The Supercars finals format isn’t for everyone.
For those purists among us, however, there’s the Sprint Cup.
Contested over nine rounds and 28 races, the Sprint Cup comprises the bulk of the season and is more than enough racing to sort the wheat from the chaff. It may not have the prestige of the championship, but it’s an indicator of the sort of consistency that has traditionally been the hallmark of title triumphs.
Watch every race of the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship LIVE & ad-break free during racing on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.
It ends this weekend with the Ipswich Super 440, the final round before the endurance season.
Matt Payne starts this weekend on the cusp of Sprint Cup glory.
He hasn’t led all season, but he’s controlled the top of the title standings for the last six races and for eight races in total. His 118-point advantage is the biggest lead any driver has had all season. Momentum is clearly on his side.
But he isn’t the only driver dreaming of Sprint Cup glory at Queensland Raceway this weekend.
Brox Feeney trails by 118 points, and Cam Waters is still in contention at 277 points in arrears.
Can either cause a mighty upset?
Can Piastri claw back ground on Norris? | 02:30
THE CONTENDER: BROC FEENEY
Feeney’s chance is the most realistic, though the numbers are clearly far beyond his control.
Several permutations are possible.
The Queenslander must win all three races with Payne scoring two seventh places and an eighth in any order.
He can also claim the Sprint Cup with three victories and on the podium on Sunday so long as the Kiwi fails to finish one Saturday race and finishes fourth in the other.
Alternatively, Feeney can finish second and third behind Payne in Saturday’s races so long as he wins on Sunday with his rival failing to finish.
Anything less and the New Zealander will clinch the minor prize, the bonus points and the finals qualification.
Feeney has found form just in time in an attempt to force a favourable outcome. He was competitive all weekend in Perth, where he snapped a seven-race victory and podium drought with a win on Saturday. He came achingly close to doubling up on Sunday but finished a close and frustrated second to Payne.
“Is Matt beatable? 100 per cent,” he said. “Everyone’s beatable.
“They’re doing a great job at the moment, him and his team, but we beat them on Saturday and we nearly beat them on Sunday [in Perth].
“We know we’re far from our best at the moment. We’re hoping Queensland Raceway is another step in that right direction for us getting back in the fight for every race.
“We want to be back in the fight for race wins, so if we can get up front, we’ll be making sure that we stay up there.”
Feeney also has historical form on his side, having taken all three pole positions here last year and turning them into a pair of wins and a runner-up finish.
There’s also the home-track advantage at play, if not for Queenslander Feeney then for his Brisbane-based team.
Queensland teams have won 21 of the last 28 races in Ipswich, and Triple Eight won all three of last year’s races.
“I’m just looking forward to being back racing at QR,” he told the Supercars website. “It was an awesome event last year
“For us it’s a home track. Do we have a home track advantage? I certainly hope so. We’ll find out.”
Piastri’s proposed exit a costly one | 02:21
THE OUTSIDER: CAM WATERS
Waters also arrives in good form. Though he went without a podium in Perth, he’d collected five trophies, including for two wins, from the preceding six races.
Tickford is undoubtedly on the up too. Its last nine qualifying results have been well above its season average, and seven of them have seen at least one of its cars qualify within 0.1s of the fastest time.
Thomas Randle set the outright fastest time on Saturday, albeit it was in a Q1 session and thus he didn’t take pole position.
Waters is also in statistically rare form.
He’s the fifth-best qualifier in the sport, with an average qualifying result of 7.9.
But he’s also the third-best driver at making up ground, with 2.0 positions gained on average in every race. Only Kai Allen (2.2 places) and Jack Le Brocq (2.1 places) do it better — but both of them are starting much further back.
According to statistics compiled by Supercars, only one driver in the last decade has had such a high qualifying average and still made up so many positions — Will Brown in his title-winning 2024 campaign.
The mathematics are much more difficult for him, however.
The Tickford star must win all three races with Payne failing to finish at least two of them. The Kiwi must then finish no higher than 17th on Saturday or 23rd on Sunday to complete the points turnaround.
Will Piastri close the gap to Lando? | 11:04
THE FAVOURITE: MATT PAYNE
Even beyond the points margins, and the good stories to be told by his rivals, the form guide is indisputably in Payne’s favour.
He arrives in Ipswich having won three of the last five races and having not finished off the podium in seven races.
