AFL 2026, Round 12 Talking Points

In less than a week, James Hird’s homecoming has gone from a dream reserved for the most hardcore Essendon believers to a staggering near-reality.

Plus the new AFL reality putting Carlton in the finals mix, and the woes for Collingwood and St Kilda, as the big issues from Round 12 are analysed in Foxfooty.com.au’s Talking Points!

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COACHES’ HIRD HESITANCY A ‘DEADSET JOKE’… BUT ‘SUPERPOWER’ COULD BE TOO GOOD TO IGNORE

The James Hird groundswell is out of control. Already.

And it’s why Essendon, sooner rather than later, must blatantly and specifically declare its plan and intentions for the process to find its next senior coach.

It’s been less than a week since Brad Scott was sacked as Essendon’s coach and it seems he’s been long forgotten in the Bombers coaching narrative.

The spectre of Hird over the Bombers has lingered for years – even in the weeks and months before Scott’s 2022 appointment – but now it seems more significant than ever.

One of Essendon’s greatest ever players, Hird coached Essendon for nearly four full seasons before his sacking late in 2015 when his Bombers were 5-14. He didn’t coach the club in 2014 as he served a 12-month AFL-imposed ban for his role in the controversial Essendon supplements program.

Hird is now 11 years removed from his Essendon resignation, having since briefly served at the Giants in 2022, and taken up a director of coaching role at Port Melbourne.

He wants back in.

The Bombers legend, as he publicly declared last week, still has a clear passion for his beloved club. He said Essendon “needs people around the place that know how to rebuild that spirit”.

Hird wants to coach the Bombers again and he’s willing to enter that process hinted at last week by club president Andrew Welsh, who said: “We’re not ruling anyone in or anyone out of this.”

This really has all the makings of a rolling soap opera the AFL world won’t be able to take its eyes off.

Other prospective coaching candidates, clearly, feel that way.

Four possible Essendon coaching candidates – two experienced campaigns in Ken Hinkley and Adam Simpson plus two assistants looking for full-time roles in Troy Chaplin (Melbourne) and Brett Montgomery (Giants) – in the past week all publicly expressed varying degrees of scepticism about entering a Bombers process.

“I can’t imagine anyone entering the race for the Essendon coaching job, with James now looking like he’s one out, one back in the pole position with all the things that have gone on in the past. It looks like this is somewhat James Hird’s job,” Hinkley told SEN on Wednesday

Giants assistant Montgomery told ABC Sport: “An opportunity is an opportunity but if it doesn’t feel real or authentic, it makes it hard to enter.”

The attitude of the coaching fraternity left Collingwood legend and ex-Pies coach Tony Shaw ropeable, to say the least.

“What a deadset joke,” Shaw told 3AW Football on Sunday.

“If you want to coach and you want the job, you go in there and you argue everything that you’ve got to make sure you get the job.

“You don’t get caught up in the ‘favourite son’ stuff. You make him look embarrassed by the way that you present to the board.

“Man up you other blokes, get your presentation ready, go in there and sell yourself.”

For what it’s worth, ex-Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley – who’s now an assistant at Geelong – said he wouldn’t be scared off by Hird.

Essendon legend Matthew Lloyd, who spent eight seasons on the same Bombers list as Welsh and played in the 2000 flag with Hird, on Sunday insisted the club’s president “will not just pick James Hird, he will pick the best coach for the footy club”.

“This is not Hirdy’s job at all. He has to fight for it and he has to get an interview first,” Lloyd told The Sunday Footy Show.

Herald Sun chief football writer Jay Clark told Fox Footy on Saturday night Welsh, at this stage, was not “ready to give the keys to the Essendon Football Club back to James Hird”. He added there were “still sections of the board that feel very nervous about Hirdy coming back and coaching – particularly because he hasn’t had a senior AFL coaching role over the past five years”.

Veteran football reporter Caroline Wilson even suggested on 3AW Football on Saturday that Hird simply wouldn’t get the job as the Bombers saw it as “too risky given his lack of experience”.

