AFL 2026, The Run Home after Round 21

One wild night at Marvel Stadium dramatically changed the top-four race AND the battle for the final wildcard. Not bad from you, Carlton.

This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture with three rounds left and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out, ahead of the AFL’s first 10-team finals series. See our predicted final ladder below.

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How does The Run Home work?

We’re trying to predict who makes the top 10, but it’s more complicated than just running a ladder predictor.

The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those percentages to give each team a projected win total.

For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. But if it’s an almost certain blowout, it might be 90-10, so the favourite gets 0.9 projected wins. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.

It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to simply tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round.

It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom – and it’s hard for teams to catch up to sides who are multiple wins ahead of them (which is a fair reflection of reality). If you’re able to win a bunch of 50-50s, you’ll make these projections look silly, but that’s not something anyone can accurately predict anyway.

At least one team will end up much higher or lower than we’re predicting. But think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 1000 times.

PROJECTED FINALS BRACKET

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium

First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Adelaide Crows vs TBC at Adelaide Oval

First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Melbourne vs Carlton at the MCG

Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Geelong vs TBC at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG

The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Fremantle (20.05 projected wins)

2. Sydney Swans (17.55)

3. Hawthorn (16.3)

4. Brisbane Lions (15)

5. Adelaide Crows (14.75)

6. Geelong (14.6)

7. Melbourne (14.6)

8. Western Bulldogs (13.5)

9. Collingwood (12.95)

10. Carlton (11.2)

11. St Kilda (11.05)

12. GWS Giants (10.9)

13. North Melbourne (8.85)

14. Gold Coast Suns (7.95)

15. Port Adelaide (7.4)

16. West Coast Eagles (4.65)

17. Richmond (3.3)

18. Essendon (2.4)

Key Talking Points

– Carlton, the AFL thanks you for your service in making sure this finals race doesn’t get predictable.

– The top three looks kinda locked in. Fremantle is just chilling for the next month, while Hawthorn (currently 3rd) would need to beat Brisbane in Brisbane next week AND see Sydney drop one of their three easy remaining games to nab 2nd. Even if the Hawks lose to the Lions, they’ll still get the favourable qualifying final match-up with the Swans if they win their last two (Magpies, Eagles);

– Brisbane’s shock loss to the Blues has opened the door for 4th, and could even see them slump to 7th. The premiers are still our favourites for the double chance, because they’re more likely to win out, but if they lose once they’re likely to be passed (the Hawks game next week is huge, but don’t count out the Pies game in Round 24). Geelong is the biggest threat to catch Brisbane because they have three simple games left and will keep building percentage; Adelaide and Melbourne each have two tricky games left, including both playing Fremantle, and even if they go 2-1 will risk sliding into the wildcard… this race is nowhere near over, though the Crows were big winners due to their new-found percentage lead;

– Then there’s no man’s land. The Western Bulldogs and Collingwood look destined to play each other in the 8th vs 9th wildcard final, and the game would be at the MCG whoever is ‘hosting’. They each need one more to win to be absolutely certain they’re playing finals, which should come next week (vs Kangaroos and Eagles respectively), but they’re very unlikely to crack the top six due to their percentage and tough draw respectively;

– Carlton vs St Kilda will come close to deciding 10th; at the very least the winner is the clear favourite. The Blues need to win it, because their percentage means they probably need 12 wins to avoid losing the tiebreaker. But the Saints also need to win it, because otherwise they’ll be two wins out of 10th with two games left. They’ll very likely finish 10th if they win out. GWS is lurking but will find it tough to reach 12 wins (their last game is Adelaide in Adelaide), so to finish 10th they probably need the Blues to beat the Saints, but then get stuck on 11 wins too (at which point the Giants sneak in on percentage).

Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order. All times AEST.

Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This somewhat advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, and does not take into account the location of the game, but is a basic metric of how tough a fixture is.

1. FREMANTLE (18-2, 147.3%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 23: Adelaide at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

To be clear, they have not clinched the minor premiership. But the Dockers would need to lose three straight games by reasonable margins, while the Swans win three straight games by reasonable margins, to not be minor premiers. Even though none of their remaining games are easy, we reckon they’ll be alright.

Realistic best-case finish: 1st

Realistic worst-case finish: 1st

Fox Footy’s projection: 20.05 wins, finishing 1st

2. SYDNEY SWANS (15-5, 129.5%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Port Adelaide at the SCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 23: Essendon at the MCG, Sunday 4:40pm

Round 24: North Melbourne at the SCG, Sunday 3:20pm

Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-easiest

It should be a relatively smooth ride from here. Even if the Swans lose twice, they’d probably still finish third on percentage; the only team that can realistically catch them is Hawthorn, and they play Brisbane in Brisbane next week. The most likely scenario is Sydney just winning its last three games and guaranteeing a home qualifying final but, even if things go a bit pear-shaped, they’d have to be very unlucky to fall below third.

Realistic best-case finish: 2nd

Realistic worst-case finish: 3rd

Fox Footy’s projection: 17.55 wins, finishing 2nd

3. HAWTHORN (14-5-1, 123.7%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Brisbane at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG, Saturday 7:40pm

Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-easiest

Hawks fans, thank a Carlton supporter in your life, because the Blues’ upset over Brisbane has given your boys a clear path to a winnable qualifying final. If Hawthorn beats Brisbane next week, they’re set to finish second or third, depending on whether Sydney drops one. And even if the Hawks lose to Brisbane… they should probably still finish third, because they’ve now got a six-point gap on the reigning premiers. They’d need to drop two games to drop out of the top four, and even then, they’d probably remain above at least one of Adelaide or Melbourne. As long as Sam Mitchell’s men win two of their next three games, they’ll have the double chance and a real shot at the Grand Final – either through a winnable qualifying final (almost certainly vs Sydney) and home prelim, or a tough qualifying final (vs Freo) and a slightly-easier-but-interstate prelim.

