisions to make over the next three weeks, even though the games kinda don’t matter. They can’t be resting players for this week’s trip to the MCG – they need to take advantage of a rare visit to the Grand Final’s home venue, and they still need one more win to officially clinch the minor premiership anyway. But in Rounds 23 and 24, when they’re presumably irrelevant games in a competitive sense, how do the Dockers keep their motivation levels high? And how many players do they manage? You can tell, based on how they’ve treated the likes of Hayden Young thus far, that Justin Longmuir won’t be conservative. And if you’re worried about rust in the qualifying final, you don’t want guys having two or three weeks off. It’s all a good test of Longmuir’s coaching acumen.

This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

2. HAWTHORN (14-5-1, 123.7%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def North Melbourne by 16 points

It still feels like nobody is talking about Hawthorn as the Dockers’ biggest challenger, but when you run through everyone’s flaws, it sure seems like Sam Mitchell’s men look the best? Even if they lose to Brisbane this Friday night they should make the top four, and probably with a favourable finals bracket, with a qualifying final vs Sydney appearing pretty likely. That gives them a great chance of a home prelim. Home ground advantage is also on their side more generally as an MCG tenant. And they’re the only team that can both compete with Fremantle offensively while still being elite defensively; the Hawks are third behind the Crows in points allowed, but their underlying metrics like inside 50s allowed and points from turnover are better. And doesn’t it just sound right, narratively, that Fremantle’s second Grand Final would feature the same opponent as their first?

This week: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

3. BRISBANE LIONS (13-7, 114.8%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, lost to Carlton by 76 points

What’s their flaw in the premiership race? Quite clearly, their defence. Part of Saturday night’s problems were down to personnel but that can’t be the only reason they allowed seven million points to Carlton. Last year they were borderline in the famous Fox Footy premiership window, sitting sixth for points allowed, and allowed a massive score in their first final to prove defence was still an issue… before winning three straight finals and the flag to make the point moot. Nobody has ranked outside the top six and won the flag since 1999, when the Kangaroos ranked 10th. Right now the Lions are a woeful 13th. We’re not going to give up on them because of just one game; but their actual problem isn’t about just one game. In their current state, at some point in September they will get exposed defensively by a really good attack, and it will end their season. Something must change.

This week: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

4. GEELONG (12-8, 117.2%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, def Collingwood by 25 points

What’s their flaw in the premiership race? The main one would be the absence of their two best players – but their ladder position is also going to make things difficult. The Cats might even be the second-best team in the comp, particularly when you consider their numbers against the best sides. But even an elite team is unlikely to beat four contenders in a row, which they’ll need to do if they can’t crack the top four. (And even if they squeak into fourth, they’re gonna have to play Freo away in their qualifying final, at least without Max Holmes… though at least they’d be on a path to play Hawthorn or Sydney in a prelim which sounds OK?) Throw in a defence that has been extremely leaky at times – they’re OK overall but have allowed the fifth-most shots on goal, which means any team that kicks particularly straight can take advantage – and there’s just enough holes in their resume. Having said all that, they’ve definitely got a better chance of winning the flag than most people were giving them three weeks ago. A Cats-Freo Grand Final match-up definitely wouldn’t shock us.

This week: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

5. SYDNEY SWANS (15-5, 129.5%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, def St Kilda by 19 points

What’s their flaw in the premiership race? Well, this one’s pretty easy, especially after the horrific injury for Will Edwards who has been quietly fantastic in their back six. While the Swans rank fifth for points conceded they’re a bit flattered by a few abnormally low scores kicked against them – they’ve allowed 13 goals or more in seven of their past eight matches. And of course, there’s the matter of their 2-5 record against the top seven. Always a problem come finals time when you can’t consistently beat good teams, because the finals is where all the good teams are.

