AFL 2026, The Blowtorch Round 15

Collingwood’s flag “desperation” has been laid bare… but its Lachie Neale pursuit has been approved. Plus a Dee-fining fortnight and an Eagle’s issue exposed.

Plus more of the biggest talking points ahead of Round 15, as well as the Fox Footy commentary roster for every game, in foxfooty.com.au’s ultimate weekly preview: The Blowtorch!

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PIES ‘NOT IN CONTENTION’ AHEAD OF ‘BIG’ LIST CALLS

An AFL Hall of Famer thinks Collingwood is no longer a premiership contender, regardless of whether it adds Lachie Neale, ahead of “big decisions” on several veterans.

The 5-7-1 Magpies have dropped three straight games to tumble down to 13th ahead of a must-win clash with Port Adelaide at the MCG.

There’s concerns with their forward line and midfield firepower next to Nick Daicos.

And once the kings of the clutch now have just one win from their five games decided by six points or less in 2026. Which excludes an eight-point loss to Melbourne on King’s Birthday.

Craig McRae’s side should be well rested after its bye. But it’s without key cornerstones at either end of the ground in Jamie Elliott (ACL) and Darcy Moore (hamstring).

And Brayden Maynard’s surprise bid to play a fortnight on from twice dislocating his shoulder will fall short, despite avoiding season-ending surgery.

Collingwood will need to tie consecutive wins together just to make the Wildcard from here in a friendly part of its fixture with clashes against Port (MCG), Richmond (MCG), Gold Coast (People First Stadium), North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium) and Carlton (MCG) ahead.

And while Demons great Garry Lyon “admires” the Magpies and “thinks they’re really honest,” he said they’re a “fair way off it.”

“The narrative is, ‘if only we’d won a couple of those (close) games’. That’s a bit desperate, but that’s OK, you’re convincing yourself. Then you see Maynard pushing hard (to play), there’s a bit of desperation in that as well,” Lyon said on Fox Footy’s AFL 360.

“But I haven’t got them in contention, I’ve been solid on that for a while.”

It comes with club champions Scott Pendlebury (38 years old), Jeremy Howe and Steele Sidebottom (both 35) due to come out of contract in delicate list calls that are “most interesting” to Lyon in the back-half of the season.

“These are the soul and hard core if this football club. Can they go around again?,” he posed.

“If they do, then we get to this stage next year and they’re another 12 months older. And you know what happens in the back part of your career.

“I haven’t got them contending, and I’m happy to be proven wrong.

“But I look at it and see (forwards) Dan McStay, Tim Membrey, Charlie West, Jack Buller, Mitch Podhajski — that doesn’t scream finals to me.

“I know they’ve got some good players in the middle, but they’ve got decisions to make.”

Collingwood has emerged as a likely landing spot for dual Brownlow Medallist Neale in free agency, with reports of a three-year deal worth as much as $3 million in total.

Lyon “wouldn’t leave” reigning back-to-back premier Brisbane, if he was Neale.

But the Australian Football Hall of Famer understood the financial pull for the 33-year old and a move that could provide Daicos a star running partner. Even if only short term.

“I understand if it’s financial security he wants, then going to Collingwood makes sense,” Lyon added.

“If you want footy success, you stay at Brisbane with the group you’ve been with that have delivered you a couple of premierships and who’s young players are going to get better and better.

“I don’t know the personal circumstances… but I don’t think you’re going there to win premierships.

“He will go and help them, he and Nick in the middle would be a formidable operation.”

Fellow AFL 360 co-host Gerard Whateley, meanwhile, was “interested in the idea” that they have to try and immediately push back into flag contention because of Daicos.

“I wonder if that’s the wrong way around,” Whateley flagged.

“They have to put a list together which is more than a running mate for Nick Daicos.

“The forward line is clearly the area that needs to be addressed. And they have to get some young talent in the building.

“They want ready-made players, which I totally understand. I do not believe in bottoming out, I think there are so many cautionary tales … you wouldn’t go anywhere near that.

“But there is a balance there and they’re the wrong side of the balance.”

Whateley also endorsed the prospect of getting Neale for nothing, at least from a trade sense, as an unrestricted free agent.

But it’s more a short-term fix and still mightn’t instantly make Collingwood a contender again.

Nor would it help the club’s need to replenish its list with more young talent. And the ability to do that could be compromised beyond 2026, with future drafts set to be dominated by Tasmania.

“You can overpay Lachie Neale, because he doesn’t cost you any draft capital. I reckon the clever clubs run the equation, you can pay about 25 per cent more for that player, because it doesn’t cost you anything,” he said.

“But that’s a bit of a patch up job. It might make Nick more comfortable, but that doesn’t resolve any of the issues about getting back into contention.

“There’s a world in which they finish this season in 13th place, where they are now, just honest as the day is long. They’ve got to be more than that.”

Lyon responded: “You can’t be bloody minded about it either.

