The finish line is within sight.
With two rounds left in the 2026 season, the ladder predictor has gone into overdrive, with just 18 games to decide those who remain in the race for premiership glory.
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Round 22
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Whether it’s trying to lock up a top four spot, or just trying to get into the top 10 at all, The Run Home reveals what the 13 contenders need over the next fortnight.
PREDICTED FINALS BRACKET
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium
First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Melbourne vs TBC at the MCG
First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval
Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Collingwood vs Carlton at the MCG
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Geelong vs TBC at the MCG
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn at the SCG
The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.
PREDICTED FINAL LADDER
1. Fremantle (20-3)
2. Sydney Swans (18-5)
3. Hawthorn (16-6-1)
4. Brisbane Lions (16-7)
5. Melbourne (16-7)
6. Geelong (15-8)
7. Adelaide Crows (15-8)
8. Collingwood (12-10-1)
9. Carlton (12-11)
10. Western Bulldogs (12-11)
11. St Kilda (11-12)
12. GWS Giants (10-13)
13. North Melbourne (9-14)
14. Gold Coast Suns (8-15)
15. Port Adelaide (7-16)
16. West Coast Eagles (4-19)
17. Richmond (3-20)
18. Essendon (2-21)
Touching pre-game scenes for Spud’s game | 02:08
Key Talking Points
– Nine days after everyone else claimed Fremantle had won the minor premiership by beating the Bulldogs, Fremantle has still not actually won the minor premiership. They’re very likely to win it, but they wouldn’t want to lose this Friday night, because then Round 24 would be verrrry interesting;
– Sydney is virtually locked into the top two now; we’d actually say they’re more likely to catch the Dockers for first, than be caught for third, because they only need to beat Essendon to clinch at least second;
– Hawthorn and Brisbane are back as our favourites for third and fourth, respectively, thanks to the Lions’ win on Friday night. Both teams just need to win their last two, against [Blank] Coast and Collingwood, to earn the double chance with Adelaide very close behind… but the Crows play the Dockers away next week, and because of the Dockers’ loss to Melbourne, the Dockers don’t get to rest everyone yet. We’d actually have the Demons as the most likely team to break into the top four, should the Hawks or Lions stumble;
– Geelong is still waiting to leap back into the top six. They missed one chance when the Demons beat the Dockers, so now they need Freo to beat Adelaide, and from there it should be simple. But without a loss above them, they can beat North and Essendon as much as they want. It won’t get them out of the wildcard;
– The Western Bulldogs started the round terribly, but ended it clinching a finals spot, along with Collingwood. The pair look bound for the wildcard round, unless something very weird happens with the Cats, and are a big chance of playing each other unless…
– Carlton pinches 9th? The Blues’ win over a Nas-less St Kilda, combined with GWS’ bad loss to Gold Coast, leaves Josh Fraser’s men two games clear in the top 10 with two rounds remaining. If they beat the Bulldogs next week they should set up a mouth-watering wildcard final against the Magpies, but if they lose, it’d come down to Round 24 and their clash with a Freo side likely to be resting players. The Saints, even without Nas, should win their last two games to keep them honest.
– The Giants and North Melbourne are both in the mathematical-only zone. The Giants would need to beat West Coast then Adelaide away, while hoping the Blues and Saints stuff up; the Roos would need to thump Geelong and Sydney to have even a slim chance.
Below, the 13 remaining contenders are listed and analysed in the current ladder order. The best and worst-case scenarios exclude ones which are unrealistic. All times AEST.
1. FREMANTLE (18-3, 143.4%)
Remaining games
Round 23: Adelaide at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 24: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm
To lock up minor premiership: Win once
We’d give it about a 5 to 10% chance that Fremantle doesn’t win the minor premiership – they’d have to lose twice more, while Sydney wins twice more, and the percentage gap should take care of itself. If you don’t believe us, just consider that the Dockers lost four percentage points this weekend while losing by four actual points. (There’s an argument you’d rather finish second and face Hawthorn, anyway.) It’s most likely they’ll just beat Adelaide and clinch top spot. Melbourne winning, and forcing Fremantle to care about the game rather than resting players, was bad news for the Crows who are now favourites for 7th.
