The AFL’s inaugural wildcard weekend is upon us, as 10 — yes, 10 — teams prepare to go into battle for the 2026 premiership.
For those at the top, it’s clear that a deep finals run — or lifting the cup on grand final day — will be acceptable. Some have returned to September or broken ground from the wilderness, while others would make their fans proud with just a win.
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Wildcard Final
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In Finals Pressure Gauge, Foxfooty.com.au ranks the team facing the least pressure (10) to the most (1) and gives a September pass mark — and there’s one side which must win it all for their season to be considered a success.
10. CARLTON
Pass mark: They have already passed.
It’d be a cherry on top, but the Blues don’t have to win a final for a ‘pass’. Inexplicably storming home to finish with a 12-1-10 record after a 1-8 start did the trick, we sense.
Carlton might have parted ways with its former coach in-season, but it turned out its coach of the future was right under its nose. And if you asked the fans, they probably wouldn’t have had it any other way.
Because within Josh Fraser’s sensational revamp, the Blues wound up finishing the season fourth in the ‘without the footy’ ranks — eighth for points against, sixth for inside-50s against, and fourth for points from forward half against.
But it’s also in possession where they’ve taken massive strides. The Blues are changing angles at will, deceiving with their kicks, and transitioning with hands in waves.
Such is their rich vein of form — having just knocked over the minor premiers — you wouldn’t be out of place backing them to beat an undermanned Melbourne this weekend.
And with Fraser now permanently ingrained, and with Jagga Smith and Harry Dean propelling the next generation alongside the Blues’ preeminent stars, this is only the start.
All-Australian extended squad confirmed | 00:41
9. COLLINGWOOD
Pass mark: Win on wildcard weekend.
It’s a starkly contrasted finals situation for Collingwood compared to last year, when they sat on top of the ladder for 11 weeks of the season.
This year, the Magpies were 5-1-7 after Round 13, with then-valid questions over their finals viability. But then they ignited their offensive game and have gone 7-1-2 since. Thus, by exceeding expectations in the second half of the season, the Pies don’t seem confronted by a lot of pressure.
And September expectations also have to be adjusted after costly injuries to Scott Pendlebury and Brayden Maynard, with the pair set to miss the Pies’ clash with the Bulldogs. Isaac Quaynor and Pat Lipinski should prove their fitness, while Harry Perryman remains sidelined.
Another reason some pressure is alleviated? The kids are good. Collingwood is finally starting to break free of the ‘too old’ narrative.
Allan, Anderson, Harrison, Swadling, West, Hayes. The fans are starting to see the vision of the future. With Nick Daicos spearheading it, Lachie Neale tipped to join the fray, and Darcy Moore and Jamie Elliott still to return to the side, more years of contention loom.
Still, they have to find a way to beat the Bulldogs this Friday. A gift — playing an ‘away’ final at the MCG against a Marvel tenant — landed in the Pies’ laps, and they have to capitalise.
It won’t be the end of the world if they lose to a resilient Dogs outfit, but it’ll leave a sour taste in the mouths of Craig McRae and company after an optimism-filled second half of the campaign.
Will Pies regret not resting players? | 03:46
8. MELBOURNE
Pass mark: Win on wildcard weekend.
Regardless of what happens from here, Melbourne’s 2026 campaign has been highly impressive. A 15-win season and return to September under Steven King was a long shot in the eyes of most at the start of March, particularly after missing the past two finals series.
That said, in a similar vein to Adelaide’s rapid rise last year, there now is expectation, given just how good their year has been.
They were oh so close to claiming a top six spot that would have made this season an undeniable success, but one more win is probably now needed to tie a bow on it.
It would be remiss not to mention the absences of Jacob van Rooyen (suspension) and Brody Mihocek (neck) for their upcoming clash, which leave two huge holes in attack.
Still, this is a side that has comfortably surpassed all pre-season expectations, but its ultra-attacking style also makes it particularly dangerous in a sudden-death setting.
The Demons have claimed some massive scalps this year, and while bowing out this weekend wouldn’t undo everything they’ve achieved, a seventh-placed finish should bring some reward in September.
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7. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Pass mark: Win on wildcard weekend.
Having been there or thereabouts in the bottom half of the top eight for eight years straight, the Bulldogs have fallen into danger territory — the wildcard round.
That being said, they’ve only played two finals since their 2021 Grand Final loss, both of which brought Elimination Final losses in 2022 and 2024 respectively.
Injuries have played a role in their compromising position heading into September, with their attack ranking 14th in the competition at the end of the home-and-away season.
It puts a shallow ceiling of what can realistically be expected of them from this week onwards, but there’s also no doubt fans will feel shortchanged once more if they can’t strike at least one, if not multiple wins in the post-season.
The nucleus of their side — Marcus Bontempelli, Ed Richards and Bailey Dale — will be critical to any success they have against Collingwood and beyond, but they’ll likely head into Friday night’s blockbuster as underdogs.
McVeigh set for Essendon job over Hird | 05:55
6. SYDNEY SWANS
Pass mark: Get to preliminary final weekend (win a final).
It’s hard to know what to expect from the Swans, who have lost five key players including three genuine stars, this September.
The overwhelming external sentiment is that they should be written off from premiership contention, with no Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Nick Blakey — all of whom ranked inside the top 20 for AFL Rating this year — at Dean Cox’s disposal.