This week: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm

6. ADELAIDE CROWS (13-7, 117.6%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def Essendon by 72 points

What’s their flaw in the premiership race? It’s still all about their ball movement, which limits their attacking prowess against the best defences. If they’re going to beat elite teams in September they’re basically gonna have to scrap their way there, having scored an average of 74 points in their games against the rest of the top seven – and never more than 87. They rank just 15th for going from defensive 50 to forward 50 and while finals games are usually often a bit scrappier, meaning perfect end-to-end ball movement is at a premium, that’s a real problem that’s been hanging over their heads for a couple of years now. The Crows can make the top four, which would certainly help, but even that best-case scenario probably has them in a semi-final against someone like Brisbane or Geelong. Would you trust them to win that AND an away prelim?

This week: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

7. MELBOURNE (13-7, 107.8%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, def Gold Coast by 9 points

What’s their flaw in the premiership race? Well, as it stands they’re the favourite for 7th, and they very much feel like the clear seventh of seven. They’re very good offensively, but not elite. They’ve become pretty good defensively, but definitely aren’t elite. And it’s still just a bit hard to wrap our heads around the idea of the Demons as a genuine flag contender given our priors. They can absolutely win a couple of finals, maybe even sneak into prelim final weekend if everything goes right, but it’d be crazy if they went any further than that. But the Grand Final IS at the MCG, so they’ve got that going for them…

This week: Fremantle at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

8. COLLINGWOOD (11-8-1, 105.6%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, lost to Geelong by 25 points

Craig McRae has done an incredible job just getting the Magpies to this point, turning a team that won just five of its first 13 matches into a brief top-six threat, especially given the injury plague they’ve been playing through. With Brisbane and Hawthorn still to come – heck, even West Coast away is a danger game, given how close the Eagles got to spoiling Pendles’ big day – they’re surely not escaping the wildcard from here and that’s what they are. A pretty good list, currently only good because of its availability limitations, being squeezed for every drop of talent it’s got. They can absolutely win what looks like a seemingly inevitable wildcard final against the Bulldogs, and then they’d probably get Brisbane, Adelaide or Geelong away (away*, in the Cats’ case) in an elimination final. Good luck.

This week: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-8, 94.8%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to Fremantle by 37 points

There’s definitely no point panicking just yet, but if the Bulldogs can’t nab their 13th win of the year this Thursday night against North Melbourne, it could be squeaky bum time. While the machinations required for the Bulldogs to miss the finals with 12 wins are tricky, they’re within the realms of possibility. The Dogs would have to lose to the Roos, Blues and Demons, and then two of these happen: St Kilda beats Carlton, Richmond and Gold Coast; Carlton beats St Kilda OR a Fremantle side resting their best players; GWS beats Gold Coast, West Coast and Adelaide (away). We’d suggest the Bulldogs are better off if Carlton beats St Kilda because the Saints should definitely win their last two, so that’s your rooting interest on Sunday night sorted. Or, you know, just beat North, like you always do!

This week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

10. CARLTON (10-10, 97%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, def Brisbane by 76 points

There are a couple of games every season where you’re watching and just laughing to yourself at the absurdity of it. (Often they involve Carlton losing, so this would’ve been a nice change for their fans.) It’s still worth repeating how incredible their current situation is – they are one game clear inside the top 10, just 12 weeks after being equal-last with Essendon and Richmond. Gold Coast was fourth at that time, and is now 14th (which is more about them than the Blues, but anyway). We’re still unsure who we’re going to tip in Sunday night’s mini elimination final against St Kilda but it’s hard to argue with nine wins from their past 11 games…

This week: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm

11. ST KILDA (9-11, 104.3%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, lost to Sydney by 19 points

If the Saints play finals, they’ll do it without having beaten a top-10 team, which will definitely get a run in the build-up to their wildcard game. That’s a bit unfair because if they finish 10th they’ll almost certainly have done it by beating Carlton and GWS – the direct competitors for that spot – twice each. They will deserve to be best-of-the-rest. And then they’ll get a shot at Melbourne, Geelong, Adelaide or Brisbane in that wildcard game… and probably lose, but still, they’ll have earned the chance!