Realistic best-case finish: 2nd

Realistic worst-case finish: 5th

Fox Footy’s projection: 16.3 wins, finishing 3rd

4. ADELAIDE CROWS (13-7, 117.6%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm

Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm

Round 24: GWS at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-easiest

If the Crows wanted one result out of the weekend, other than their own win, it was Brisbane losing to Carlton. And not only did the Lions lose, they got pumped, and after Adelaide thrashed Essendon the percentage situation has flipped. If the Crows go 3-0 they should finish 4th… though playing the flag favourites interstate will make going 3-0 difficult. The good news is Freo will have likely clinched the minor premiership, so they may start managing players; but throw in that tricky Round 24 clash with the Giants and we suspect Adelaide will lose at least one of their last three games. Going 2-1 could be enough, especially if Hawthorn beats Brisbane, but then Geelong could still catch them… and they’ll still need to hope they stay above Melbourne to avoid falling into 7th and the wildcard round. There’s a lot going on here! As long as they beat Richmond next week, they should host at least one final.

Realistic best-case finish: 3rd

Realistic worst-case finish: 7th

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.75 wins, finishing 5th

5. BRISBANE LIONS (13-7, 114.8%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Hawthorn at the Gabba, Friday 7:40pm

Round 23: Gold Coast at the Gabba, Saturday 4:15pm

Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest

If they don’t win the flag, defence will be why – it cost them a bunch of games during the first half of the season, and now a woeful night against Carlton could cost them a top-four spot. The premiers are still narrow favourites for fourth (despite Adelaide’s percentage lead, because we think Brisbane is more likely to go 3-0) but need to beat Hawthorn, and probably Gold Coast and Collingwood too, to be sure of it. They’d then need the Hawks to lose again to nab third. The most likely team to catch them from below is probably Geelong, who have three easy games left; Adelaide and Melbourne both have to play Freo though they’re both good enough to go 2-1. So if the Lions lose twice, they’re a good chance of dropping into the wildcard round. If they only lose once they should be top six, but probably not top four.

Realistic best-case finish: 3rd

Realistic worst-case finish: 7th

Fox Footy’s projection: 15 wins, finishing 4th

6. MELBOURNE (13-7, 107.8%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Fremantle at the MCG, Saturday 1:15pm

Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm

Round 24: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest

Their top-four chances were boosted by Brisbane’s upset loss to Carlton, though the Demons will still need some help to pinch the double chance, given their percentage deficit to the teams around them. Going 3-0 will be hard enough but they’d also need Brisbane and Adelaide to lose once each – which isn’t crazy, but it’s quite a few things all going right. The bigger problem is Geelong, lurking right behind them with three easy games left on their fixture. If the Demons drop one of their last three games we expect they’ll finish 7th, unless Adelaide loses twice (presumably to Freo and GWS). All three games are loseable but as long as they win once, they should get a home final.

Realistic best-case finish: 4th

Realistic worst-case finish: 8th

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.6 wins, finishing 7th

7. GEELONG (12-8, 117.2%)

Remaining games

Round 22: Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 3:45pm

Round 24: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:45pm

Remaining fixture difficulty: Easiest

Geelong’s season was going to be determined by whether they could survive their tough draw and be in a position to make the top four once it got easy. They’ve done just enough – juuuuuuuuust enough. If the Cats win their last three games, they will make the top six as long as Adelaide or Melbourne loses once, and both sides have to play Fremantle (admittedly, a Fremantle side playing for basically nothing, which may change things). And Brisbane’s shock loss to Carlton means they’re a real chance of sneaking into fourth; the Lions would probably have to lose to either Hawthorn or Collingwood (so it’s plausible!). That extra loss on their record still hurts them if they slip up, though – if the Cats go 2-1 they’re probably looking at 7th place and an extra wildcard final, though there’s some chance the Crows or Demons could lose twice and save them.

Realistic best-case finish: 4th

Realistic worst-case finish: 8th

Fox Footy’s projection: 14.6 wins, finishing 6th

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-8, 94.8%)

Remaining games

Round 22: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm

Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-easiest

They still need one more win to be absolutely certain they’ll play finals; their percentage stinks, Carlton can plausibly catch them (especially if they win their Round 23 meeting), and maybe one of GWS or St Kilda can too. Should the Dogs get that additional win they look pretty locked into the 8th-9th wildcard final; it’s hard to see them catching any of the top seven teams because of their percentage, and equally hard to see anyone below them reaching 13 wins. Best-case would be playing Melbourne for 7th in the final round.

Realistic best-case finish: 7th

Realistic worst-case finish: 11th

Fox Footy’s projection: 13.5 wins, finishing 8th

9. COLLINGWOOD (11-8-1, 105.6%)

Remaining games

Round 22: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 4:10pm

Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 7:40pm

Round 24: Brisbane at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-easiest

The Adelaide win looks even more valuable now, giving the Magpies a bit of breathing room which they may need. Carlton’s win over Brisbane does open up the possibility the Pies could be knocked out of the top 10, though it’s slim, because they’d need to go winless while two of the Blues, Saints and Giants reach 12 wins. With one more win, the Pies will be fine, and that should come against West Coast before they get two free throws at the stumps. They probably need to hit them twice, and reach 14 and a half wins, to escape the wildcard. If the Pies go 2-1 or 1-2 they should be in the 8 vs 9 wildcard game, almost certainly at the MCG, and very likely playing the Bulldogs.

Realistic best-case finish: 7th

Realistic worst-case finish: 11th

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.95 wins, finishing 9th

10. CARLTON (10-10, 97%)

Remaining games

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm