AFL 2026, The Blowtorch Round 21

Thursday night’s top-six deciding blockbuster could all come down to one crucial match-up.

But even if one of the game’s most underpaid players stops Nick Daicos, it won’t stop him from claiming a Brownlow Medal which may already be in his possession.

Plus, more of the biggest talking points ahead of Round 21, as well as the Fox Footy commentary roster for every game, in Foxfooty.com.au’s ultimate weekly preview: The Blowtorch!

Watch every match of every round of the AFL Premiership Season LIVE and ad-break free during play on FOX FOOTY, available on Kayo Sports | New to Kayo? Join now and get your first month for just $1.

CATS’ UNSUNG ‘$800K’ MAN SET FOR FOOTY’S HARDEST JOB

When Oisin Mullin proposed to Chris Scott that he be allowed a quick trip home to Ireland to feature in County Mayo’s historic All-Ireland title over the weekend, the Geelong coach was quick to shut him down.

Why? As Scott himself revealed on AFL 360 on Monday night, the league’s most feared tagger, fresh of stellar nullifying jobs on St Kilda’s Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Melbourne’s Kysaiah Pickett, would be needed on Thursday night for the toughest task of all.

Scott confirmed Mullin would head straight to Nick Daicos against Collingwood, looking for a repeat of the job he did on the Brownlow Medal favourite in the Cats’ 54-point Round 9 win over the Pies.

Speaking on On the Couch, Magpies legend turned Cats assistant coach Nathan Buckley delved further into the incoming match-up, saying Mullin would be receiving plenty of help.

“There’s very few players that have the athletic ability to go (with Daicos), let alone the smarts,” Buckley said.

“It takes more than just the tagger to get the job done. The team need to support in some shape or form.

“You need to be winning enough ball to prevent the bloke that you’re trying to tag from having access to the ball as often.

“It is a bit of a team ideal, but something that Osh is more than capable of.”

While Daicos managed 28 disposals against Mullin earlier in the season, his impact was undoubtedly quelled, ranked the 30th-best player on the ground.

The Irishman’s recent run-with roles, having clamped Wanganeen-Milera (21 disposals), Pickett (14) and even Bulldogs champion Marcus Bontempelli (14 disposals), prompted former Richmond legend Jack Riewoldt to put a shock value on the 26-year-old.

“I’d say 800 (thousand),” Riewoldt said when asked by Jordan Lewis to determine what Mullin would be worth on the open market.

“He’s the only one that’s been able to do it (tag Daicos).

“I reckon that’s probably around the mark. It’s not a sexy thing, but it’s certainly helped Geelong win games of footy.”

Mullin’s development as a tagger has been crucial to the Cats’ success across 2025 and 2026, and looms as being central to their premiership chances, most likely from outside the top four.

For Buckley, it’s a strategy more clubs should be implementing, with few choosing to employ a direct tag out of fear of unbalancing their midfield structure.

“Every club should have developed someone that they feel that they can be a clamp,” Buckley said.

“It’s easier said than done, but if you’re coaching any one of the 18 teams, you want a player that you know can put the slows on an opposition.”

Mullin, into his fourth season at the Cats, signed a two-year contract midway through last year tying him to Geelong until the end of 2027.

HAS NICK DAICOS ALREADY CLINCHED THE BROWNLOW MEDAL?

Nick Daicos is the greatest poller in Brownlow history, and he’s only going to extend that title in a couple of months’ time.

With 109 votes in his first 88 home and away games, Daicos entered an exclusive club to reach 100 votes within 100 games of their senior debut – joining three men (Haydn Bunton Sr., Dick Reynolds and Nat Fyfe) who won a combined eight Brownlows.

Daicos, of course, has not won one yet.

Yet.

He may have already claimed the 2026 honour, now listed as short as $1.15 with bookmakers to win the Brownlow. That is an implied probability of 87%.

There’s a genuine chance Daicos has already clinched the medal with four games left, and the unthinkable ceiling of 50 votes is within reach.

Consider last year, when Daicos was projected to poll 32 votes by the Wheelo Ratings system and ended up reaching 35; the winner, Matt Rowell, won with 39 votes having been projected at around 25.

Right now the same system is projecting Daicos to have already polled 39.5 votes; that’s the average from a range of outcomes, which peak at around 45 votes. So if Daicos gets a bit more love from the umpires than expected (which doesn’t sound crazy to us!), and overperforms his current projection, he may be just two more best-on-grounds away from polling 50.

