Nathan Cleary under pressure for NSW Blues in Game 3, halves partnership with Mitchell Moses, Ethan Strange

A week is a long time in rugby league.

In the case of Nathan Cleary, he has gone from man of the match in Game 1 to having his place in the NSW Blues side questioned ahead of Wednesday night’s decider.

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Cleary makes history at Suncorp Stadium when he runs out for his 20th State of Origin appearance, becoming NSW’s most capped halfback.

Meanwhile, he moves past Johnathan Thurston as the third-most capped halfback in Origin history, only behind Allan Langer (34) and Daly Cherry-Evans (22).

It begs the question, if Cleary isn’t able to get the job done on Wednesday night should Laurie Daley — or whoever is coach in 2027 — consider whether Cleary is still an automatic selection at halfback?

The Panthers superstar, who led the Dally M count when it went behind closed doors, has often been widely considered one of the first players picked.

But foxsports.com.au columnist Paul Crawley argued that should change if Cleary fails to step up at Suncorp Stadium.

“The definition of stupidity is to just keep doing the same thing all the time and getting the same result. Nathan has had enough time in the Blues jumper now,” Crawley said on NRL 360.

“He was brought through as a 20-year-old. He was given time. There were times early in his career where I don’t think he deserved to have that jumper.

“At that point, there was other blokes that probably deserved to go, but the Blues put faith in him. They knew he was the long-term halfback and have given him ample time to get it right.

“… I don’t think he was great for the Kangaroos last year. I don’t think the Kangaroos clicked on that series. Yes, they won the Ashes three-nil, but there was no stage in that series where I thought the Kangaroos clicked.

“I just think at some point you have to move on. If they don’t get it right this series, I would love to see New South Wales take a breath and give the young blokes a go.”

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Cleary made his Origin debut at just 20 years old in 2018 and up until that point, there had been a musical-chairs approach to the NSW halves with 17 players used at five-eighth and halfback between 2006 and the breakthrough 2014 series.

There have been plenty of changes in and around Cleary since his Blues debut, but he has otherwise been the one constant.

The 28-year-old has played in every series outside of 2024, when he was sidelined by a hamstring injury and while he is undoubtedly one of the best players in the NRL, that dominance hasn’t consistently translated to the Origin arena.

There are several theories for why that may be the case. Former Queensland halfback Cooper Cronk suggested earlier in the week on ‘Matty and Cronk’ that Cleary may need to be a bit more selfish as a player.

“Nathan looked like he was trying to do everyone else’s role and do the right thing by the team. But to be a good team player, you need to deliver in your strengths as an individual first. He can definitely turn up and be player of the match for NSW,” Cronk said.

Whatever the reason may be, Crawley put forward Dolphins sensation Isaiya Katoa as a potential threat to Cleary’s crown as the top halfback in NSW.

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“Katoa now is at an older age than Nathan was when Nathan debuted,” Crawley said.

“So if you’re going to keep going into the 30s… Nathan has proven himself to be an absolute champion at club level, but he hasn’t done it at Origin level and I believe this is his moment.”

Obviously if NSW wins Cleary will more than cement his position in the team and could well win the Wally Lewis Medal for player of the series after his standout second half in Game 1.

But history is against Cleary, who is 0-3 in deciders.

While Crawley can see a world where Cleary is under pressure to hold his spot in 2027, Code Sports journalist David Riccio said Mitchell Moses is the only Blues half whose position should be in jeopardy.

“You could make a case for Ethan (Strange) needing to start in this game, but I don’t see that necessary heavy pressure of someone really applying, ‘Pick me, pick me’ in Nathan’s position,” he said.

“You can raise Isaiya Katoa but personally I don’t believe he’s at that level just yet. He’ll probably get there. But as far as being under pressure to lose his position, he’s the best halfback in the game. I don’t see how he loses his jumper if he loses tomorrow.”

Riccio had support from former Blues representative and NRL 360 co-host Braith Anasta, who said he believes Cleary “deserves” to get the first shot next series regardless of Wednesday’s result.

“He has earned the right,” he added, although Anasta was more open to the idea that Katoa does also warrant a look-in and that his relative inexperience shouldn’t be used against him given Sam Walker’s emergence for Queensland.

“It depends on how he plays and how the team performs. If they go out and do what they did in game two, you know what, who knows?” Anasta said.

“And who is to say Isaiya Katoa hasn’t got it? You don’t know that… look at Sam Walker. A lot of people didn’t think he had it. You don’t really know.”

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Former Blues hooker Michael Ennis, however, was strong in defending Cleary from criticism and declared the narrative around the NSW halfback is “absolutely not” warranted.

“If I was coaching New South Wales, you would sleep easy tonight knowing Nathan is your halfback. It’s as simple as that,” he added.

Ennis did concede that the Blues have a lot to work on when it comes to getting the most out of the Cleary-Moses combination after they failed to fire at the MCG.

“We relied on Mitch’s kicking game in that second game. Nathan then retracted and fell out of the game in different stages. We can afford to do that,” Ennis said.

“Nathan has got to completely step forward and own the contest, and Mitch has got to complement him and not compete with him.”