Yet it feels Hird’s candidacy is impossible for Essendon to ignore.

No matter what key Bombers figures truly think, Fox Footy commentator Gerard Whateley says the Bombers “have to answer the Hird question first” before even thinking about going to the wider coaching market.

“You won’t get the collective and depth of coach you want to run through a process unless the Hird question is answered,” Whateley told Fox Footy.

“If they answer in the affirmative, they need to make it a triumph. An absolute triumph. ‘This is happening, we’re all in on it’ – and do it relatively swiftly … Or they need to sit with him and go ‘it’s not going to be you and we need you to withdraw’ – so that the club is able to move on and actually attract people.

“I don’t envy anybody in this.”

Triple premiership Tiger Jack Riewoldt said Hird’s public stance was “a massive spanner in the works” for the Bombers process, telling Fox Footy: “The Essendon Football Club are, I’m going to use the word, ‘incestual’ – because it’s so much about Essendon people and how you’ve got to become an Essendon person.”

It’s why Riewoldt also believes “the only person who maybe can save them (the Bombers) is James Hird”.

And it’s why dual premiership Kangaroo David King says bringing Hird back would be the right move.

“I’m a James Hird fan, so I’m probably coming from a different slant on this. The Essendon Football Club are a unique organisation – and I can see this happening,” King told Fox Footy.

“At the end of the day, they are going to have to appoint someone to unite this football club and start the climb back up the table, because they haven’t been a happy camp for too long.

“Put a great footy manager above him (Hird), put good support beneath in terms of guys that have been in the system for the last four to five years that are strategically minded – and I don’t think you’d have a problem. But I’m in the minority I think.”

Clark believes the Bombers should at least “hear him (Hird) out”, for he has a “superpower” arguably no Bombers coaching candidate would bring to the table.

“He’s got unfinished business as a coach and he has a superpower: He connects, he’s got great charisma and young people follow him,” Clark said. “If James Hird is the coach of the Essendon Football Club, I reckon Zach Merrett stays – that’s the power of this man

“When he was appointed (as Bombers coach) in 2010, the membership went up 23 per cent – an extraordinary number. He has an unbelievable power and he would unite this football club I think. But it’s whether they’re prepared to take the risk and whether he is the best football coaching candidate for Essendon.

“It’s as fascinating a story I’ve seen in the past 20 years.”

THE WILDCARD REALITY GIVING BLUES SNIFF OF SEPTEMBER

We’ve only just reached June, but Carlton’s three-game winning streak under interim coach Josh Fraser means we’re already feeling the impact of a re-shaped September.

The idea behind the wildcard round was obvious – with 10 teams to qualify for the post-season, and 7th vs 10th and 8th vs 9th in the pre-finals bye week to decide who makes the traditional top eight bracket.

The AFL wants more interest from more fans at the pointy end of the season, after a 2025 campaign where half the league was effectively eliminated with two months left.

Well, we’re about to talk about Carlton having a shot at playing finals. Which means it’s working.

The Blues, mired in misery at 1-8 just three weeks ago, look completely different and have recorded three genuinely impressive wins – over the Bulldogs (a finals contender), the Power (better than their record, and it was on the road) and now Geelong (a proper flag contender).

Last year, if the Blues were trying to make the top eight, they would’ve needed to go on a massive winning run. You often needed 13 wins to make the eight, and last year even 14 wasn’t enough.

But the bar for finals qualification has been lowered. History tells us the average 10th-placed team in the 18-club era won 11.46 games, and the average 11th-placed team won 10.95 games (figures adjusted for the 23-game season).

That means 11 wins will sometimes be enough to make the top 10, especially if you’ve got a good percentage, and 12 wins will be enough most years. (To put some numbers on it: before the season Wheelo Ratings’ simulations gave teams a 59.6% chance of playing finals with 11 wins, and a 92.1% chance with 12 wins.)

So realistically, any team with a path to 11 wins has a shot at playing finals.