“This is the really hard part about it, when you’ve got those names coming to the end of the most celebrated careers. I suspect a couple of them are going to have to go.

“You’re making decisions for the good of the football club. Maybe in the short term, if you keep them, they might be more competitive. But you’ve to look beyond that, knowing full well what’s coming from a Tassie point of view.

“I think it’s a real delicate one for the Pies … they’ve got some big decisions.”

DEES ‘DEFINING FORTNIGHT’… AND WHY THERE’S HOPE THEY CAN CLAIM A SCALP

Melbourne faces a “defining fortnight ahead” that could dictate its final fate.

Steven King’s fourth-placed side faces Adelaide (sixth) and Hawthorn (fifth) in the next two weeks in good old fashioned eight-point games that will have a big say on the make-up of the top 10.

The Demons have made the MCG a fortress with an unbeaten 8-0 record at the venue in 2026.

But they’re 1-5 away from the ‘G including 1-2 against top six sides — the least amount of games against top six teams in the competition — and 8-3 against bottom 12 teams.

“I think it’s a defining fortnight for the destiny of the Dees’ season coming up in the next two weeks,” Saints great Leigh Montagna said on Fox Footy’s First Crack: Preview.

“They take on Adelaide then Hawthorn, the two teams breathing down their neck.

“They’ve done a terrific job, they’re one of the stories of the season.
“But the next two weeks are going to shape whether they are a team that are going to finish in the top six and have a home final at the MCG. Whether they miss the top six and are a wildcard team. Or whether, if they can win both of those games, they finish top four and all if a sudden we may be talking about them as being a premiership chance.”

King has installed a scintillating attacking brand with “sizzle” and “flare” that’s made Melbourne one of the most watchable sides in the league.

But the Demons have leaked scores the other way including giving up 100 points in five of their first eight games.

However, a reason to be bullish that Melbourne can rise to the occasion against fellow finalists is its defensive improvements in a number of key metrics over the last couple of months.

From Opening Round to Round 6, they were ranked among the bottom five clubs in points against, score inside 50 against, chain to score against, defensive 50 to inside 50 against, halfback to inside 50 against and post clearance ground ball.

Since then, the Dees have ranked seventh, fifth, fifth, ninth, second and fifth respectively in each category.

“Steven King gave them a license (to attack), but there was always question marks about their substance defensively. But over the last eight weeks you can see those numbers are improving dramatically,” Montagna continued.

“Their ability to defend behind the ball, to give themselves some shape, so they can stick attack off turnover, but be set.

“It’s really healthy.

“This is something Steven King has added to their game as the season has gone on. And why I think they should be confident in the next two weeks, taking on really good opposition.

“It’s a defining fortnight that will determine how far the Demons go in 2026.

“I’m excited to see because I think they’re ready and are up for the challenge.”

‘ON THE CUSP, OR MEDIOCRE’: GREAT PERPLEXED BY SUNS AS CURIOUS DROP OFF LAID BARE

In line with the name of this story, Gold Coast has come firmly under the blowtorch this week.

And even premiership coach Adam Simpson can’t get a good handle on Damien Hardwick’s side, questioning if it’s “on the cusp or just mediocre.”

The Suns were widely considered one of the flag frontrunners this season after adding Christian Petracca to an already star-studded list.

And while Gold Coast’s 7-6 record if far from a disaster, it’s simply not quite living up to the heights expected including a three-game losing streak and more trade rumblings around stars in a feeling of a deja vu.

Granted, the Suns, coming off their first ever finals win last year, are trying to make arguably the hardest leap in footy. From a good, finals calibre side, to a bona fide contender that can win it all.
Simpson simply “isn’t sure where they’re at”.

“The current reality of the situation is, they played finals last year, (but) that doesn’t guarantee you anything,” he said on Fox Footy’s AFL 360.

“Start of the year, premiership favourites. They get Petracca up there and away they go. They had that first win against Geelong, and since then, they haven’t really fired a shot.

“They’ve beaten a few teams they should beat and the rest has been pretty mundane.

“What is their current reality? Is there pressure up there? When you get to training, is the camera crew at the front? Are there supporters and unrest up there? Or is it just the pressure we put on them from our media point of view?

“That’s all thing ‘Dimma’ and the club are dealing with.

“I’m not quite if they’re on the cusp, or just mediocre.”

One of the most perplexing parts of their season is the diminishing midfield returns, despite the addition of four-time All-Australian Petracca to a star-studded crop.

Rated among the best clearance sides last year, the Suns have ranked No. 18 in clearance differential and No. 13 in points from clearance differential since Round 7.

So, why is that happening?

For one, reigning Brownlow medallist Matt Rowell has been in and out of the side through injury and still getting up to speed.

Simpson also argued the new ruck rules haven’t helped Jarrod Witts, who was dropped last week, and suggested their star-studded midfield lacked a defensive presence.

