AFL 2026, The Run Home after Round 23

Nine games to decide the 10. Then 11 games to find the one.

With just one week left before the 2026 AFL finals, there are 10 teams still in contention for the premiership. Below, The Run Home explains every possible final-round scenario and predicts how the first ever AFL top ten will look.

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Note: We’re analysing the final round and every team as if no draws can or will happen… even though we just saw two in one weekend.

All times AEST.

CURRENT AFL LADDER (After Round 23)

1. Fremantle (19-3, 142.5%)

2. Sydney Swans (17-5, 134.5%)

3. Brisbane Lions (15-7, 119.5%)

4. Hawthorn (14-6-2, 117.3%)

5. Melbourne (15-7, 111.2%)

6. Geelong (14-8, 120.2%)

7. Adelaide Crows (14-8, 115.1%)

8. Collingwood (12-8-2, 106.1%)

9. Western Bulldogs (12-9-1, 94.1%)

10. Carlton (11-10-1, 99.6%)

11. St Kilda (10-12, 104.2%)

12. GWS Giants (10-12, 101.8%)

13. North Melbourne (9-13, 90.7%)

14. Gold Coast Suns (8-14, 93.2%)

15. Port Adelaide (6-16, 87%)

16. West Coast Eagles (4-18, 70.5%)

17. Richmond (3-19, 62.8%)

18. Essendon (2-20, 63.5%)

PREDICTED FINALS BRACKET

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Fremantle vs Hawthorn at Optus Stadium

First Elimination Final (5th hosts Lowest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Melbourne vs TBC at the MCG

First Wildcard Final (7th hosts 10th): Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval

Second Wildcard Final (8th hosts 9th): Collingwood vs Carlton at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts Highest Ranked Wildcard Winner): Geelong vs TBC at the MCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions at the SCG

The wildcard finals are played the week after the home and away season ends, with the top six teams getting a bye.

And, to be clear, the wildcard games are finals. The name is just branding; they are not play-in games, or true ‘wildcards’ for teams who didn’t win their division or conference, or whatever other sports have. We have a top 10, and ‘wildcard games’ are just what the first two games are called.

PREDICTED FINAL LADDER

1. Fremantle (19-4)

2. Sydney Swans (18-5)

3. Brisbane Lions (16-7)

4. Hawthorn (15-6-2)

5. Melbourne (16-7)

6. Geelong (15-8)

7. Adelaide Crows (15-8)

8. Collingwood (12-9-2)

9. Carlton (12-10-1)

10. Western Bulldogs (12-10-1)

11. St Kilda (11-12)

12. GWS Giants (10-13)

13. North Melbourne (9-14)

14. Gold Coast Suns (8-15)

15. Port Adelaide (7-16)

16. West Coast Eagles (4-19)

17. Richmond (3-20)

18. Essendon (2-21)

KEY TALKING POINTS

– Dylan Moore failing to make the distance is likely to be incredibly consequential for the 2026 AFL season. With Fremantle and Sydney locked into the top two spots, Brisbane is now the favourite for third (and the more favourable qualifying final vs Sydney), around 7 goals of percentage ahead of Hawthorn. A Dockers-Lions Grand Final has become more likely;

– Melbourne can still sneak into the top four if either the Lions or Hawks lose, but that’s very unlikely as their opponents have little to play for. Brisbane’s opponent Collingwood is all-but-mathematically locked into the 8th vs 9th wildcard final, and Hawthorn’s opponent West Coast is long eliminated. The Hawks play last so they’ll know the margin they need to finish third, so they’re still a chance of avoiding the Freo qualifying final, but they’re probably gonna have to win big;

– Adelaide is favoured for 7th thanks to their valiant loss to the Dockers. They’re about 15 goals of percentage behind Geelong, who avoided the North Melbourne banana peel. The Crows could still catch any of the Lions, Hawks, Demons (vs Dogs) or Cats (vs Tigers) if those sides lose… we’d be surprised if any of them lost, though. It’s possible none of their opponents have anything to play for;

