Carlton’s rise to wildcard final vs Melbourne, how coach Josh Fraser turned team around, Jagga Smith and Harry Dean rising star, analysis

Not even the most passionate, one-eyed Bluebagger would have thought Carlton would be here 15 weeks ago.

When Michael Voss departed with one win from nine games, obituaries were shared far and wide of another failed attempt by the Blues at building towards a premiership.

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A Carlton crisis was once again the punch line of many jokes.

A media scrum surrounding players in the Ikon Park carpark as the club imploded was happening more than frequently than an Olympic Games, a FIFA World Cup or an Ashes series.

With another coach gone and inability to hold onto a second half lead, the Blues appeared confined to more years in the doldrums.

Another rebuild was on the agenda with many suggesting the only way forward was to trade away established stars in another off-season exodus.

The rationale was to bank more top end picks before Tasmania clogs up the first round of upcoming drafts.

But they say a week is a long time in footy.

So, 15 weeks is an entirety.

Eleven wins, one draw, two losses and one bye later and the Blues are in the wildcard.

It has come as a shock, but this club only does things to the extremes.

Melbourne legend Garry Lyon summed up Carlton’s 2026 season best on Fox Footy during last Saturday’s 37-point win over minor premiers Fremantle by declaring it “the rollercoaster of rollercoasters”.

And the wild ride has left the AFL licking its lips.

A blockbuster wildcard meeting between famous rivals Carlton and Collingwood may not have eventuated, but the league’s hierarchy will be pleased with two nights of a packed-out MCG this weekend to stuff the coffers.

Fox Footy’s David King has stood by his stance that the wildcard is a “cash grab”, but regardless of your thoughts about the concept, everyone can agree it is about entertainment.

The wildcard was not made for a side that only beating the teams below them and barely fires shot against those above them on the ladder.

It is made for a freight train that can cause chaos.

THE WILD FRASER RIDE

The Josh Fraser era began with a win over the Western Bulldogs, and his ascension to the top job on a permanent basis was sealed with a wildcard-clinching draw against same the opponents.

Fraser reportedly presented better than any of the other candidates once he officially threw his hat into the ring for the full-time gig earlier this month.

But surely all the former Collingwood and Gold Coast ruck needed to do was point to the ladder from Round 10 onwards – no team has a better record that Carlton’s 11 wins, one draw and two losses.

Or maybe chuck on Kayo Minis of the heart-stopping win against last year’s grand finalists Geelong and the 76-point thrashing of back-to-back reigning premiers the Brisbane Lions.

Or play them the footage of the Navy Blue army chanting “We want Fraser” as their messiah made his way onto Marvel Stadium – where Carlton are unbeaten in their last seven outings under the roof – after brushing aside St Kilda three weeks ago in what was billed as effectively an elimination final.

After a night of jeering of ex-Blues Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni, it was a display of people power that basically sealed the deal.

Once Fraser was officially announced last week, Carlton fans then spoke with their wallets by selling out the club shop of hoodies.

More than 40,000 of them then packed-out Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon, dressed in their best replica of the coach’s signature look, and nearly blew the roof off the joint.

Ollie Hollands running almost 100 metres to tackle Patrick Voss in the goal square and prevent what should have been a certain goal for the Dockers’ chief antagonist created a noise that Oasis would have been proud of when they played the stadium last November.

The vibrations through the stands symbolised the new Carlton.

Hollands has been on the outer throughout the second half of the year – and he may well be dropped for the wildcard final if Will Hayward is passed fit – but was prepared to fight and leave it all out there to turn things around.

It is the attitude that has underpinned the Blues’ incredible run of form.

“The fans love it,” four-time premiership Hawk Jordan Lewis said on Fox Footy’s On The Couch on Monday night.

“We said it during the call (on Saturday), it is a game style that involves the fans along the way, in terms of it’s pretty chaotic.”

“Fun to watch,” Richmond legend Jack Riewoldt chimed in.

“It’s tackling, it’s short (kicking), it’s high marking. It’s that game as a fan you love to go and see because you feel like you’re involved,” Lewis continued.

And the new-look Carlton certainly cannot simply be put down to a new coach bounce – like they experienced under David Teague in 2019.

There has been incredible method to the madness.

WHAT’S CHANGED?

Changes in personnel have been crucial to a change in game style.

Fresh faces like Billy Wilson, Wade Derksen and Talor Byrne have become regulars, while talented prospect Jack Ison was also given in an eight-game run in the senior side after making his debut in Fraser’s first game as interim coach.

Meanwhile, former walk up starts like Adam Saad and Zac Williams have been banished to the VFL.

The biggest change has been how several players have been deployed.

Last year’s best and fairest winner George Hewett was infamously dropped to the reserves for four weeks earlier in the year as Carlton searched more speed in the middle of the ground.

But in a mid-forward role, Hewett has been in sensational form in the back half of the season.