“The ruck rule is one of them, I suppose. It was debatable last year whether (Witts) should be an All-Australian ruckman and Dimma was campaigning for it,” Simpson said.

“They’re missing a Josh Dunkley, who can go in and be tough and hard for the rest of the boys.

“Intercept possessions in the midfield, for example, they’d be last in the competition. Are they working hard to get the ball off the opposition? I value that stat.

“Petracca has (averaged 25.3 disposals and 1.6 goals). Which is fine, that’s all good. But you need someone there to do the grunt work.

“Perhaps that’s what they need. Looking from afar, it feels like they’re not quite there in that space.

“When a Geelong has an Tom Atkins in there. (Geelong) had 16 (intercept possessions) last week to (Gold Coast’s) eight.

“So, there’s a few things Dimma can tweak. But I don’t think it’s just fixate on that we’re all, either, I think there’s a few other things there.”

STAR’S ‘PUTRID’ FLAW THAT NEEDS FIXING… BUT EVEN THE BEST OF THE BEST HAVE HAD IT

Regarded as one of the league’s sharper shooters heading into 2026, the goalposts have seemingly moved for West Coast’s Jake Waterman this year.

On face value, it reads an incredibly harsh assessment of a player who is one of very few players left to have kicked a major in every match so far this year; not to mention eight instances where he’s kicked three or more goals.

But unfortunately, the 28-year-old’s woes were front and centre of his side’s heartbreaking one-point loss to North Melbourne last Saturday, where with 45 seconds to play, Waterman missed the final shot of the match from a favourable distance directly in front of goal.

His returns show 9.8 in the last three matches, and a total of 31.37 this year. The key forward stands alone in the league for score involvements (111), and is tied equal-first for shots at goal (75) with reigning Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron.

“The only way this happens, is when your mind gets involved … he has shown that he is a very good kick at goal, so this is a psychological challenge (and) mindset issue,” Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley told Fox Footy’s On The Couch on Monday night.

“The worst thing you can possibly do is have 10 different people with 10 different bits of information.

“When you miss a goal that’s cost your team a win ultimately; he wouldn’t feel any lower than he feels now … he’ll have one person in the club that he will continue to work with through this next month – no one else is allowed to speak to Jake about his goalkicking.”

His inaccuracy in front of goal comes less than two years after earning his maiden All-Australian blazer in 2024, in a season which saw him kick 53.23 from 20 games — despite the Eagles winning just five games that year.

But, as three-time Brisbane premiership player Jonathan Brown suggested, the temporary woes come for even the best of the best, which should give Waterman hope he can quickly turn his form around.

“As a player that’s experienced that (yips), maybe not for as long as Jake’s experienced it, but I had 0.7 in a game against Essendon one day. I couldn’t hit my foot by the end of the game,” Brown said.

Three-time Coleman Medallist Jack Riewoldt added: “His ball drop is putrid at the moment … I might have had a fortnight of it (across my career).”

FOX FOOTY COMMENTATORS FOR ROUND 15 FIXTURE (All times AEST)

FREMANTLE v GEELONG CATS

Thursday June 18, 8:10pm at Optus Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 7pm on Channel 504, hosted by Sarah Jones, Jason Dunstall and Leigh Montagna, with commentary from Matt Hill, Mark Howard, David King, Jack Riewoldt, Kath Loughnan, Tom Hawkins, Will Schofield and Jon Ralph.

GOLD COAST SUNS v HAWTHORN

Friday June 19, 7:40pm at People First Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 6:30pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Anthony Hudson, Gerard Whateley, Garry Lyon, Leigh Matthews, Alastair Lynch, Jordan Lewis and Jon Ralph.

ADELAIDE CROWS v MELBOURNE

Saturday June 20, 1:15pm at Adelaide Oval

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 12:30pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Leigh Montagna, Mark Ricciuto, Ken Hinkley, Shaun Burgoyne and Kelli Underwood.

GWS GIANTS v CARLTON

Saturday June 20, 4:15pm at ENGIE Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 4pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Dwayne Russell, Garry Lyon, Jordan Lewis, Alastair Lynch and Jay Clark.

COLLINGWOOD v PORT ADELAIDE

Saturday June 20, 7:35pm at the MCG

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 7:15pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Mark Howard, Jack Riewoldt, David King, Eddie Betts, Kath Loughnan and Jay Clark.

RICHMOND v NORTH MELBOURNE

Sunday June 21, 1:10pm at the MCG

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 12:30pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Corbin Middlemas, Jess Webster, Cameron Mooney, Ben Dixon, Ruby Schleicher and David Zita.

ST KILDA v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Sunday June 21, 3:15pm at Marvel Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 3pm on Channel 503 and 504 (from 4pm), with commentary from Matt Hill, Dwayne Russell, Brad Johnson, Nick Dal Santo, Sarah Jones and David Zita.

BYES: Brisbane Lions, Essendon, Sydney Swans, West Coast Eagles