– As mentioned Collingwood is virtually guaranteed a spot in the 8th vs 9th wildcard final, and there is absolutely no reason for them to care about their position, because their opponent will be Victorian and thus the game will be at the MCG regardless;

– The draw between the Western Bulldogs and Carlton gave the former pole position in the battle to avoid the tougher wildcard game. If the Dogs win (vs Demons), or the Blues lose (vs Dockers), then the Dogs will face the Magpies in the 8-9 wildcard final. If the Dogs lose and the Blues win, then it’ll be Carlton-Collingwood in the 8-9 game instead. The loser is probably heading to Adelaide for the 7-10 wildcard final. Realistically the Dogs should hold onto 9th but we just have this feeling about Carlton…

HOW ROUND 24 WILL PLAY OUT, CHRONOLOGICALLY

Thursday night: St Kilda vs Gold Coast Suns, 7:30pm at Marvel Stadium

Carlton’s draw against the Bulldogs in Round 23 locked in the top 10 and ended St Kilda’s season, with Ross Lyon’s side guaranteed yet another just-below-mid-table finish (11th last year, 13th in 2024, 6th but lost their elimination final in 2023, 10th in 2022 and 2021).

Friday night: Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions, 7:40pm at the MCG

Collingwood pinching two points in the draw against Hawthorn last Saturday night lowered the stakes on this one. The Magpies are effectively playing for nothing – they can’t realistically finish above 8th, or below 9th, and they’d be playing an MCG final either way – so they’ll be the test of Greg Swann’s resting rule. The stakes are still high for the Lions who can clinch a top-four finish with victory, and will want to win by as much as possible to ensure Hawthorn can’t catch them on percentage, to finish 3rd instead of 4th. The Lions’ lead before the round starts is about seven goals. The Lions could drop all the way to 7th with a loss, though the Crows would need to win by a lot (14+ goals as it stands) to catch them.

Saturday early: Carlton vs Fremantle, 1:15pm at Marvel Stadium

The Blues completed their ‘sack the coach but still play finals’ speedrun by drawing with Bulldogs on Sunday, though failing to win means they’ve still got stakes in this one. To finish 9th they need to beat the Dockers while hoping the Bulldogs lose to Melbourne. With victory the Blues would instead face Collingwood; with a loss, or a Dogs win, the Blues would likely face Adelaide away in their wildcard game.

Saturday twilight: Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs, 4:15pm at the MCG

The Bulldogs may come into this game with nothing to play for – if Carlton can’t beat Fremantle, the Dogs will be locked into the 8th-9th wildcard final against Collingwood. They could still rise up to 8th by beating the Demons but that means nothing. If the Dogs lose, and the Blues win, Luke Beveridge’s side is likely heading to Adelaide for its wildcard final instead. The Demons would probably love it if the Dogs had less to play for, because they need a win to clinch a top-six finish and keep their top-four hopes alive. Steven King’s men would need a Brisbane or Hawthorn loss to grab the double chance. If the Dees lose, they’d be strong favourites for 7th, where they’d play Carlton.

Saturday night: Geelong vs Richmond, 7:45pm at GMHBA Stadium

It should be very simple for Geelong in their final home game of the season – win and clinch an MCG elimination final. Should results go as expected they’d finish 6th, and be in line to host Adelaide (if the Crows win their wildcard final). There’s a slim chance the Cats could sneak into the top four, requiring losses from two of Brisbane, Hawthorn or Melbourne. Their percentage lead over Adelaide is pretty substantial and a healthy win over Richmond should mean the Crows can’t realistically close it.

Saturday night: Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants, 8:10pm at Adelaide Oval

The Crows’ loss to Fremantle means they need help to avoid the wildcard – a loss from one of Brisbane, Hawthorn, Melbourne or Geelong should do it. The problem is while the Lions have the toughest game (away to Collingwood), they also have the percentage edge on the Crows, so Matthew Nicks’ men would need to win very well (at least 10+ goals). If results go as expected the Crows will effectively be locked into 7th, because the Cats’ percentage gap is already huge and they’re playing Richmond. The Giants’ season ended with Carlton’s draw against the Bulldogs in Round 23.

