AFL 2026, Power Rankings after Round 23

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

With one week until the AFL’s first wildcard round, a coach’s future remains up in the air. And the first two-draw weekend in 49 years means a game that seemed big at the time is even bigger in retrospect.

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See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 23 below!

How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

All times AEST.

1. FREMANTLE (19-3, 142.5%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, def Adelaide by 24 points

With top spot locked, and Brisbane less likely to be their qualifying final opponent, things are looking pretty fantastic for Fremantle. Their clash against the Blues might be the toughest tip of the round – and that’s gonna matter with most comps (including Fox Footy’s) to be decided in Round 24. We’re intrigued by how the Dockers handle it; how much do they care about keeping continuity, and keeping players active, as compared to saving their weary bodies the additional, pointless trip to Melbourne. Logically with the way non-Victorian clubs talk about travel, they should be taking any opportunity to avoid it. (Don’t get us wrong, it matters, but having more games with home ground advantage matters too.)

This week: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

2. BRISBANE LIONS (15-7, 119.5%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, def Gold Coast by 42 points

The massive win over Hawthorn a couple of weeks ago felt important at the time, but it’s even better now. Saturday night’s draw means the Hawks’ percentage is relevant again, and the Lions would basically have no shot of finishing third if they hadn’t won by 11 goals. Head-to-head percentage is vital in these scenarios; just ask Melbourne, who led Hawthorn by 96 points a couple of months ago but only ended up winning by 35, and it’s probably gonna cost them a top-four spot. The Magpies have basically nothing to play for – they should absolutely be resting as many players as realistically possible – and the Lions want to run up the score. When you simplify percentage like this it gets a bit messy; but roughly speaking, Brisbane currently leads Hawthorn by 7 goals. That’s a handy headstart and the prize of finishing 3rd (playing Sydney instead of Fremantle) is large.

This week: Collingwood at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

3. GEELONG (14-8, 120.2%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, def North Melbourne by 15 points

Things looked horrific early on Saturday, but the Cats remembered that they always beat the Kangaroos, and effectively clinched a top-six spot in the process. We wonder where the Tigers clash will sit in the annals of ‘Kardinia Park Final Round Belting’ history – joining such highlights as Geelong 168 West Coast 75 (2024), Geelong 131 West Coast 46 (2022), Geelong 155 Melbourne 44 (2016), and our personal favourite, the two-pack to end 2018 featuring Geelong 158 Fremantle 25 and Geelong 142 Gold Coast 40. The finals bracket is likely to have Geelong lined up for a prelim in Fremantle, which wouldn’t be ideal… but if you’re thinking of ways Freo loses a prelim, ‘stage fright against a very experienced team’ would be one of them. So who knows?

This week: Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:45pm

4. HAWTHORN (14-6-2, 117.3%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, drew with Collingwood

Their finals fate is still in their hands, to some degree, but they’re almost certainly going to have to thrash West Coast by 10-plus goals to get back into third on the ladder. That assumes Brisbane beats Collingwood on Friday night – the Magpies have nothing to play for, and a game to rest for – and every goal the Lions win by adds to the margin the Hawks will need. Even if they can’t overcome the percentage gap, at least they’ll get the double chance with a win by pretty much any margin; that comeback against Melbourne, when they were down by 96 points and lost by 35, is the difference between the Hawks being 4th and 5th right now.

This week: West Coast at Optus Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm

5. SYDNEY SWANS (17-5, 134.5%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, def Essendon by 36 points

We would prefer to not talk about Sydney in a football context right now.

This week: North Melbourne at the SCG, Sunday 3:20pm

6. MELBOURNE (15-7, 111.2%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def Port Adelaide by 76 points

The Demons would love to make the top four, don’t get us wrong. But the finals bracket is falling nicely for them. If results go as expected and the ladder remains as-is, Steven King’s men would be in line for a semi-final against Hawthorn at the MCG. Is there an opponent they’d like to face MORE in the finals than the Hawks, given how the two games this year have gone?! We always tweet a full finals bracket prediction on the last day of the season, once we know all the match-ups… and we are strongly considering tipping Melbourne for a prelim final berth. (Just get past the Bulldogs first, lads, because you wouldn’t want to ruin your season by being forced into the wildcard round.)

This week: Western Bulldogs at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

7. ADELAIDE CROWS (14-8, 115.1%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Fremantle by 24 points

Unless there’s a pretty big upset above them, the Crows will be the first true victim of the wildcard round, forced to play an extra final despite being closer to the top six than the bottom few finalists. If they lose a wildcard game to either Carlton or the Bulldogs, could Matthew Nicks find himself in some strife? Coming into this season it felt like Nicks needed to win at least one final to earn himself some job security. (And, to be clear, wildcard games ARE finals.) In a sense the wildcard helps him; the Crows are more likely to win the 7th vs 10th game than they would be to win 6th vs 7th. But after extending his contract by a year in December 2025, ensuring he wouldn’t go into 2026 as a lame duck, it would be hard to do the same if whoever finishes 10th ends Adelaide’s season. So at a minimum, he’d be on a burning-hot seat entering 2027.