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 2nd (lose twice and Sydney wins twice)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 1st at 20-3, host Brisbane in a qualifying final
Longmuir laments Pearce’s absence | 08:37
2. SYDNEY SWANS (16-5, 134%)
Remaining games
Round 23: Essendon at the MCG, Sunday 4:40pm
Round 24: North Melbourne at the SCG, Sunday 3:20pm
To lock up top two: Win once
The Swans cannot realistically drop out of the top three, thanks to their percentage, and the Hawks’ loss to Brisbane means they’re just one win away from clinching a home qualifying final. With Essendon to come, that appears to be a fait accompli. Those Hawks are still their most likely week one finals opponent but Brisbane, Melbourne and Adelaide (in that order) are also in the hunt.
Best-case scenario: 1st (win twice and Fremantle loses twice)
Worst-case scenario: 3rd (but they’d have to lose to both Essendon and North so, come on…)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 2nd at 18-5, host Hawthorn in a qualifying final
Cox unpacks Swans’ dominant 3 QTR’s | 10:12
3. HAWTHORN (14-6-1, 118.2%)
Remaining games
Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG, Saturday 7:40pm
Round 24: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm
To lock up top two: Win twice (and Sydney loses twice)
To lock up top four: Win twice
They’d previously earned the breathing room which meant losing to Brisbane wasn’t a disaster. If the Hawks just win their last two games as they should, they’ll still get the favourable qualifying final in Sydney, though their chances of hosting that game are effectively gone given the Swans can seal second by beating Essendon. Dropping one more game is likely to send the Hawks tumbling out of the top four entirely, with Brisbane and Melbourne favoured in their remaining two games and able to pass them, while Adelaide is also a chance. Losing twice would be disastrous as it probably sends the Hawks down into 7th and facing an immediate wildcard final (off a Sunday night Perth game, too!). In our scenario, the Hawks will go into the final game of the season able to finish 3rd (with a win) or 5th (with a loss).
Best-case scenario: 2nd (win twice and Sydney loses twice)
Worst-case scenario: 7th (lose twice and Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne win once, and Geelong wins twice)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 3rd at 16-6-1, away to Sydney in a qualifying final
Mitchell bullish despite big loss | 06:47
4. BRISBANE LIONS (14-7, 117.8%)
Remaining games
Round 23: Gold Coast at the Gabba, Saturday 4:15pm
Round 24: Collingwood at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm
To lock up top four: Win twice (and Adelaide doesn’t pass them on percentage)
To lock up top six: Win twice
Not only did the Lions demolish a fellow contender in Hawthorn, but they regained their percentage lead over Adelaide, putting them back in the box seat for fourth. They’re even a chance of pinching third if the Hawks drop a game. Assuming the Crows lose to Fremantle next week, the Lions should just need to get the job done in their final two games, and they’ll clinch the double chance. But if they lose once they could easily drop all the way to 7th (it would probably depend on percentage vs Adelaide).
Best-case scenario: 3rd (Hawthorn loses once)
Worst-case scenario: 7th (lose once and Adelaide, Melbourne and Geelong win twice)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 4th at 16-7, away to Fremantle in qualifying final
‘Remember our players are human’ | 07:24
5. ADELAIDE CROWS (14-7, 117.6%)
Remaining games
Round 23: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:10pm
Round 24: GWS at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm
To lock up top four: Win twice (and pass Brisbane on percentage, or Brisbane or Hawthorn loses once)
To lock up top six: Win twice
The wet conditions not only ruined their chances of building percentage against the lowly Tigers, but almost cost them the game entirely, which would’ve been disastrous. Instead the Crows at least got the four points, and can still claim the double chance by winning out and beating Brisbane on percentage. There’s even a world where the Hawks and Lions slip up, and the Crows fly home to pinch third. The problem is this coming Friday night… a game Fremantle actually needs to care about, because of the loss to Melbourne (the minor premiership isn’t actually THAT important, but it’s still the most favourable spot in the bracket). So the Dockers will be trying, and that could cost the Crows dearly. That expected loss, combined with the Demons’ upset win on Saturday, makes Matthew Nicks’ men our favourite for seventh. They’d be battling Geelong to avoid that first wildcard spot, and the Cats will almost certainly beat them on percentage.