Sunday early: Essendon vs Port Adelaide, 12:20pm at Marvel Stadium

There’s an argument both sides want Essendon to win. Assuming a Geelong win on Saturday night, an Essendon win would give Richmond the wooden spoon… and Pick 1, which Port Adelaide could then ask for if Zak Butters seeks a trade. (Pick 1 is a hell of a lot better for Port than Pick 2, because it’s expected to be the only way they can avoid a Pick 1 bid on Dougie Cochrane.) Otherwise this game merely exists.

Sunday afternoon: Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne, 3:20pm at the SCG

The Swans have already clinched second place and a home qualifying final, with their opponent likely to be determined by percentage (Brisbane currently ahead of Hawthorn by seven goals). The Kangaroos were eliminated from the finals race after Saturday’s loss to Geelong, though Carlton’s draw against the Bulldogs would’ve had the same effect if North had won.

Sunday night: West Coast Eagles vs Hawthorn, 7:20pm at Optus Stadium

Just like last year, Hawthorn is likely to go into an interstate Round 24 Sunday night game able to finish in the top four (with a win) or outside the bottom six (with a loss). Except this time the game should be a lot easier than last year’s trip to the Gabba. The Hawks coughed up third spot by drawing with Collingwood (again), but will know the exact margin they need to get it back from Brisbane (should they beat Collingwood earlier in the round) – it’s currently around 7 goals. Should the Hawks lose, they’re likely to fall behind all of Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide, all the way into the wildcard… which would mean at best a six-day break off a Perth trip before their first final. So don’t lose!

TEAM-BY-TEAM FINALS SCENARIOS

1. FREMANTLE (19-3, 142.5%)

To play: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

Win or Lose: Finish 1st

Analysis: The Dockers claimed the second minor premiership in club history (2015) by beating Adelaide last Friday night. They will host the First Qualifying Final at Optus Stadium in just under three weeks’ time, where they’re likely to host Hawthorn or Brisbane. It should come down to percentage with the Lions currently around seven goals up. The pre-finals bye gives the Dockers no reason to mass rest players; Carlton will still be hoping they do, but until we know exactly who’s likely to miss that game, we can’t tip against them.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 1st, host Hawthorn in a qualifying final

2. SYDNEY SWANS (17-5, 134.5%)

To play: North Melbourne at the SCG, Sunday 3:20pm

Win or Lose: Finish 2nd

Analysis: After Fremantle clinched top spot to open Round 23, the Swans clinched second to end the round. They will host the Second Qualifying Final at the SCG in just under three weeks’ time, and can now decide whether to manage players against the already-eliminated Kangaroos next week. The Swans are extremely likely to play either the Lions or the Hawks, depending on percentage, with the Lions seven goals up as it stands. The Hawks play in the final game of the season so they’ve got a strong chance of returning to 3rd, but we’re backing Brisbane to hold on.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 2nd, host Brisbane in a qualifying final

3. BRISBANE LIONS (15-7, 119.5%)

To play: Collingwood at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

Win: Finish 3rd if Hawthorn (vs WC) loses or can’t make up 7-goal percentage gap, otherwise 4th

Lose: Finish 3rd if Hawthorn, Melbourne (vs WB), Geelong (vs RIC) and Adelaide* (vs GWS) all lose, 4th if three lose, 5th if two lose, 6th if one loses, 7th if none lose

Analysis: A huge two weeks for the Lions, who thumped Hawthorn, and then saw that become extremely relevant when the Hawks gave up two premiership points by drawing with Collingwood. Brisbane’s approx. 7-goal percentage lead means if they go to the MCG, and thump a Collingwood side that’s got effectively nothing to play for, they should get the easier qualifying final match-up with Sydney (even if they’d risk an away prelim against Fremantle in the process, you’d say it’s worth it for the better chance of hosting a prelim by beating the Swans). At a minimum Brisbane clinches a top-four spot with victory. With a loss, they’d risk dropping all the way down to 7th – though the Crows would need to beat the Giants by a lot to catch them on percentage, so 6th would be slightly more likely.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 3rd, away to Sydney in a qualifying final