Carlton simply addressed their speed concerns in a different way.

Adam Cerra was initially sent to the wing before playing the last five games across half back.

Hewett, meanwhile, still attends a lot of centre bounces along with Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and Jagga Smith, but he runs a rotation, primarily with Ben Ainsworth, that leads to him playing as a forward of centre link up man once the play spreads.

It then allows the likes of Ainsworth, Walsh, Smith, Matthew Cottrell and Will Hayward to push up the ground where better runners are needed.

And running the ball by hand between the arcs has been a pivotal aspect of Carlton’s much-improved ball movement.

Previously a long down the line team, the Blues now opt to build from the back with short passes until they can bite off the kick that opens up the ground and then surge forward with overlap run.

The quality of their kicking has undergone a remarkable transformation with defenders Jacob Weitering (86%), Dean (81%), Nic Newman (79%), Wade Derksen (77%), Billy Wilson (77%), Nick Haynes (77%) and Oli Florent (75%) all operating at a kicking efficiency of 75 per cent or better.

While his numbers are skewed by spending a large portion of the season in the midfield, Cerra’s foot skills certainly pass the eye test too since shifting back when Newman went down injured against Gold Coast.

Carlton is ranked first in the competition for uncontested marks since Round 10 because of their clean ball use, patience and spread.

The backline’s care by foot has allowed their teammates further up the ground to go to work – where collectivism is the name of the game.

In their stunning rout of Brisbane, sixteen Carlton players kicked a goal.

It was emblematic of their transformation this season that would make legendary Oakland As general manager Billy Beane, who Brad Pitt portrays in the baseball movie Moneyball, proud.

‘Moneyball’ often gets a mention in footy circles around this time year, but the true crux of it is sharing the load to achieve the required numbers.

That is exactly what Carlton’s forwards have done since the departure of Charlie Curnow.

While Curnow has picked up his third Coleman Medal in his first season with the Sydney Swans, Brodie Kemp is currently Carlton’s leading goal kicker.

Kemp, who played down back before being swung forward due to injuries to Curnow and Harry McKay late in 2024, came 25th in the Coleman race with 36 goals.

But for the first time in 25 years, Carlton had six players kick 20 or more goals for the season.

Kemp, Mitch McGovern (34), McKay (32), Ainsworth (26), Hayward (24) and Francis Evans (22) all regularly hit the scoreboard as the Blues found multiple avenues to goal.

Byrne (15), Cripps (14) and Hewett (13) have all chipped in too – highlighting how it is no longer a case of simply ‘bomb it long to Harry or Charlie’.

It’s a list that stands in stark contrast to last year when Curnow (32), McKay (22) and Williams (22) were the only players to kick better than a goal a game.

And it is a forward group where who kicks the goals does not matter.

As well as leading the goal kicking, Kemp has provided more goal assists than any other Blue with 17.

The unselfishness of Evans (16), Ainsworth (14), Smith (13), Byrne (11), McGovern and Cottrell (10) has been a regular feature too.

But the commitment to the team has been best showcased by their manic forward pressure.

Voss’ side at their best in the run to preliminary final in 2023 were brutal at the contest and fought like hell to lock their ball in their forward half.

That mantra remains with the other layers having been added to the game.

Cripps is set to poll heavily on Brownlow night once again having led the competition in clearances alongside Hawthorn’s Jai Newcombe with 174.

While only GWS Giant Clayton Oliver (343) has had more contested possessions than Cripps’ 334.

Walsh, who polled 30 Brownlow votes in 2021, has had the most disposals he has ever had in a season with 659 to be eighth in the competition.

He and Cripps also sit equal 10th in the league for score involvements with 161.

But the difference now is that their teammates further a field are making the most of their work better than they did before.

When Carlton build from the back, they open avenues to goal through run and spread.

When they win it from the contest, their new age mosquito fleet harass until they force an opening.

Kemp (32), Evans (28) and Byrne (19) have all averaged more than one tackle Inside 50 per game.

Their forward pressure has also led to incredibly impressive defensive numbers.

Since Fraser took charge, Carlton has ranked second for points against, third for opposition scores per Inside 50, second for opposition chain to score and fourth for opposition defensive 50 to Inside 50.

The latter two statistics highlight how the Blues are strangling their opponents in the forward half, and in between the arcs, in a huge contrast to earlier in the year when rivals waltzed down the ground.

Jonathan Brown highlighted Carlton’s line to defend the corridor at a forward 50 stoppage on Fox Footy’s On The Couch on Monday night.

It cast triple premiership Tiger Jack Riewoldt’s mind back nearly a decade.

“This is very Richmond 2017,” he said.

“What you’re showing right now is a blueprint to how the Tiges changed the game in 2017 – off the back of your Hawks, Jordy.

“It shows a well-structured team and a well-coached team.”