And, well… Carlton can definitely get to 11 wins.

Currently sitting 4-8, the Blues will rate their chances in their next four games, against Essendon (MCG), GWS (Engie), West Coast (Marvel) and Richmond (MCG).

They’re likely to drop at least one of those games, since they won’t be at the level we saw against Geelong every week, but let’s say they get on a roll and are sitting 8-8 in about a month’s time.

Their last seven games are tough but not impossible and, most importantly, they don’t leave Melbourne again: Hawthorn (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Gold Coast (Marvel), Brisbane (Marvel), St Kilda (Marvel), Bulldogs (Marvel) and Fremantle (Marvel).

Could they pinch three or four of those – maybe against the Pies, Suns, Saints and Bulldogs?

It’s feasible. It’s possible. It’s not massively likely, either, but the fact there’s even a chance Carlton could play finals after sacking Michael Voss is pretty remarkable.

Interim coaches have taken teams to the finals before – Scott Camporeale took over Adelaide after the tragic death of Phil Walsh in 2015 and led them to an elimination final win, while Alan Joyce temporarily replaced the ill Allan Jeans for the 1988 season and took Hawthorn to a premiership, and then took Footscray to the 1994 finals having replaced Terry Wheeler after just two rounds.

But those are some clearly exceptional circumstances in all cases. Voss-to-Fraser was a much more traditional interim call-up.

The non-traditional part here is the wildcard round; we’re now in an era where a team can, in just three weeks, go from equal-last to two wins out of the finals places.

It means Collingwood can definitely still play finals, even though they’ve lost their close game mojo and are generally agreed to be just-OK. It means St Kilda can certainly still play finals, even though they can’t beat anyone who’s any good. It means North Melbourne can play finals, after five straight bottom-two finishes.

And it means Carlton can play finals. Heck, West Coast is on four wins, too.

They might all miss out in the end, but hope is a powerful thing.

5-7 TO … 5-7: CASH-SPLASHING SAINTS AT STANDSTILL AS ‘STARK’ ISSUE EMERGES

St Kilda was last year’s big spender, splashing cash on Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni and Sam Flanders in addition to forking out millions to keep Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, and also prying over Liam Ryan.

They were mostly celebrated moves, with the club going about adding necessary talent in key positions.

But after the Saints started last season 5-7, the Moorabbin-based club has started the 2026 campaign … 5-7.

That’s not to say that there hasn’t been development and improvement in particular areas, but simply, St Kilda hasn’t been able to beat the best sides.

And their latest defeat came in particularly disenchanting fashion, resigned to their equal-lowest first-half score since 1957 as Hawthorn ran rampant.

The Saints’ wins have come against the Giants, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Carlton and Richmond – all teams below them on the ladder entering the weekend – as a daunting matchup with Sydney awaits next up.

St Kilda entered Round 12 in the bottom-six for points from turnovers, bottom-six for defensive-half scoring, and ranking below AFL average for ball movement success.

“We’ve been standing up interstate against quality, beating teams around us quite well,” coach Ross Lyon remarked post-game.

“But we need to improve, and that sits with me. It doesn’t sit lightly … they (injured players returning) are not the whole solution … we want to play more like the second half, so, for our fans, we let you down, and that starts and stops with me and the team.”

Dual All-Australian and Saints great Leigh Montagna called Thursday night “a step back” for his former club.

“I think this caught them by surprise, tonight (Thursday night),” he said on Fox Footy.

“I think they thought that even if they weren’t going to win, they were going to be competitive – and that was probably the most uncompetitive performance that St Kilda has put out this year.”

Flanders’ ruptured Achilles adds to the Saints’ woes from Thursday – with his reported five-year, $900,000 contract one of those big-money moves – but Lyon will soon regain Ryan and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera in a necessary personnel boost.

Still, there are general concerns over the Saints’ methods on gameday.

On AFL Nation radio on Thursday, West Coast premiership coach Adam Simpson questioned Lyon and St Kilda’s game style.