*Crows need to recover 4.4% to pass Lions, approx. 14 goals

4. HAWTHORN (14-6-2, 117.3%)

To play: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm

Win: Finish 3rd if Brisbane (vs COL) lose OR Hawks win by approx. 7 goals more, if neither finish 4th

Lose: Finish 4th if Melbourne (vs WB), Geelong (vs RIC) and Adelaide (vs GWS) all lose, 5th if one loses, 6th if two lose, 7th if none lose

Analysis: The Hawks will know exactly what’s on the line as they prepare for the final game of the home and away season next Sunday night; but things got a lot more complicated when Dylan Moore failed to make the distance in the draw with Collingwood. They can still drop all the way down into the wildcard – we expect Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide to all win to put the pressure on them – though they’d need to lose to a West Coast side with nothing to play for. Otherwise the Hawks will clinch a top-four spot with victory and percentage will decide where they travel. As it stands they’re seven goals behind third-placed Brisbane (so the Round 22 thumping is VERY costly); that figure should only rise by the opening ball-up. If they can thrash the Eagles, the Hawks can get the more favourable qualifying final against Sydney, otherwise they’ll be back in Perth two weeks later playing Fremantle.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 4th, away to Fremantle in a qualifying final

5. MELBOURNE (15-7, 111.2%)

To play: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Win: Finish 3rd if Brisbane (vs COL) and Hawthorn (vs WC) both lose, 4th if one loses, 5th if neither lose

Lose: Finish 7th if Geelong (vs RIC) and Adelaide (vs GWS) both win, 6th if one wins, 5th if neither win

Analysis: The Demons are remarkably just a win over the Bulldogs, plus a Collingwood upset over Brisbane (or maybe West Coast over Hawthorn), away from the double chance. If the most likely results occur they’ll finish 5th which is still a massive achievement for a club few expected anything from in 2026, but they’re on the brink of something really special. They’re guaranteed one home final at the MCG regardless, it’s just a matter of finding their place in the bracket. Should results go as expected they’d be likely to host one of Collingwood, Carlton or the Bulldogs in their elimination final (it can’t be whoever finishes 7th, likely Adelaide). If the Dees lose, they’d host a wildcard game against the Dogs or Blues.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 5th, ‘host’ TBC (Collingwood, Carlton or Western Bulldogs) in an elimination final

6. GEELONG (14-8, 120.2%)

To play: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:45pm

Win: Finish 3rd if Brisbane (vs COL), Hawthorn (vs WC) and Melbourne (vs WB) all lose, 4th if two lose, 5th if one loses, 6th if none lose

Lose: Finish 7th if Adelaide (vs GWS) wins, 6th if Adelaide loses

Analysis: Fremantle did the job for them by beating Adelaide, propelling the Cats back into the top six after they avoided disaster against North Melbourne. Now Chris Scott’s side is a win over 17th-placed Richmond away from avoiding the wildcard, earning a week off before what’s likely to be a tricky elimination final against those Crows. They will hold some hope of climbing all the way into the top four though it would require two pretty big upsets. Should one upset occur the Cats can sneak up into fifth, earning an elimination final against one of Collingwood, Carlton or the Bulldogs instead.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 6th, host TBC (likely Adelaide) in a wildcard final

7. ADELAIDE CROWS (14-8, 115.1%)

To play: GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm

Win: Finish 3rd if Brisbane* (vs COL), Hawthorn (vs WC), Melbourne (vs WB) and Geelong (vs RIC) all lose, 4th if three lose, 5th if two lose, 6th if one loses, 7th if none lose

Lose: Finish 7th (unless it’s really close and Richmond somehow beats Geelong by 20+ goals, then 6th)

Analysis: There’s no shame in losing away to Fremantle, but it looks likely to send Adelaide into a wildcard game despite them winning 15 games. Even if the Crows beat the Giants, they would need an upset loss above them to sneak back into the top six; they will have a very slim chance of catching Geelong on percentage but we mean very slim. In 7th, the Crows will either host the Bulldogs or the Blues – the latter is probably more likely, but we’re tipping Carlton to upset Fremantle combined with a Dogs loss to Melbourne, which is the scenario that pushes the Blues into 9th. The Crows would follow that wildcard game with a trip to face Geelong (though at the MCG) in an elimination final, with a slim chance they’d face Melbourne instead.