Best-case scenario: 3rd (Hawthorn and Brisbane lose once)
Worst-case scenario: 7th (lose once, and Melbourne and Geelong win twice)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, finish 7th at 15-8, host Western Bulldogs in wildcard final
Nicks: “We still got the job done” | 08:20
6. MELBOURNE (14-7, 107.6%)
Remaining games
Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm
Round 24: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm
To lock up top four: Win twice (and two of Hawthorn, Brisbane and Melbourne lose once)
To lock up top six: Win twice
An incredible win over Fremantle has Steven King’s side in prime position to make the top six. Melbourne even has a chance of pinching a top-four spot, if you combine an expected Adelaide loss to Fremantle with a loss from Brisbane or Hawthorn. That’s completely within the realms of possibility! (We suggest Demons fans think about this from an optimistic point of view, instead of going ‘jeez if we’d just beaten Essendon we’d be third right now’.) However because of their percentage, the Demons still can’t afford a loss, as they’d very likely be stuck in 7th, as the Cats should win their last two.
Best-case scenario: 3rd (Hawthorn, Brisbane and Adelaide all lose once)
Worst-case scenario: 7th (lose once and Geelong wins twice)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 5th at 16-7, host TBC in elimination final
Steven King backs Dees for finals run | 10:56
7. GEELONG (13-8, 120.6%)
Remaining games
Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 3:45pm
Round 24: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:45pm
To lock up top four: Win twice (and Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne all lose once)
To lock up top six: Win twice (and one of Brisbane, Adelaide or Melbourne loses once)
Their path to the top six narrowed with Melbourne’s upset over Fremantle; now the Cats need the Dockers to get the job done against Adelaide instead. That should still happen and combined with two more Geelong wins, that’s a top-six finish; but the risk remains that all of their surprising losses earlier in the year send them into the wildcard. The top four is probably gone now thanks to Melbourne beating Fremantle, and Brisbane beating Hawthorn. The Cats would need the Dees and Lions to cop an upset each to sneak into fourth.
Best-case scenario: 3rd (Hawthorn loses twice and all of Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne lose once)
Worst-case scenario: 8th (lose once and Collingwood wins twice)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0, finish 6th at 15-8, host TBC (likely Adelaide) in elimination final
‘The coach doesn’t run everything!’ | 09:10
8. COLLINGWOOD (12-8-1, 106.4%)
Remaining games
Round 23: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 7:40pm
Round 24: Brisbane at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm
To lock up top six: Win twice (and Geelong loses once, and Brisbane, Adelaide and/or Melbourne loses twice)
The Magpies clinched their spot with the win over West Coast, but they look pretty locked into 8th. To move any higher, they would probably need to upset both Hawthorn and Brisbane, since it’s hard to see Geelong losing to both North Melbourne and Richmond (never mind both). But we have them remaining in eighth while losing both games, because we have little faith in the Bulldogs to pass them. At worst if the Pies go 0-2, while the Blues go 2-0 and the Bulldogs beat Melbourne, they could drop into 10th – which may be costly as it’d send them into a tougher wildcard final match-up. That’s likely to be Geelong or Adelaide… if it’s the latter, maybe the Pies would prefer it. (That’s the only way they could play their first final away from the MCG). We have Craig McRae’s men getting a blockbuster wildcard clash with Carlton instead. Ooft.