This week: GWS at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm

8. COLLINGWOOD (12-8-2, 106.1%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, drew with Hawthorn

There is an argument the Magpies should name a full-strength side on Friday night, to try and upset Brisbane, and keep the momentum from Saturday night’s brave performance against the Hawks going. We do not agree with this argument. (Particularly the momentum part.) The Magpies should absolutely rest as many players as possible in Round 24 – they have every right to care more about the wildcard final than a game where winning gets them nothing tangible. Their wildcard game will be at the MCG regardless of Friday night’s result. And there’s an intriguing path through the finals if the bracket falls as we’re expecting – potentially three straight MCG games (wildcard vs Dogs/Blues, elimination vs Demons, semi vs Hawks). There’s absolutely a world where they make a prelim and they have to prepare for that world.

This week: Brisbane at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

9. CARLTON (11-10-1, 99.6%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, drew with Western Bulldogs

We completely understand that people want to criticise the wildcard round – we disliked it at first, too. The name is part of the problem; it describes something completely different than what the AFL actually means. We actually just have a top 10 now, and expanding the finals to allow stories like Carlton’s to unfold is a net positive for the game. Of course the Blues aren’t going to win the flag, but we reckon their fans will come out of 2026 feeling fondly about the season, and the wildcard enabled that. That’s the point of it. (And the extra money for the two extra finals games, obviously.) And if you’re complaining about Round 24 being a dud because of the wildcard, you’re being blinded by the outcome. Just look at the insanity of the last VFL round to see what a top 10 can produce – Coburg missing out on finals by 0.4% (effectively one goal), GWS going into their last game able to either make the top four or miss the 10 entirely (the latter happened), Carlton starting the final day 13th and finishing 9th… wherever you draw the cut line for the finals, you cannot avoid dead rubbers. There will be awesome endings to seasons with a top 10, and there will be dud endings to seasons with a top 10. This is closer to the latter but still brought enough that we’re happy with the wildcard overall.

This week: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:15pm

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS (12-9-1, 94.1%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, drew with Carlton

Amid all the talk about the last few minutes of Sunday’s thriller, and the Blues qualifying for the finals, it was easy to overlook that the Bulldogs played one of their best games of the season? Certainly one of their best since the 4-0 start. Missing four of their most important players, pretty much everyone stood up. The defence made the opposition look like Voss-era Carlton – constantly bombing it forward to nobody except a Bulldogs defender – and Ed Richards has rarely been better (maybe the Brisbane game in Opening Round?). If they keep playing like this, they can actually win a final or two. The fact they’re now likely to avoid a trip to Adelaide, and could instead stay in Melbourne until a potential preliminary final (wildcard vs Pies, elim final vs Dees, semi final vs Hawks), doesn’t hurt.

This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm

11. ST KILDA (10-12, 104.2%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, def Richmond by 49 points

This week: Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

12. GWS GIANTS (10-12, 101.8%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, def West Coast by 54 points

This week: Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 8:10pm

Both of these teams would’ve been sitting there on Sunday afternoon, following the Blues-Dogs draw (obviously watching Fox Footy) and getting frustrated when Carlton started chipping it around in the last few minutes. Unfortunately in this new wildcard era, where 10 teams play the finals and the bottom five teams are eligible for a compensation pick if their first-round selection slides due to a matched bid, there are very few ladder positions that are ‘no man’s land’… that’s where both the Saints and Giants reside. In one respect the Saints would be more disappointed about missing the finals because they weren’t far off (beat Carlton and they almost certainly get there); in another the Giants would be more disappointed because their upside was clearly higher, they were just never able to reach it due to all their injuries. Ironically, GWS might’ve played finals if they hadn’t lost twice… to St Kilda.

13. NORTH MELBOURNE (9-13, 90.7%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, lost to Geelong by 15 points

Even if they lose to the Swans on Sunday – there’s a bit to play out there – the Kangaroos should go into the off-season feeling relatively comfortable with how this season has ended. They’ve lost six of their last seven games but they’ve been very competitive against two genuine contenders over the last few weeks, and beaten a finalist in the Bulldogs. If they can finish with a percentage in the 90s, that’s a pretty fantastic sign of improvement. (After all, Kangaroos fans love the 90s.)

This week: Sydney at the SCG, Sunday 3:20pm

14. GOLD COAST SUNS (8-14, 93.2%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Brisbane by 42 points

For the second straight year the Suns will end the season in strange circumstances. Last season it was playing twice, to make up for the cyclone-delayed game against Essendon, and this year they get some rare Thursday night primetime exposure for… a game that doesn’t matter in the slightest? Anyway, we’re already preparing to tip the Suns as next year’s collapse-but-bounce-back team, like the 2024-25 Swans, 2023-24 Cats or 2022-23 Power. So get to work, Dimma!

This week: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Thursday 7:30pm

15. PORT ADELAIDE (6-16, 87%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to Melbourne by 76 points

This week: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 12:20pm

16. WEST COAST EAGLES (4-18, 70.5%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to GWS by 54 points

This week: Hawthorn at Optus Stadium, Sunday 7:20pm

17. RICHMOND (3-19, 62.8%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to St Kilda by 49 points

This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:45pm

18. ESSENDON (2-20, 63.5%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Sydney by 36 points

This week: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 12:20pm

The Eagles and Tigers look likely to cop final-round beltings – you always get a couple of them in Round 24 – so the wooden spoon comes down to Power vs Bombers on Sunday afternoon. We would argue both teams want Essendon to win; Essendon so that they can avoid the wooden spoon, and Port Adelaide so that Richmond can get the wooden spoon (and Pick 1). Even if Zak Butters isn’t going to request a trade to the Tigers, the added leverage can only help the Power get the best deal possible for his looming departure.