Still, decimated Sydney blitzed the Kangaroos in Round 24, giving rise to some hope it’s still a force to be reckoned with in September.
It still has a wealth of talent deployed all over the ground, headlined by Errol Gulden, Brodie Grundy and now-three-time Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow. Meanwhile, Jesse Dattoli and Billy Cootee are just a couple of the names already stepping up in the absence of the Swans Five.
But the Brisbane Lions are a far tougher proposition than North Melbourne, and if the Swans lose their home qualifier, the pressure will build again before a sudden-death semi-final.
If they can manage to win just one of their two home finals, and give their opposition a run for their money on preliminary final weekend, the Bloods could walk away with their heads held high.
Emotions flare after Swans huge win | 10:09
5. BRISBANE LIONS
Pass mark: Get to the grand final.
In one sense, the Lions are under pressure. They have the opportunity to forge just the seventh all-time VFL/AFL three-peat. And if they don’t, questions will quickly arise doubting the club’s dynasty capabilities.
And it’s not as if they don’t have a favourable path to the big dance; matched up with embattled Sydney in a qualifying final. A fourth consecutive grand final appearance should be the expectation, with a home preliminary final seemingly likelier than not.
But in another sense, they’re under very little pressure compared to every other finalist. They’ve just won two premierships. Through that lens, they’re kicking back, breathing easy.
And even if they don’t hold the cup aloft this year, there’s no reason to believe they won’t come back with a vengeance in future years, such is the wealth of talent on their list.
The scariest part about the Lions is they’ll be brimming with belief, knowing they’ve done it all before and are capable of doing it again. That mental freedom, compared to, say, the Swans, is a huge advantage at this time of year.
4. GEELONG
Pass mark: Get to preliminary final weekend.
Another year; another finals series in which Geelong shapes as a serious contender.
The Cats’ top-four dream was dashed in Round 24, but make no mistake, Chris Scott doesn’t need a double-chance to take this talented side deep.
Arguably the best coaching staff in the competition, armed with a talent-rich squad — that just regained Jeremy Cameron — on a six-match winning tear? They will be expected to go far.
The only question is the midfield. Geelong will hope Max Holmes (ankle) can prove his fitness for its elimination final next week, while James Worpel (hamstring) is also sidelined.
The Cats have done well to elude the curse that has mired recent grand final losers, but elimination in the second or third weeks of finals shouldn’t be considered passable.
And when it comes to Geelong, the only elephant in the room remains its ability to capitalise on deep finals runs with silverware. In the past 10 years, it’s won just one premiership from eight top-four finishes.
It adds a layer of pressure, even if they didn’t earn the double-chance this year.
Zak Butters confirms desire to leave | 02:43
3. HAWTHORN
Pass mark: Get to preliminary final weekend.
After making a shock semi-final appearance in 2024 before a preliminary final loss last season, the expectation is that Sam Mitchell’s Hawks are right up there again this September.
An uncharacteristic 67-point loss to Brisbane in Round 22 is a notable cause for concern so close to finals, but they won’t go over to Perth next Friday night totally without hope — losing to the minor premiers by only 15 points in a close encounter back in early May.
The club has earned itself a double-chance and highest finish on the ladder since 2018, and after a very good run with injury this year, should be as primed as anyone outside of Fremantle from a health standpoint.
If they’re not able to upset the Dockers, a home semi-final against Geelong looms as a real possibility that would define the pass mark for their season.
Their outfit is flooded with star power made for September, with none more eye-catching than Nick Watson, who genuinely looks capable of taking them to the promised land alongside the likes of Jack Gunston and Will Day, among others.
‘Freaky things!’ Mitchell on Wiz mark | 08:50
2. ADELAIDE CROWS
Pass mark: Win a final.
A straight-sets exit as minor premiers last year still stings at West Lakes, so simply winning one final this September is the absolute bare minimum. That said, the club shouldn’t be truly satisfied with anything less than a preliminary final appearance.
Finishing sixth after another strong home-and-away campaign — 15 wins and a stingy second-best defence in the league (bettered only by Fremantle) — means Adelaide again heads into September with genuine expectation.
It’s also the second straight year the Crows have ranked in the top two for points against, and with their injury list in the best shape it’s been all year, there really are no excuses come Saturday week at Adelaide Oval.
Hosting an elimination final on their home turf gives Matthew Nicks’ side a clear pathway to play one of Brisbane or Sydney away from home.
For a group that still possesses more than enough talent in its best 23, anything less than making serious inroads this September will feel like another opportunity missed.
“We’re better than that” | 07:38
1. FREMANTLE
Pass mark: Win the premiership.
It’s been a magical year for the Dockers, whose fans are dreaming of their club winning its historic maiden premiership. And it’s got inside running for the silverware.
Fremantle ranks first for defence — including points against, inside-50s against, and points from turnover against — and is the second-best chain-to-score offence in the competition.
It’s a damaging beast in transition, and a near-impenetrable wall without the footy.
With that overall standing comes tremendous expectation. When you finish a game and a half clear on top of the ladder in a tightly-contested competition, premiership anticipation is high.
And for this year’s version of Fremantle, nothing less than the flag will be acceptable. Justin Longmuir’s men couldn’t win a final last year, but they weren’t nearly as dominant as they’ve been in 2026. They have to capitalise.
Two home finals — at a venue where they’re a staggering 12-0 for the year — pave the way to success. Anything can happen on grand final day, but this is surely their year.
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