Every team’s predicted finish, ladder, top eight chances of every team, who can win the minor premiership, opinion, analysis, news

With just a month of regular season footy left until the finals, we’ve virtually been whittled down to 10 teams.

The Storm and Raiders are considered 0.1% chances of making the eight but as the Fox Sports Lab’s results suggest, they’ll need a miracle.

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With six teams assured of a top-eight berth, it leaves the Sea Eagles, Bulldogs, Cowboys and Rabbitohs fighting it out for the last two finals spots.

Meanwhile, a heated three-way shootout is set to go down for the minor premiership.

Read on for The Run Home!

1. PENRITH PANTHERS (36 points, +292)

Predicted finish: 1st

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 99.7%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 63.2%

Remaining games: Roosters (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Tigers (H)

Analysis: For much of the season they’ve looked a lock for the minor premiership but four losses in their past seven games has them sharing top spot on 36 points with the Roosters. They play the Tricolours this week and a loss could not only see them lose top spot, but they could drop to third if the Warriors record a big win over the 16th-placed Broncos. The loss of Isaah Yeo for at next the next few weeks is huge, but they do have a tremendous recent record against the Roosters. It’s a tricky run home but they’ve got three home games and have only lost at CommBank Stadium once this season.

2. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (36 points, +157)

Predicted finish: 2nd

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 95.8%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 25.9%

Remaining games: Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Analysis: They’re riding high after winning their past seven and Penrith’s stumble has put their minor premiership destiny in their own hands. They play Penrith this week but have only beaten them once since 2019. If they win on Thursday they should at least lock in a home game for the first week of the finals given they play the Tigers and Rabbitohs while the Dolphins game is at home. Angus Crichton and Daniel Tupou are due back in Round 26 and as long as James Tedesco overcomes his niggling ankle injury, they’re looking primed to go deep into the finals series.

3. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (34 points, +242)

Predicted finish: 3rd

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 95.8%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 10.3%

Remaining games: Broncos (A), Rabbitohs (A), Knights (H), Sea Eagles (H)

Analysis: They sent a message to the competition with a fairly dominant win over Penrith last week. They’re knocking on the door for a top two finish and should win all their remaining games which will put huge pressure on the two teams above them. A top two finish will be vital to their premiership hopes because they might not have to leave Auckland until grand final week if things go to plan. They’re at least a 12-point better side in New Zealand and after the Souths game in Sydney on August 22, they might not have to come back to Australia until the grand final. It would be a dream scenario which doesn’t look far off at the moment.

4. CRONULLA SHARKS (32 points, +169)

Predicted finish: 4th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 81.5%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.4%

Remaining games: Raiders (H), Titans (A), Eels (A), Storm (H)

Analysis: It was predicted last week that the Sharks would win their remaining five games to really challenge for the minor premiership but that looks over now after the upset loss to St George Illawarra. They will be favoured to win their next four games with the Storm fixture in Round 26 looking like their toughest test. They’re only winning 50 per cent of their away games but play the lowly Titans and Eels on the road.

5. DOLPHINS (32 points, +98)

Predicted finish: 5th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 25.7%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%

Remaining games: Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H), Roosters (A), Titans (A)

Analysis: They will play in their first finals series after the derby win last week. The Roosters game in Sydney looks to be the only one they’re in danger of dropping although their defence is very suspect so they’re not the most reliable team going around. They only play once more at home too and have an in-form Knights breathing down their neck for fifth spot. They should get a home final given Souths are four points back and have a tough draw.

6. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (30 points, +66)

Predicted finish: 6th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 1.0%

Remaining games: Titans (H), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), BYE

Analysis: They’re defying expectations without halfback Dylan Brown and Origin forward Dylan Lucas. Bradman Best was also absent from the Raiders win on Sunday. If they hold their form they should beat the Titans and Sea Eagles before their toughest test against the Warriors before the luxury of a bye to end the regular season. If Kalyn Ponga stays fit they’re a very good chance of hosting a finals match.

7. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (28 points, +66)

Predicted finish: 7th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 81.4%

Chance of finishing top four: 0.5%

Remaining games: Bulldogs (A), Warriors (H), Titans (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: They desperately needed to win last week and held on against Parramatta which was a must-win game given their run home. The Bulldogs, Warriors and Roosters will likely start favourites against them and with the Cowboys and Bulldogs having fairly soft runs in, they could fall out of the eight. They need to win at least two of their final four to make it. This week’s game against the Bulldogs might decide their fate.

8. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (28 points, -76)

Predicted finish: 8th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 66.5%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Remaining games: Eels (A), bye, Tigers (H), Raiders (H)

Analysis: They bounced back after the Roosters horror show to beat the 15th-ranked Titans in a solid performance which go them back into the top eight and there will be no excuses not to play finals footy given their draw. They still have a bye and play teams who are out of finals contention and finish off with two home games. They should get Jeremiah Nanai and Tom Dearden back soon.

9. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (26 points, -46)

Predicted finish: 9th

Chance of finishing in top eight:41.4 %

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Dragons (A), Panthers (A), Broncos (H)

Analysis: The tight loss to the Roosters was a big blow but they’re playing well enough to win three of their final four games and sneak into the finals, possibly at the expense of the Rabbitohs, who they play this week. Sitili Tupouniua going down injured with another hamstring injury is not ideal but they should be good enough to beat Souths, St George Illawarra and Brisbane at home to finish the season.

10. MANLY SEA EAGLES (24 points, +68)

Predicted finish: 10th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 13.8%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Remaining games: Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (A)

Analysis: They likely cost themselves a finals spot after giving up a 14-point lead against Melbourne last week. They’re staring down the barrel of a sixth-straight loss against the lethal Dolphins. The fact they end the season against the Warriors in Auckland means we can probably put a line through them now as their injury toll mounts.

11. MELBOURNE STORM (22 points, -4)

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.1%

Remaining games: BYE, Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Sharks (A)

Analysis: It’s been a funny season for Melbourne who have had a couple of losing streaks and winning periods which is unusual for such a consistent club. Their win over Manly last week still technically kept them alive in the premiership and they get the bye this week. The problem after that is they face top four teams Penrith and Cronulla in the final three weeks. At best, they can only finish on 30 points which means they’re relying on other results going their way. They really need the Cowboys and Rabbitohs to lose a stack of matches.

12. CANBERRA RAIDERS (22 points, -65)

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.1%

Remaining games: Sharks (A), Broncos (H), BYE, Cowboys (A)

Analysis: Another team which can only finish on 30 points at best. They get a bye so three-straight wins gets them on the edge of the eight. The problem is two of those games are on the road and against top eight sides in Cronulla and North Queensland. It’s been a highly disappointing season for last year’s minor premiers who have been ill-disciplined and threw a number of games away.

13. PARRAMATTA EELS (20 points, -183)

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Remaining games: Cowboys (H), Dolphins (A), Sharks (H), Dragons (A)

Analysis: It’s been a shocker of a season from Round 1 for the Eels who have been hit with the league’s worst injury toll. As they’ve got a few players back they’ve performed better but are still leaking too many points. It’s going to be a tough three-week run now against finals-bound teams which likely sees them slipping further down the ladder late.

14. WESTS TIGERS (20 points, -211)

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Remaining games: Dragons (H), Roosters (A), Cowboys (A), Panthers (A)

Analysis: Who would have thought that they’d be sitting this low on the ladder after winning five of their first seven? This week’s home game against the last-placed Dragons might be the only little bit of relief they get on the run home. After this week they’re on the road against two top four teams and the Cowboys who still have everything to play for. It could get ugly late for Benji Marshall’s squad which has been embroiled in controversy for months.

15. GOLD COAST TITANS (18 points, -144)

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Remaining games: Knights (A), Sharks (H), Rabbitohs (H), Dolphins (H)

Analysis: The Titans were travelling fairly well since Round 14 when they upset the Broncos. But they’ve lost their past two at home in convincing fashion which prompted coach Josh Hannay to say they were struggling with the rigours of a long NRL season. They have three home games to end the year but three of the four teams they face have already locked in finals berths and the other is fighting to stay in the top eight so it’s a tough run home for what is a tired footy team.

16. BRISBANE BRONCOS (18 points, -164)

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Remaining games: Warriors (H), Raiders (A), Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)

Analysis: Michael Maguire continues to drive the narrative that his players are working hard, but they’re not getting results. Now that finals football is off the agenda they look like a side that isn’t prepared to play a full 80 minutes. It could get ugly against the Warriors this week, but they are coming off a big-game win over Penrith so they might be off a touch emotionally. Road trips to Canberra and Sydney will be hard to get up for and the Storm at home is another tough one. While unlikely, there is a disaster scenario where Brisbane gets the wooden spoon given its tough run home and the comparatively easy finish the Dragons have.

17. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (12 points, -265)

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Remaining games: Tigers (A), Bulldogs (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H)

Analysis: The Dragons enjoyed a rare win over top four side the Sharks last week and if they hold that form they could go on a little winning run to end the season. They don’t play any top eight sides. Could they win all four games and avoid the wooden spoon?