FREE SWING THIS FINAL SERIES

In the first of their three flags and four years, Richmond broke the shackles of decades of heartbreak to play with freedom and to feed off the energy of the Tiger Army all the way to a drought-breaking premiership.

Now, Damien Hardwick’s side finished third that year – only two points behind minor premiers the Adelaide Crows.

It is a very different position to Carlton finishing 10th, but some of the game’s biggest names have high hopes for the Blues.

West Coast premiership coach Adam Simpson said on SEN earlier this week that Fraser’s team are one of four sides he believes can win the premiership this year along with Fremantle, Brisbane and Geelong.

While Matthew Lloyd tempered things a little bit on Channel 9’s The Sunday Footy Show in saying that after “flawless” performances against the Dockers and the Lions that he would “be surprised if they don’t win one or two finals”.

In an unprecedented wildcard final, history is on Carlton’s side.

Albeit a small sample size, the Blues have not lost a final at the MCG in 25 years.

They thrashed Essendon in an elimination final in 2011 and then famously stunned Richmond after finishing ninth in 2013.

The Blues then defeated Sydney and Melbourne in euphoric back-to-back weeks in 2023.

Since losing a semi-final 2001 to Richmond, Carlton have been eliminated on the road in all six finals series they have played to date – three times by Brisbane, twice by Sydney and once by West Coast.

Melbourne, on the flip side, have lost their last four finals at the MCG – having gone out in straight sets in 2022 and 2023 after winning the flag in Perth in 2021.

A date with Geelong at the MCG awaits if the Blues can overcome the Demons.

And recent history is once again on Carlton’s side, having won four of their last five meetings, including their last three.

The stars may be aligning and with such an impressive form line, Demons great Garry Lyon had a clear message to Carlton’s rivals during their win against the Dockers.

“You don’t want to play this team. Not when they’re like this. It’s irrepressible at the moment,” Lyon said on Fox Footy.

PROMISE OF FUTURE SUCCESS

Regardless of how Saturday night or possibly the coming weeks plays out for the Blues, the promise of more to come is clear at Carlton.

While new recruits Ben Ainsworth, Will Hayward and Oli Florent have all made their mark and the likes of Blake Acres, Marc Pittonet and Matthew Cottrell have all rediscovered their best form, the heartbeat of Carlton’s resurgence has been its youth.

Six of the side that defeated Fremantle are aged 21 or under.

None better than Jagga Smith, who was crowned this year’s Rising Star on Tuesday night.

In his first season at AFL level, the midfielder racked up 59 coaches’ votes – the most ever by a player eligible for the Rising Star.

He also collected the Robert Walls Medal for best on ground against the reigning premiers.

Harry Dean was runner-up Rising Star and awarded the coaches’ association best first year player, meanwhile, with the father-son recruit establishing himself as an old-fashioned, no-nonsense defender.

Dean has beaten the likes of Logan Morris, Mitch Georgiades, Jake Waterman and Nate Caddy in head-to-head battles this season, and has led the club for spoils and one percenters.

Lachie Cowan could stake a claim to be the club’s most improved player as he has seemed to get better every week down back.

Talor Byrne has also become a fan favourite for his toughness and goal sense, and Cooper Lord is improving on a wing after cracking into the senior team late in the season.

While Billy Wilson joined Smith, Dean and Byrne with a Rising Star nomination for his performance against the Dockers.

A nod many at the Blues felt was overdue given the importance his foot skills have been in driving their ball movement.

“You make us better,” Fraser said of Wilson to the playing group when announcing his rising star nomination during a meeting on Monday.

“Your best footy changes the way we play.”

Diamond in the rough Wade Derksen and leading goalkicker Brodie Kemp are aged 25 and have shown that they have many years of AFL football ahead of them.

Plus, 19-year-old Jack Ison showed plenty of talent when given the chance in the senior team and father-son prospect Cody Walker is on the way.

There has been talk about the points situation to match a bid – which may come at pick 1.

But with the midfielder having featured regularly for the Blues’ VFL side this year and having nominated as a father-son last year, there is simply no way Carlton do not ensure he is wearing the #1 like his father Andrew did in more than 200 games.

Key defender Harry O’Farrell may crack into the team in 2027 too after showing plenty of promise before suffering an ACL injury late last season.

There is still the need for another key forward to support McKay and Kemp as well as another ruck – Carlton’s two losses under Fraser came when Pittonet was out and they were badly beaten out of the middle by Hawthorn and Collingwood with inexperienced pair Liam Reidy and Flynn Reilly are the centre bounces.

But there is a core group to build around.

Former list manager Nick Austin will no doubt feel hard done by after being sacked in the wake of Voss’ departure.

Austin and his team appear to have nailed several big calls.

The progress of those young players certainly keeps the dream of a fairytale premiership alive for the likes of their champion captain Patrick Cripps.

That idea would have seemed a lot more far fetched 15 weeks ago when that premiership window appeared bolted shut.