The race for the NRL minor premiership is heating up with two rounds remaining – and four teams are in the hunt, according to the latest data from the Fox Sports Lab.
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Following the Roosters’ shock loss to the Wests Tigers on Sunday, the Warriors are now in the box seat to secure a breakthrough maiden premiership. What’s more their win-loss record and points differential means the Warriors have a huge home-ground advantage hypothetically leading all the way up to the NRL grand final.
Round 26
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The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers and based on team ratings, the remaining games have been simulated 100,000 times, with the venues adding a little extra weighting to find out where the teams will finish on the ladder.
1. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (38 points, +295)
Predicted finish: 2nd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 100%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 45.6%
Remaining games: Knights (H), Sea Eagles (H)
Analysis: Thanks to some favourable results outside their control, the Warriors campaign was already gathering momentum fast. But a seemingly unnecessary Luke Hanson 79th minute field goal over the Rabbitohs now has New Zealand sitting atop the NRL ladder, just one point ahead of the Panthers. The result is important because it gets the Warriors a step closer not only to the minor premiership but a top-two finish, which would ensure two home finals in Auckland, and four consecutive matches in NZ – the most influential home ground advantage in rugby league. Only the Knights and the Sea Eagles stand in the Warriors’ way.Interestingly, the Panthers are still considered most likely to earn top spot according to the Fox Sports Lab by a mere 1.5%.
2. PENRITH PANTHERS (38 points +294)
Predicted finish: 1st
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 100%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 47.1%
Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), Tigers (H)
Analysis: Every point matters in the run to September; just ask Ivan Cleary. A solitary point now stands between his side and another momentous NRL minor premiership. However, the Panthers are still favourites to secure the feat, with games against the Bulldogs and Wests Tigers likely to yield a more favourable points differential than the Warriors’ matches against the Knights and Sea Eagles. The Fox Sports Lab sees it that way too. They’re a 47.1% chance to finish first with the Wahs considered a 45.6% hope. That said, this is rugby league, and anything can happen. The Panthers are still without captain Isaah Yeo.
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3. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (38 points, +162)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 94.6%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 7.2%
Remaining games: Dolphins (H), Rabbitohs (A)
Analysis: The eastern suburbs men were brought back down to earth in the most stunning fashion on Sunday, losing to the struggling Wests Tigers at home in what was a complacent performance. It may not only cost them the minor premiership but a home final in the first week as they went from first to third on the table. Their top spot odds have been slashed to 7.2% so they’ll need to win their two remaining games and hope both the Warriors and Panthers lose one. Roosters conceded five tries against the Tigers and they now come up against one of the best attacking teams in the competition in the Dolphins. Despite the loss, the Roosters are still rated a 94.6% chance of finishing inside the top four. Concerns about James Tedesco’s injured ankle grow each week he doesn’t play. Nearly a month ago he came off as a precaution against the Cowboys and it looked like he’d only miss a week or two, but it’s obviously worse than first thought. Angus Crichton may be back this week. It’s not an easy run home against the Dolphins and arch rivals Souths who will be desperate in the final round, likely with Latrell Mitchell back in the side.
4. DOLPHINS (36 points, +138)
Predicted finish: 4th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 57.9%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%
Remaining games: Roosters (A), Titans (A)
Analysis: They again were too classy for their opposition on the weekend and if they have a sizeable win over the Roosters this weekend they could leapfrog them into third and all but guarantee a top-four finish given they play the Titans down the road in the last round. The Roosters have won four of the past five games against Dolphins but the Dolphins won the most recent. They seem to have the attitude of “we’ll just score more points than you” which might get them into the top four, but history says isn’t going to win them a comp. Their confidence is sky-high, however, and are looking to make it six wins on the trot. Without many injuries, they’re coming good at the right time of the season.
5. CRONULLA SHARKS (34 points, +173)
Predicted finish: 5th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 47.5%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Eels (A), Storm (H)
Analysis: They got their season back on track with a solid enough win over the lowly Titans, but it still wasn’t good enough to give their fans confidence heading into the finals after two losses to non-top eight teams. They should win their final two games of the season if they play close to their best, but that hasn’t happened a lot in the past three weeks so a top four finish isn’t a lock like it looked to be a few weeks back when they were even considered a minor premiership hope. They’ll be sweating on getting Braydon Trindall back from a shoulder injury. They play the Eels this week and have won nine of their past 13 games against them.
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6. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (32 points, +56)
Predicted finish: 6th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Warriors (A), BYE
Analysis: The Knights blew their chances of making the top four with an average performance against the Sea Eagles. Their coach Justin Holbrook claimed after the game that they were feeling the pinch physically, after being up for a long time. This week’s match-up, the Warriors away, is probably coming at the worst possible time for a team looking for an easy game. Since 2006, no team has a worse record in Auckland than Knights (12.5 per cent). They get the much-needed bye in the final round which probably should be enough to get them a home final in the first week of the playoffs, but not if they lose this week and the Cowboys win their final two matches, which is a distinct possibility. Win this week and they’re a lock for a home final, which would be a great achievement given the players they’ve lost to injury this season.
7. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (30 points, +33)
Predicted finish: 7th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 92.8%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Titans (A), Roosters (H)
Analysis: The Fox Sports Lab have given them a 7.2% chance of missing the eight although they will officially lock in a finals berth if they defeat the Titans on the Gold Coast this week in what could be a shootout given both teams aren’t the best defensive sides but have attacking flair. The expected return of Latrell Mitchell is a massive boost and it alone could win them this game and get them back into the finals. South Sydney’s 75 per cent winning record against the Titans is its best record against any opponent and they’ve won the past 10 games between the teams. They don’t want to lose and go into a must-win game against the Roosters in the last round.
8. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (30 points, -78)
Predicted finish: 8th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 83.9%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Tigers (H), Raiders (H)
Analysis: They probably need to win both remaining games to lock in a top eight spot. They were long tipped to make the finals based on a soft draw, but slipped up against the Eels before their bye last week and the Tigers are coming off a win over the Roosters so it’s not looking as straightforward as it once was. Even the Raiders in the final round, where Josh Papali’i will play his final NRL game, won’t give up without a fight. Fresh off the bye, and with two home games against non-top eight teams remaining, there’s no excuses for the Cowboys. They may be inconsistent, but their recent history suggests they’ll win at least one of the final two.
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9. CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (28 points, -32)
Predicted finish: 9th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 19.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Panthers (A), Broncos (H)
Analysis: It’s generally not a good thing to have to beat the Panthers to keep your finals hopes alive, but the Bulldogs have had some recent success against the competition heavyweights, having won two of their past three clashes. Penrith are also understrength with Yeo, Alamoti and Kenny out along with Cogger who is suspended. Get through this one and they have the Broncos at home in the final round where the defending premiers may have Mad Monday already on their minds. They’re still relying on either the Cowboys or Rabbitohs to drop a game to be a chance of playing finals.
10. MANLY-WARRINGAH SEA EAGLES (26 points, +66)
Predicted finish: 10th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 4.7%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Dragons (H), Warriors (A)
Analysis: Manly finally brought up their 1000th win last week, snapping a six-game losing streak. They can still make the top eight if the Cowboys and Rabbitohs lose both their remaining games and they win theirs due to a good for-and-against. Getting the Dragons this week at home is a positive but the Warriors away in the last round could end up being a nightmare. Gun centre Tolu Koula is out which is a big blow but they might get back prop Taniela Paseka who is a chance to return from a knee injury. They should be too good this week, but next week is going to be a major problem against arguably the form team in the comp who will be trying to tie up the minor premiership. It looks too tough an ask from here.
11. MELBOURNE STORM (24 points -12)
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Broncos (A), Sharks (A)
Analysis: It’s been a tough year for the perennial finalists who have had major injury blows which started last off-season when star forward Eli Katoa suffered a brain bleed. They may get Jahrome Hughes back from a hamstring injury but it’s an outside hope and with the season over he might get an early mark ahead of the World Cup. Two away games makes it hard, but they love playing in Brisbane where they have the competition’s best winning percentage at 71.1 per cent. It gets much harder in the final round against the Sharks but they will fight it out to the end and couple of wins wouldn’t surprise.
12. CANBERRA RAIDERS (24 points, -65)
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: BYE, Cowboys (A)
Analysis: The bye has come at a good time after a devastating loss to the Broncos last week when in front in the match and playing for their season. They would need the week off, emotionally. The best they can do is finish on 28 points and don’t rule it out. Despite being long shots to make the finals for a few weeks now, they went to Cronulla a fortnight ago and won against the odds. Their defence and discipline have cost them a finals spot this year. They will take the final game very serious to try and send off Josh Papali’i with one final win in his last game in Raiders colours.
13. PARRAMATTA EELS (22 points, -119)
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Sharks (H), Dragons (A)
Analysis: There’s been few positives all season for Parramatta who have only won back-to-back games once in the early rounds. A horror injury run has made success virtually impossible. At least they won’t have to leave Sydney again this season. They’re at home this week where they have a decent win rate (50 per cent) this year considering their lowly spot on the ladder. And the Dragons away isn’t a tough test, so they could end the season on a positive note. They can put in a performance that’s above average, but haven’t been able to maintain the rage over a gruelling season. A win and a loss would be a good guess for their final two matches. But who knows who they could be against.
14. WESTS TIGERS (22 points, -212)
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Panthers (A)
Analysis: They proved miracles do occur with their win over the first-placed Roosters on Sunday. They’re on the road for the next fortnight and take on the Cowboys this week. The two clubs have played in some very high-scoring games in the past few seasons and the Tigers are on a club record five-game streak of scoring 28 points or more against Cowboys. Who knows which two teams will show up. The following week, however, they definitely know what kind of team will show up when they take on the Panthers, who beat them 68-0 earlier this year. On paper, it looks like a tough end to the season, but their confidence will be high after last week’s surprise result.
15. BRISBANE BRONCOS (20 points, -194)
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: They proved last week that they weren’t just going through the motions until the season ends and have won their past three games against the Storm, who have been their bogey team for years. It’s hard to believe they’re sitting in 15th and what’s also amazing is that they’re scoring less than 19 points per game on average after scoring 28.3 per game last year. They will have to finish off the season without skipper Adam Reynolds, who has played his final NRL game due to a calf injury. They won’t be keen to fly down to Sydney for the last round and if the Bulldogs are still a finals chance by then, it could be a tough day at the office.
16. GOLD COAST TITANS (18 points, -162)
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Dolphins (H)
Analysis: The Titans just can’t put 80 minutes together and it’s not through lack of trying. They’ve been out of the finals race for a while but are still looking good for parts of games. They just lack quality across the park and take on two top eight teams to end the season and those games could be very high-scoring. They’re on a four-game losing streak but could have easily won their past two.
17. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (14 points, -293)
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H)
Analysis: Their confidence took a hit with last week’s big loss after looking to go on a three-match winning streak. They don’t have to leave Sydney again which will be welcomed. Losing hooker Jacob Liddle won’t be, but Kade Reed could get a game which Dragons fans would probably like to see. They could easily win at least one of their final two against teams who are also not going to feature in the finals.
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