And it’s not like the Wheelo system loves Daicos more than everyone else does. AFL Media’s predictor has Daicos on 40 votes, giving him 24 in his past nine matches alone; ESPN’s slightly more conservative predictor has him at 36 votes.

Keep in mind that Daicos averages 1.24 Brownlow votes per game for his career – only Bunton, the 1930s Fitzroy great, is also above 1 vote per game. If Daicos is on 40 votes right now, he’s averaging 2.22 votes per game. This is absurd.

Reckon the Brownlow is too midfielder-focused? Well, the coaches’ votes love Daicos too; sitting on 125 votes, he has already broken Dustin Martin’s record of 122 from his epic 2017 season. Remember, this is all with four games left.

Marcus Bontempelli, on 106 votes, is on pace to challenge Martin’s record too. Yet he’s also the only player who can mathematically catch Daicos in the coaches’ award.

That, in itself, might be a preview of Brownlow night.

Effectively, for Daicos to NOT win the Brownlow from here, he’d need to have a shocking month (perhaps with Collingwood losing all four games), and for a challenger like Bontempelli or Bailey Smith to have an absolutely electric month, AND for said challenger to then seriously overperform his projections.

If Daicos is on 40 votes right now, a challenger would need to be on 28 votes (an incredible average of 1.55 votes per game) just to have a mathematical chance of tying him for the 2026 medal.

Realistically, it would be surprising if Daicos does not break Patrick Cripps’ record of 45 votes.

And it would be completely bonkers if he doesn’t win.

‘RECRUIT OF THE YEAR’ BOLTER, RULE CHANGE MAKING LIONS UNSTOPPABLE?

Reigning premiers Brisbane are surging towards the top four and a genuine crack at a third straight flag.

And an off-season rule change may be the key to their latest run of success.

The Lions are unbeaten since May, with a 59-point triumph over Port Adelaide at the Gabba set up by their trademarks: scintillating ball movement and accurate kicking through the centre of the ground.

“Because they’ve got such talent, they back themselves in to win those 50/50 balls,” former North Melbourne great David King said on First Crack.

“They trust their forwards to break tackles and get it on the scoreboard.

“The amount of ball that went through the corridor was just ridiculous and terrific at the same time.

“It’s hard to not fall in love with the way they play.”

According to King, the off-season tightening up of the stand rule, a move that has sparked debate around the footy world, has made the Lions nigh on impossible to stop.

Chris Fagan’s men booted a whopping seven goals from nine second-half inside 50s via the corridor against the Power.

“I think they’ve worked out the stand rule as good as anyone,” he said.

“If (Dayne) Zorko can hit some of those kicks through the corridor, it’s game over.

“That’s the challenge that is the Brisbane Lions. How do you stop it?

“Well, you hear Alastair Clarkson say you can’t stop the stand rule, you can’t get around it.

“Maybe this is advantaging Brisbane late in the season. We didn’t think so at the mid-year point.”

The Lions’ form has also aligned with former Essendon ruckman Sam Draper’s emergence as one of the season’s best buys.

Since heading north as a free agent, the 27-year old has missed just one game – the Lions’ Opening Round loss to the Western Bulldogs.

While his numbers are relatively modest, averaging 10.33 disposals and 21 hitouts a match, the one-time Bomber has the ability to do the extraordinary – including a long-range goal on the run against the Power.

King wondered whether Draper’s form has him in the “recruit of the year” conversation, with co-host Jay Clark adding that he “has to be an option” alongside the likes of Clayton Oliver (GWS), Corey Durdin (Port Adelaide) and the more highly touted Charlie Curnow (Sydney).

“I don’t know who’s in front of him. He just has a knack of doing stuff that ruckmen can’t and shouldn’t do,” King continued.

“Kicking a goal from the centre square — that was never part of the recruiting portfolio.

“See if you can find me a ruckman who can kick goals from the centre square!

“It’s not like the game was in the balance or anything, they were downhill skiing at this stage, but what an asset to have.”

“He’s become the player that Essendon always thought he would,” Clark added.

Sitting fourth on the ladder, just two points behind the third-placed Hawthorn, the Lions’ clash with the Hawks in Round 22 looks set to decide the make-up of the top four – provided they first get past Carlton on Saturday night.

CATS’ MAX-STOPPING TACTIC ‘DODOS’ MUST COPY

Geelong’s 20-point win over Melbourne at the MCG looks set to prove crucial amid a logjam for top-six spots.