“What is their DNA? Are they just a team that goes in with strategy to beat (teams) … or is it going to be a baseline? Normally, a Ross Lyon baseline is defence,” he said.

“And 119 points (conceded) … (the Hawks) had 29 scoring shots, so you can’t say defence is high on the priority (list) going into this game.

“Back in the day, it would be just park-the-bus, ‘we’re going to slingshot our way into this game, we’re going to win at all costs’. We’re just not seeing that particular brand just yet.”

And regarding their offence, Brownlow medallist Gerard Healy says the Saints aren’t using their hands enough.

“I watched about 20 circumstances when there was a forward play and a back play, and they took the back play,” he said.

“And in the finish, (St Kilda) had 149 metres gained to (Hawthorn’s) 671 metres gained by hand. It’s just too stark.

“It’s a brand of footy that I think most players don’t want to play. I think most players want to go forward with the ball – that’s what every instinctive 18-year-old kid comes in (with the mindset of) … go forward, go quick …”

Entering the weekend of footy, St Kilda sat second-last in the competition for handball metres gained per game – above only Adelaide.

For context, the Giants, Sydney and Gold Coast, who make up the top-three for ball movement, also sit in the top-four for handball metres gained. There’s a reason it’s popularised around the league.

‘COSTING THEM GAMES’: PIES PROBLEM EXPOSED AS STAR’S ROLE IN SPOTLIGHT

Collingwood are now sitting outside the AFL’s top 10, appear in danger of missing out on the wildcard final.

So where is it going wrong for Craig McRae and his Magpies?

Fox Footy’s Jay Clark, David King and Jack Riewoldt believe Collingwood’s clearance woes need to be addressed, and a big call looms on reigning E.W. Copeland Trophy winner Darcy Cameron.

“They’ve got headaches and they are trying to patch up some problems on the run,” Clark said.

“They are the worst centre clearance team in the competition.

“The spine is an issue.

“The Darcy Cameron conundrum… the new ruck rules have not helped him. He is getting beaten by rival big men with their spring in the centre square. They are unable to score and source the ball from inside there.”

King said it was now “break glass” time at the Pies in a bid to address those ruck woes, with Clark labelling Cameron “a liability inside the centre square”.

“But what do you do with Cameron if he doesn’t play ruck?” King questioned.

“He’s your reigning best and fairest winner – you can’t leave him out of your team.

“I think they have to throw (Dan) McStay in and hope for the best.

“Right now, this is costing them games.”

King said the Pies needed a “jumper” in the ruck – like McStay – to compete with the more mobile rucks of the competition.

The Magpies picked up 26-year-old ruck Harrison Coe – who stands at 204cm – in the Mid-Season Draft, who looms as a potential option.

But Riewoldt says a rookie won’t be the immediate answer.

“They have to come to terms Collingwood that they are not going to be a centre square scoring side,” he said.

“What is the point of having Nick Daicos in there at the moment, or constantly around the ball like that when they are not getting their bang for buck from their best player and arguably the best player in the competition?”

Riewoldt said with Collingwood sitting at 5-1-6 they were “no guarantee” to make it into finals in 2026.

“I can’t see them winning a final,’ he said.

“But I have worries that they may not make the 10.”

Against the Bulldogs on Saturday night, the Pies were dominated in the middle as they coughed up a 15-2 centre bounce hitout stat that led to a 13-3 inside 50 count by three quarter time.

“Darcy Cameron… I’m staggered that he’s going in for the start of this fourth term,” King said during the match call.

“This just is not working … It’s giving the Dogs’ territory.

“Six of their (the Dogs’) 11 goals from forward half work – it’s a big advantage.”

And Clark warned Collingwood needed to address their ruck woes urgently, given they’ll face a Max Gawn-led Melbourne next week.

“They are going to have to come up with a strategy, coach their way to victory if they can because Max Gawn can potentially dominate that game,” Clark said.

“Their second-stringer Max Heath also looks handy as well.”