Best-case scenario: 4th (win twice and Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne lose twice, and Geelong loses once)
Worst-case scenario: 10th (lose twice and Carlton wins twice and Bulldogs win once)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 0-2, finish 8th at 12-10-1, host Carlton in wildcard final
Collingwoods young team secure the win | 08:50
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-9, 93.9%)
Remaining games
Round 23: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 24: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm
To lock up wildcard: Win once
Things looked incredibly nervy after Thursday night’s loss to North Melbourne, but thanks to Gold Coast and Carlton’s wins on Sunday, the Bulldogs have already clinched a spot in the finals. They still need to worry about finishing as high as possible, though, to get an easier wildcard opponent. You’d much rather be in the 8th vs 9th game, and play one of Collingwood, Carlton or St Kilda, then finish 10th and play the dangerous team that finishes 7th (likely Adelaide, Geelong or Melbourne). Next week’s Dogs-Blues game will basically decide that, with the winner favoured for ninth.
Best-case scenario: 8th (win once and Collingwood loses twice)
Worst-case scenario: 10th (lose twice)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 0-2, finish 10th at 12-11, away to Adelaide in wildcard final
Beveridge reacts to costly loss | 12:19
10. CARLTON (11-10, 99.6%)
Remaining games
Round 23: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:15pm
Round 24: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm
To lock up wildcard: Win once
It was an almost-perfect weekend for Carlton. Beating the Saints, combined with the Giants’ loss, means they’re just one win or one St Kilda loss away from clinching an incredible finals berth. And with the Bulldogs losing too, the Blues are effectively playing for 9th spot next Sunday afternoon – and the chance to likely face the arch-enemy Collingwood in the 8th vs 9th wildcard final, instead of copping a tougher 7th-place finisher like Adelaide or Geelong. (Although the Blues do like playing the Cats.) But if the Blues lose their last two games, they can still be caught by the Saints (who finish with easy games against the Tigers and Suns) or the Giants (who would have to beat the Eagles plus Adelaide away; this is less likely). We would suspect if Carlton finishes 0-2 they will miss the finals, so next week is critical.
Best-case scenario: 8th (win twice and Bulldogs and Collingwood lose twice)
Worst-case scenario: Miss finals (lose twice and St Kilda or GWS wins twice)
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1, finish 9th at 12-11, face Collingwood in wildcard final
Cruel blow as NAS limps off early! | 00:34
11. ST KILDA (9-12, 101.6%)
Remaining games
Round 23: Richmond at the MCG, Saturday 12:35pm
Round 24: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm
To lock up wildcard: Win twice and Carlton loses twice
They can still play finals… even without Nas. It’s a pretty simple scenario after Sunday night’s loss to Carlton; the Saints need to win both of their games while the Blues lose both of theirs (vs Bulldogs, Dockers). The problem is the Bulldogs look pretty pedestrian right now and the Dockers might be resting players, so the Blues can absolutely win either of those. If the higher-ranked side wins every game from here St Kilda will play finals – but we’re predicting Carlton gets it done next week over the Dogs, which would send us into Round 24 with the top 10 locked.
Best-case scenario: 10th (win twice and Carlton loses twice)
Worst-case scenario: Miss finals
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 2-0 and miss finals
Experts split over Bizarre hammy goal | 00:37
12. GWS GIANTS (9-12, 98.9%)
Remaining games
Round 23: West Coast at ENGIE Stadium, Sunday 1:40pm
Round 24: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm
To lock up wildcard: Win twice (and Carlton loses twice and St Kilda loses once)
A brutal loss to the Suns has probably ended the Giants’ season. It’s not completely over – they’re two games out with two to play, and Carlton could certainly lose to both the Bulldogs and Fremantle. But that by itself wouldn’t get GWS into the top 10. They’d also need to beat both the Eagles and Crows (the latter is the hard part)… AND they’d need to get ahead of St Kilda, who face the lowly Tigers and Suns. The percentage gap to the Saints isn’t huge but they will probably need Ross Lyon’s side to lose at least once.
Best-case scenario: 10th (win twice and Carlton loses twice and St Kilda loses once)
Worst-case scenario: Miss finals
Fox Footy’s prediction: Go 1-1 and miss finals
Kingsley concedes finals hopes slipping | 08:01
North Melbourne (9-12, 90.9%) can mathematically play finals, but would need to beat Geelong and Sydney by large margins while hoping results go their way elsewhere (Carlton loses twice, St Kilda and GWS lose once). We can’t see it happening.
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