This week: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm

12. GWS GIANTS (9-11, 99%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, def Port Adelaide by 12 points

They’re not quite in no man’s land, but they’re in that awkward spot where you’re in the finals race, but you’re kinda not, even though it’s definitely feasible that you’ll get there. Under the top eight system they could’ve just given up and started planning for 2027 but now they’re either being given hope or false hope, depending on your perspective. Looking at their injury list there are so many listings of ‘season’ that it’s hard to be optimistic even if they sneak into 10th; plus a definitive result of not making finals can make tough list decisions easier to accept internally.

This week: Gold Coast at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm

13. PORT ADELAIDE (6-14, 95.1%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, lost to GWS by 12 points

They did well to avoid winning against the Giants as they’re now almost locked into the bottom five. It means they’re still eligible for the (admittedly unlikely) scenario where they get a free end-of-first-round pick for their pick being moved back by someone making a bid. It’s unlikely because Dougie Cochrane still looks like the certain No.1 selection, despite a quiet six-disposal SANFL debut on the weekend. Plus, Richmond now being 17th is going to make it much harder for them to get Pick 1, given the potential scenario where Zak Butters does the team thing and asks to take his talents to Punt Road.

This week: Sydney at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm

14. GOLD COAST SUNS (7-13, 94.7%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to Melbourne by 9 points

The Suns aren’t ‘lose 10 games in a row’ bad, even though they’ve lost 10 games in a row – becoming the first team in 99 years to do that AND finish a round on top of the ladder in the same season. They keep just falling short against mid-table sides; so their true performance level is around 11th or 12th-best, but they’ve had a very tough draw. Damien Hardwick was, broadly speaking, correct when he said this is probably just a down year for the Suns and the strength of the list overall means they’ll bounce back. The Fremantle comparison is reasonable. But the Fremantle comparison also means we need to question Hardwick, just as Longmuir was being questioned coming into 2026 – if the Dockers hadn’t taken this giant leap forwards, and remained a 7th to 10th type of team, his job would’ve been on the line. Hardwick isn’t going any time soon, because his pedigree gives him more job security than most. But if the Suns don’t play finals in 2027, he’ll have footy’s hottest seat entering 2028 – if he’s still sitting in it at all.

This week: GWS at Manuka Oval, Sunday 1:10pm

15. NORTH MELBOURNE (8-12, 89.3%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Hawthorn by 16 points

We’ll say it until people stop saying the opposite – North Melbourne has progressed this year. Their percentage of 89.3 would be their best since 2019’s 99.5; they’ve barely even been above the low 70s this decade! Yes, they’ve taken advantage of an easy draw. Between 2020 and 2025 it was not possible for North Melbourne to have an easy draw because they were the easy draw! If they are still mediocre next year then sure, we can talk about Alastair Clarkson’s job, but it’s crazy to do it right now.

This week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-16, 70.8%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to Richmond by 11 points

Our view that goalkicking is, broadly speaking, random is being severely tested by Jake Waterman’s yips. Obviously some players are better kicks than others but over a longer period, and certainly on the team level, it balances out. Waterman, sadly, has now had a long period costing West Coast games – David King estimated they’ve lost three times this year due to his misses. That might sound harsh, and he’s doing a lot right to generate the chances in the first place; plus it’s better this is happening now, instead of a year where the Eagles were trying to push for the finals. But Waterman’s emotional reaction when kicking an easy one at one stage against Richmond showed he knows how badly things are going. We hope he can find a fix.

This week: Collingwood at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm

17. RICHMOND (3-17, 62.8%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, def West Coast by 11 points

This week: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

18. ESSENDON (2-18, 64.4%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Adelaide by 72 points

This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

In the end, the Tigers’ head-to-head win over the Bombers looks set to decide the wooden spoon, which is probably the fairest result (even if Essendon’s two wins are better than Richmond’s other two wins). As we’ve mentioned before this isn’t a year where you’re desperate to have Pick 1 over Pick 2, and Adem Yze definitely needed the win, so the Tigers were totally reasonable to consider the short-term over the long-term with Sunday’s win. Not that they had a huge say in it, because they gave West Coast enough chances…