The ninth-placed Cats now sit just a win behind the sixth-placed Demons, and with Essendon, North Melbourne and Richmond in their run home, are well placed to rise above the dreaded wildcard finals zone.

According to David King on First Crack, the win was built around the Cats’ ability to reduce the influence of Dees captain Max Gawn.

Ruck pair Mark Blicavs and Mitch Edwards were able to drag Gawn to the goalsquare on multiple occasions, freeing up space for Shannon Neale, Ollie Henry and an array of smalls to capitalise against an undermanned Demons defence.

“They had a tactic ready, didn’t they? Of course they did, because it’s Chris Scott and co.,” King said.

“So they dragged Max deep as often as they could.

“Get him out of the drop zone, take him to a position that he absolutely has to stay rusted one-on-one.

“It’s a huge win for Blicavs, and the Cats’ forwards are able to go to work against a Demon backline that’s missing a couple of players.”

When the Cats’ talls weren’t able to drag Gawn away, the smalls were able to regularly impede his run at the ball, a tactic that left the eight-time All-Australian visibly frustrated.

Remarkably, Gawn finished without a single intercept mark, or even an intercept possession, for the evening.

“Look at what the smalls did, they got in and checked his run,” King said.

“(Shaun) Mannagh did it multiple times. (Gryan) Miers did it multiple times.

“It’s just enough to disrupt and allow the rest to have a clearer (run).

“They did it all night, and when he was there, everyone goes. It’s not a one-man responsibility: we’re all doing this.”

With the Demons facing likely fellow finalists Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs in the run to September, plus Gold Coast at People First Stadium on Sunday, King believes copying the Cats’ Gawn plans is what everyone should be doing.

“Teams have got to start working out why is it smart enough for Geelong to do it and we don’t,” he said.

“The dodos who are not planning to beat Max, you’re going to get your whack.

“This is the template. Everyone’s got a player that can take Max to the goalsquare. He has to go there. You’ve got to be smart.

“There’s a reason why we keep talking about the Geelong coaching staff like we do.”

AFL ROUND 21 FIXTURE AND FOX FOOTY COMMENTATORS (all times AEST)

COLLINGWOOD v GEELONG

Thursday July 30, 7:30pm at the MCG

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 6:30pm on Channel 504, hosted by Sarah Jones, Jason Dunstall and Leigh Montagna, with commentary from Matt Hill, Mark Howard, Jack Riewoldt, Brad Johnson and Eddie Betts, plus David Zita in the newsroom

FREMANTLE v WESTERN BULLDOGS

Friday July 31, 8:10pm at Optus Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 7pm on Channel 504, hosted by Garry Lyon, Jonathan Brown and Tom Hawkins, with commentary from Anthony Hudson, Gerard Whateley, Jordan Lewis, Jason Dunstall, Kath Loughnan and Will Schofield, plus David Zita in the newsroom

ST KILDA v SYDNEY SWANS

Saturday August 1, 1:05pm at Marvel Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 12:30pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Leigh Montagna, Jason Dunstall, Michael Voss & Sarah Jones

HAWTHORN v NORTH MELBOURNE

Saturday August 1, 1:35pm at UTAS Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 1:30pm on Channel 503, with commentary from Dwayne Russell, Brad Johnson, Ken Hinkley & Cameron Mooney

PORT ADELAIDE v GWS GIANTS

Saturday August 1, 6:35pm at Adelaide Oval

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 6:30pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Adam Papalia, Mark Ricciuto, Shaun Burgoyne & Ben Dixon

CARLTON v BRISBANE LIONS

Saturday August 1, 7:40pm at Marvel Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 7:30pm on Channel 503 (and from 9:30pm on Channel 504), with commentary from Anthony Hudson, David King, Jack Riewoldt, Kath Loughnan & Jay Clark

RICHMOND v WEST COAST EAGLES

Sunday August 2, 1:10pm at the MCG

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 12:30pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Corbin Middlemas, Ben Dixon, Cameron Mooney, Ruby Schleicher & David Zita

GOLD COAST SUNS v MELBOURNE

Sunday August 2, 3:15pm at People First Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 3pm on Channel 503, with commentary from Dwayne Russell, Garry Lyon, Jonathan Brown, Alastair Lynch & David Zita

ESSENDON v ADELAIDE CROWS

Sunday August 2, 4:40pm at Marvel Stadium

How to watch on Fox Footy: From 4pm on Channel 504, with commentary from Anthony Hudson, Mark Howard, Brad Johnson, Gerard Healy, Nick Dal Santo & David Zita