He claimed his first outright round victory in Perth last time out but was second overall for the four weekends prior to that.
Payne has been classified outside the top eight only twice all year — once in Melbourne and a second time in Christchurch, both due to incidents rather than form.
With an average finishing position of 4.1, he only needs to keep doing what he’s doing to guarantee himself a finals berth.
The only twist is that Ipswich was a particularly poor track for Payne and his Grove team last season. It was the Kiwi’s second lowest scoring round of the Sprint Cup, comprising no podiums and only one top-five finish.
“QR is definitely an interesting one for us,” he told Fox Sports. “I felt like we really struggled there the most last year in practice, coming out of that — I think on Friday we were back 18, 19, 20, sort of in that region, and when you’re seeing those numbers on the dash, it’s not ever that confidence-inspiring.
“But for sure we’ve come so far from that point. Even the last two or three months have been a huge shift for us. It’s going to be really cool to roll out for both of those tracks and see how we go.
“I’ve got pretty high confidence knowing that, from the rest of the season that we’ve done already, hopefully we’re going to be pretty strong.”
Consistency wins championships — or, this weekend, likely the Sprint Cup at least.
“This has opened a can of worms!” | 09:44
WHAT ABOUT THE FINALS?
Though we’re not at the finals cut-off yet — the points are tallied after the Bathurst 1000 — we’re close enough to the finals to begin ruling drivers in or out.
Drivers on the cusp of qualifying
Regardless of who wins the Sprint Cup this weekend, both Payne and Feeney are all but certain to secure a finals ticket anyway.
Only 600 points will remain after this weekend. Payne and Feeney are 875 points and 757 points clear of 11th place respectively.
Almost any score will guarantee them places.
Waters is likely to lock in a final berth too; he’s currently 598 points ahead of 10th place.
Good weekends for three more drivers could also see them safe ahead of the endurance rounds.
Brodie Kostecki has been in good form — albeit Perth was a quiet weekend — and is 515 points ahead of 11th place. He needs just another 95 points to qualify.
Kai Allen in fifth is only 25 points adrift. One of last year’s four grand finalists, Allen has made himself a fixture among the leaders, and early qualification for the knockout rounds would be a clear marker of his progress.
Anton de Pasquale is the sole Chevrolet representative among those who can lock in their finals places this weekend. At 460 points ahead of 11th place, he’d need a very impressive weekend to do it, but realistically he’s in a strong place to make the finals regardless.
Gap to 11th place
1. Matt Payne: +875 points
2. Broc Feeney: +757 points
3. Cam Waters: +598 points
4. Brodie Kostecki: +515 points
5. Kai Allen: +490 points
6. Anton de Pasquale: +460 points
‘Cannot explain to you the devastation!’ | 01:28
Drivers on the cusp of being knocked out
At the other end of the ledger, however, are several drivers at risk of being mathematically eliminated from championship contention.
Jobe Stewart is 597 points off a finals berth; he, Jackson Walls and Macauley Jones are all more than 500 points adrift and likely to be knocked out this weekend.
It’s in the middle, though, where things get more interesting.
Gap to 10th place
9. Ryan Wood: +140 points
10. Jack Le Brocq: (1095 points)
11. James Golding: -20 points
12. Thomas Randle: -119 points
13. Andre Heimgartner: -128 points
14. Jayden Ojeda: -132 points
Jack Le Brocq holds 10th but is just 20 points clear of James Golding in 11th, having pinched the place from him on Sunday in Townsville.
It looks increasingly like 10th is the only place that will be up for grabs, putting immense pressure on Le Brocq to hold it.
Ryan Wood is 140 points ahead in ninth, and Chaz Mostert is another 68 points up the road.
Behind, however, are Golding, Thomas Randle (119 points down), Andre Heimgartner (128 points) and Jayden Ojeda (132 points).
For what it’s worth, this time last year nine of the finalists were already inside the top 10 — only Allen was missing, with Heimgartner to eventually drop out in exchange.
Heimgartner was 90 points clear of 11th place; Allen was 80 points outside the top 10.
All will have the opportunity of the endurance rounds to try to seal the deal of course, but with co-drivers in the mix and with single-race opportunities to make a difference, it will be much harder to overcome inertia for those who can’t make a dent on these margins this weekend.
#Adessonews seleziona nella rete articoli di particolare interesse.
Se vuoi leggere l’articolo completo clicca sul seguente link
Source link