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 7th, host Western Bulldogs in a wildcard final

*Crows need to recover 4.4% to pass Lions, approx. 14 goals

8. COLLINGWOOD (12-8-2, 106.1%)

To play: Brisbane Lions at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

Win: Finish 8th

Lose: Finish 9th if Western Bulldogs (vs MEL) win, otherwise 8th

Analysis: The karmic justice of two Dylan Moore kicks on the siren, one robbing them of two points and the other gifting them two points, sees Collingwood effectively locked into the 8 vs 9 wildcard final. However the chances of a Pies-Blues wildcard game of the AFL’s dreams were reduced by the draw in Dogs-Blues on Sunday. The Pies will play one of those sides – if Carlton beats Fremantle and the Bulldogs lose to Melbourne, it’ll be Pies-Blues. Otherwise it’ll be Pies-Dogs, and it doesn’t really matter who finishes 8th and 9th anyway because the game will be at the MCG regardless. This means Craig McRae is absolutely going to rest players, as the biggest test of Greg Swann’s warning to clubs. They have absolutely no reason to care about Round 24, and every reason to care about winning an actual final seven days later. Plus, if you’re gonna get fined $100,000 or whatever it’d be for resting players… well, you’d happily pay $100,000 for a better chance of winning a final, wouldn’t you?

Fox Footy’s prediction: Lose and finish 8th, ‘host’ Carlton in a wildcard final

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-9-1, 94.1%)

To play: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

Win: Finish 8th if Collingwood (vs BL) loses, otherwise 9th

Lose: Finish 9th if Carlton (vs FRE) loses, otherwise 10th

Analysis: The Bulldogs will know if they’ve got anything to play for when they run out onto the MCG next Saturday. If Carlton can’t beat a Fremantle side that’s got nothing on the line, the Dogs will be playing Collingwood in an MCG wildcard final regardless of their own result – they could finish 8th with victory, but that’s the same as finishing 9th. If the Blues win earlier in the day, then the Dogs will definitely want to upset the Dees, since whoever finishes 10th is probably travelling interstate to face Adelaide for their wildcard game instead. It was a brave result on Sunday but we still have the Dogs slipping and copping the road trip…

Fox Footy’s prediction: Lose and finish 10th, away to Adelaide in a wildcard final

10. CARLTON (11-10-1, 99.6%)

To play: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

Win: Finish 8th if Collingwood (vs BL) lose and fall behind Blues on percentage*, otherwise 9th

Lose: Finish 10th if Western Bulldogs (vs MEL) win, otherwise 9th

Analysis: We can totally understand why they played for the draw in the final minutes against the Bulldogs – it locked them into the finals and that’s what matters most – but it also made it more likely they’ll cop a harder wildcard final. The Blues now need to beat Fremantle, followed by a Bulldogs loss to Melbourne, to sneak into 9th and earn a blockbuster MCG wildcard game against Collingwood. If the Blues lose, or the Dogs win, then instead Josh Fraser’s men will be stuck in the 7-10 wildcard game with a likely trip to Adelaide. We are tipping Carlton to finish 9th – even though realistically Freo should be favoured, and it’s not like they’ll be resting everyone when they’ve got a week off anyway. (If anything, Carlton should be the ones resting players for the wildcard… hmm…)

Fox Footy’s prediction: Win and finish 9th, ‘away’ to Collingwood in a wildcard final

St Kilda and GWS were eliminated by Carlton’s draw against the Western Bulldogs. North Melbourne was eliminated by its loss to Geelong.