Run Home, every team’s predicted finish, finals chances, Melbourne Storm, Cronulla Sharks, news, videos, Fox Sports Lab

With six rounds remaining, five teams have been given a chance to take out the minor premiership, according to the Fox Sports Lab.

While Penrith looks to have a stranglehold on top spot, the Sharks are rated the best chance of finishing second after they recorded another big win last weekend.

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The Fox Sports Lab sees Craig Fitzgibbon’s men making a move past the Warriors and Roosters late to lock up a home semi final.

A poor loss to the Titans at home on the weekend has all but locked in the Dragons for the wooden spoon while there’s a four-way battle to avoid running second last.

The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers and based on team ratings, the remaining games have been simulated 100,000 times, with the venues adding a little extra weighting to find out where the teams will finish on the ladder.

1. PENRITH PANTHERS (34 points, +284)

Predicted finish: 1st

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 99.8%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 78%

Remaining games: Raiders (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Tigers (H)

Analysis: Penrith have given themselves a bit of breathing space at the top with the win over Parramatta last week. They still probably have to lose two of their final six to be in danger of losing the minor premiership due to their superior for-and-against. They don’t have the easiest run home given they’re playing teams two and three on the ladder in consecutive weeks, and have the rejuvenated Raiders and Bulldogs in front of them. With only Mitch Kenny out injured, they’re looking healthy but need to snap out of the rough patch they’re currently in. It looks like they’re just trying to wrap up the minor premiership with no-frills footy before they unleash in the finals.

2. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (32 points, +85)

Predicted finish: 3rd

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 87.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 10.2%

Remaining games: Cowboys, (A), Bulldogs (H), Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Analysis: Last week’s win was their fifth-straight and catapulted them past the Warriors and into minor premiership contention. They likely need to win against the Cowboys this week to retain second spot on the ladder because the Warriors play the Titans at home. They still have to play their bogey team Penrith on the run home, but they’re in the right form to defeat the ladder leaders for just the second time since 2019. Only the Tigers game looks like a guaranteed two points for them in a tricky run home.

3. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (30 points, +190)

Predicted finish: 4th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.9%

Chance of finishing top four: 83%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 4.1%

Remaining games: Titans (A), Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Rabbitohs (A), Knights (H), Sea Eagles (H)

Analysis: They’ve lost four of their past seven games and had a struggling win over the Dragons a fortnight ago at home so there’s huge question marks over the Warriors’ title credentials. The Fox Sports Lab now only gives them a 4.1 per cent chance of taking out the minor premiership. They need to make a statement this week at home against the Titans, who aren’t going too badly for a 13th-placed team. If they can win this week and upset Penrith the following week they should lock up a top four spot given they don’t play in-form teams to end the season.

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4. CRONULLA SHARKS (30 points, +161)

Predicted finish: 2nd

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 93.6%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 7.6%

Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Dragons (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A), Eels (A), Storm (H)

Analysis: According to the Fox Sports Lab they have the easiest draw for the run home and are coming off an impressive win over Manly. There’s no reason why they can’t win their remaining six matches and put the pressure on the three teams above them on the ladder. It’s why the Fox Sports Lab has them finishing second. They’ve only lost once in their past nine encounters and are injury-free, so there’s no excuse for the Sharks. The Raiders and Titans might be tricky games, but this team should run top three.

5. DOLPHINS (28 points, +84)

Predicted finish: 5th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 98.8%

Chance of finishing top four: 28.9%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%

Remaining games: Dragons (A), Broncos (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H), Roosters (A), Titans (A)

Analysis: The Dolphins are rated by the Fox Sports Lab as a 28.9 per cent chance of finishing in the top four. Jack Bostock returns this week from concussion while halfback Isaiya Katoa will be back next week which is desperately needed if they’re to contend for a title. They should knock off the Dragons this week but after that it’s not going to be easy for them with a derby game and the Roosters and Titans away to end the regular season.

6. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (26 points, +78)

Predicted finish: 6th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 84.7%

Chance of finishing top four: 5.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Sharks (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A), Warriors (H), Titans (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: With Newcastle slipping up last week, the Rabbitohs have now moved into sixth on the ladder but do face tough games on the run home starting off with the in-form Sharks this weekend. That game, and matches against the Warriors and Roosters and rejuvenated Bulldogs and Titans, present a very tough run home for a side that is injury-depleted. They may have moved up a spot on the ladder last weekend, but there’s a good chance they drop down a few spots with the Cowboys and Bulldogs coming home hard.

7. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (26 points, +36)

Predicted finish: 8th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 70.9%

Chance of finishing top four: 1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Broncos (A), Raiders (A), Titans (H), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), BYE

Analysis: They’ve lost three-straight now and will be without $13 million man Dylan Brown and State of Origin forward Dylan Lucas who both suffered season-ending injuries in the loss to the Roosters. They were looking like top four contenders a month ago but that’s over now as they just try to finish in the eight, which the Fox Sports Lab says is a 70.9 per cent chance. They need to win two of their final five games, before the bye in the last round, to play finals footy this season. It will be interesting to see how the Broncos play against them this week given they’re now out of finals contention. The Knights are not going to start favourite in many games from now on so they face an uphill battle.

8. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (24 points, -36)

Predicted finish: 7th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 77.6%

Chance of finishing top four: 1.2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Roosters (H), Titans (A), Eels (A), Tigers (H), Raiders (H)

Analysis: They have one of the easiest runs home according to the Fox Sports Lab, which has even given them a 1.2 per cent chance of making the top four. They only play one team above them on the ladder (Roosters), so there are no excuses for Todd Payten’s men who also only travel away two more times until the finals. They’ll be sweating on Tom Dearden’s return from injury. If they can beat the Roosters this week they should be able to go on to finish in the finals given their easy run home.

9. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (24 points, -58)

Predicted finish: 9th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 37.4%

Chance of finishing top four: 0.2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Storm (A), Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (H), Dragons (A), Panthers (A), Broncos (H)

Analysis: The Bulldogs are storming home with six wins from their past eight after a five-match losing streak. If they win this week against a struggling Melbourne, and the Roosters knock off the Cowboys, they will find themselves back in the top eight. They still have the Roosters and Panthers to play however which is why the Fox Sports Lab rates their top eight hopes at just 37.4 per cent.

10. MANLY SEA EAGLES (22 points, +90)

Predicted finish: 10th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 19.4%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: BYE, Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Dragons (H), Warriors (A)

Analysis: The wheels have fallen off at Manly, who lost their fourth-straight game when embarrassed by the Sharks 48-12 at home on Old Boys Day. They need Tom Trbojevic back but that might not be enough. The bye this week has come at the perfect time and they will be sweating on Bulldogs and Cowboys defeats to stay in touch with the top eight. Away fixtures against the Storm and Knights are winnable but they don’t want the Warriors away in the final round to be a must-win game. They need to win four of their final five after the bye to sneak into the finals.

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11. CANBERRA RAIDERS (22 points, -35)

Predicted finish: 11th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 8.2%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Panthers (A), Knights (H), Sharks (A), Broncos (H), BYE, Cowboys (A)

Analysis: Four-straight wins have got last year’s minor premiers back into finals contention but they face Penrith this week. If they lose, they’ll have to win all of their remaining games to qualify for the finals which will likely prove too tough given they still have to play the Sharks and Cowboys away. Doing it without Origin forward Hudson Young just makes the task ahead even harder.

12. MELBOURNE STORM (20 points, -12)

Predicted finish: 12th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 2.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), Sea Eagles (H), BYE, Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Sharks (A)

Analysis: Outside the year they lost all their points for the salary cap scandal, Melbourne hasn’t missed the eight since Craig Bellamy was appointed coach in 2003. The loss against Souths last week means they need to win all five remaining games to make the finals and without Cameron Munster and Harry Grant for the next few weeks, that looks near-impossible but they’re only rated a 2.1 per cent chance of doing it. Add a tough draw with games against Penrith and Cronulla and Bellamy’s side could be creating unwanted history in 2026.

13. GOLD COAST TITANS (18 points, -86)

Predicted finish: 13th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.6%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Warriors (H), Cowboys (H), Knights (A), Sharks (H), Rabbitohs (H), Dolphins (H)

Analysis: Many would have laughed when the Fox Sports Lab gave the then 16th-placed Titans a 0.3 per cent chance of making the finals while the likes of Wests and Parramatta, who were above them on the ladder, were given a 0 per cent chance. But back-to-back wins have seen them jump three spots on the ladder and they’re now a 0.6 per cent chance of making the eight. At best, they can only finish on 30 points so they’ll need teams like the Cowboys, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs and Knights to lose a stack of games between them on the run home. Their season will be officially over if they lose to the Warriors this weekend.

14. BRISBANE BRONCOS (18 points, -132)

Predicted finish: 14th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.3%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Knights (H), Dolphins (A), Warriors (H), Raiders (A), Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)

Analysis: The defending premiers were given a 1.8 per cent chance of making the finals before last weekend’s loss to the Cowboys. The Fox Sports Lab now rates them at just 0.3 per cent to make the finals. They’re gone and they know it. Unbelievably, they’re in a four-way battle for a second-last finish.

15. PARRAMATTA EELS (18 points, -182)

Predicted finish: 15th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Tigers (A), Rabbitohs (A), Cowboys (H), Dolphins (A), Sharks (H), Dragons (A)

Analysis: Cross-town rivals Penrith put the final nail in their finals coffin last week and coach Jason Ryles obviously can’t wait to see how good his team can be when fully fit. The Fox Sports Lab is giving them a 0.1 per cent chance of making the finals. Six wins to finish off gets them to 30 points, but they’ve only won back-to-back games once in 2026.

16. WESTS TIGERS (18 points, -208)

Predicted finish: 16th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Eels (H), BYE, Dragons (H), Roosters (A), Cowboys (A), Panthers (A)

Analysis: The season can’t end soon enough for a club that has suffered blow after blow since Jarome Luai announced he was leaving in April. On and off the field, the club is a mess and don’t expect the likes of the Roosters, Cowboys and Panthers to show them any mercy in the next six weeks. Last week’s 46-point loss to the Raiders made them the worst defensive side in the competition.

17. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (10 points, -267)

Predicted finish: 17th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Dolphins (H), Sharks (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (H), Sea Eagles (A), Eels (H)

Analysis: They’ve had their Mad Monday plans booked for a long time. It’s been argued by most that they’ve improved under Dean Young but where’s that evidence? Their defence is slightly worse than it was under Shane Flanagan and it will be tested this week against the Dolphins. They’re eight points behind the Tigers, who have a bye to come, so the wooden spoon looks theirs and the Fox Sports Lab thinks so, rating them as a 96.3 per cent chance of running last.