Talking Points, Round 18 preview, opinion, analysis, why Michael Maguire is kidding himself, Broncos problems, Joey Walsh era begins at Manly, news, reaction

Stop the mind games Madge. That’s the opinion of one pundit who believes Michael Maguire is kidding himself if he thinks the Broncos will make the finals.

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Meanwhile, a premiership winning halfback believes there will be some growing pains for a young Manly playmaker, who has been tasked to fill the boots of the injured Luke Brooks for the rest of the season.

PENRITH’S DELICATE BALANCING ACT WITH YOUNG HALF

Penrith Panthers vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs, Friday 8pm @ CommBank Stadium

The Penrith Panthers are still premiership favourites, there is no questioning that.

Even after back-to-back losses to the Titans and Cowboys, this feels like the usual blip on the radar around Origin time before they come back full-strength near the end of the season and time their run to perfect all the way to another premiership.

If there is one question mark over Penrith’s title credentials though, it centres around five-eighth Blaize Talagi.

After all, as much as the Panthers could have come from the clouds to win an unlikely premiership last year, they didn’t. They lost to the Broncos and while that defeat was not solely on Talagi, it was a game where you felt the difference at five-eighth.

When it was Jarome Luai or even Jack Cogger filling in to free up Nathan Cleary, there was always a confidence — externally not internally — that both halves could contribute.

Right now, that isn’t always the case with Penrith, and that’s totally fine. Talagi is still just 21 years old and only a few seasons into his career and finding his way in first grade.

Defence is still his biggest question mark, not so much in his decision-making but his pure physicality and that is something that should naturally improve with time as he grows into his body more.

In attack, though, Talagi’s involvement has been up and down. He has been more confident running the ball and taking the line on while he is adding another kicking option alongside Cleary, which is important to keep the defence guessing on last tackles.

However, his ball-playing hasn’t quite developed yet to the point where he is enough of a multidimensional threat.

It is an interesting dilemma for a Panthers side that has premiership ambitions and experience across the park in almost every other position, whereas Talagi is in some ways on his own journey while also still trying to help Penrith back to a premiership.

Former two-time premiership winner Luke Keary went on a similar journey at times in his career and can appreciate the challenge Talagi has, even playing in such a dominant team where he has the benefit of not being relied on to produce right away.

“You can tell he’s still trying to figure out his own game,” Keary told foxsports.com.au.

“There are games when he’s really involved early, gets his hands on the ball, and there are others where he’s not as involved, but that’s pretty normal for that kind of five-eighth.

“I’ve played a similar role where you’ve got to pick and choose your times when you’re not the dominant one. You’ve got to kind of get the feel of the game.”

While Talagi’s form has been inconsistent at times, Keary said he has overall been “really impressed” with the 21-year-old, but added Penrith’s left edge defence remains its one potential question mark ahead of another premiership push.

“I’ve been really impressed. I think he’s a great player,” Keary added.

“He’s just got to keep finding his way into games. You can easily get lost as a five-eighth sometimes. Defensively, obviously that left side will get targeted.

“I wouldn’t say it’s a weakness, but it’s one area you can target with Penrith, and you may find a chink or two there. So him and Casey McLean will get targeted a fair bit, which he’s got to learn to deal with, but they’ve set himself up perfectly to go after it.”

TIGERS ENTER MUST-WIN TERRITORY TO KEEP FINALS HOPES ALIVE

St. George Illawarra Dragons vs. Wests Tigers, Saturday 5.30pm @ Jubilee Stadium

It has been 15 long years since the Wests Tigers played their last NRL Finals series, but that drought could finally be coming to an end.

On the verge of ending its lengthy September drought, the Tigers have transformed from perennial cellar-dwellers to genuine final contenders.

However, their destiny remains firmly in their own hands and there is no room for error.

A victory over the last-placed St George Illawarra Dragons this weekend is all but essential if the Tigers are to keep their finals hopes alive.

Sitting in 11th place on the ladder with seven wins and trailing the top eight by four competition points, the joint venture faces a tough final two and a half months of the season.

With little separating the teams battling for a spot in the final, a slip-up against the wooden spooners could prove costly.

But to make matters even tougher, they will have to do it without injured stars Samuela Fainu, Taylan May and co-captain Jarome Luai.

This means the younger players in their squad will need to stand up and deliver alongside experienced halfback Adam Douehi.

“They’ve had a lot of injuries. They lost their whole back row, they lost their halfback for most of the year. Taylan May won’t be there anymore,” Luke Keary told foxsports.com.au.

“There’s been a lot of young guys that played well. Benji won’t be thinking like this, but you want to compete, you want to be in every game, you want to be fighting for that eight at the end.

“Whether they make it or not, I don’t think that’s probably the barometer for them, but you can tell they’ve improved as a club and a team.

“They’re a lot better than what they were.”

While injuries threaten to derail their charge towards the finals at the worst possible time, the experience gained by the club’s younger squad members could prove invaluable – not only for 2026 but in the years ahead.

If Benji Marshall is able to navigate his side through the coming weeks and keep them within striking distance of the top-eight, the return of several key players could provide the spark needed to complete one of the NRL’s most remarkable turnarounds, which would see them go from three consecutive wooden spoons to making the finals.

“If they get everyone fit and healthy, I think they’ll be there or thereabouts,” Keary added.

“But I think if you’re Benji, you just want to see them compete like they did on the weekend.

“They played a pretty good Newcastle side, and they were right there up until the end. So if they can do that all year, they’ll probably win more than they lose.”

BRONCOS TALKER

Brisbane Broncos vs. Cronulla Sharks, Saturday 7.35pm @ Suncorp Stadium

Once again, it’s been another tumultuous week for the Broncos.

Any club around the league is going to be subject to criticism and placed under the blowtorch when in the midst of a seven-game losing streak, but when it’s happening to a club like the Broncos, the attention is on a whole other scale.

So much so that just nine months after winning a premiership in his first year at the helm, there is speculation that coach Michael Maguire’s future at the club is uncertain.

Some players are rumoured to be waiting to see what the club do with Maguire before recommitting.

The coach is contracted until the end of 2027 and there have been calls the club don’t re-sign Maguire until the Broncos start to show signs of life again on the field.

Injuries have played their part this season no doubt, but in foxsports.com.au’s Paul Crawley’s opinion, 2026 has been an abject failure for Brisbane.

“This season has been a disaster for a reigning champion,” he said on NRL360 this week.

“They’re going to miss out on the finals. No grand final winner has missed the playoffs since 2006 so it’s been a disaster.

You can see it in their performance. There’s effort on occasions but it’s not an 80 minute effort.

Luke Keary:

Obviously coming off a premiership, everything’s a failure. I guess they just want to win some games … it’s a tough one because they’re a great team and a great club, so there’s obviously some stuff going on there. They just need to figure all that stuff out first, they’ve had a lot of injuries too … it’s pretty common, all those teams with injuries have struggled this year. I think Madge just needs just to get through the year and get some wins, get some pride back, and then get into pre-season again.

“I think he’s playing mind games there. I was watching his press conference the other day and to me, it came across as a coach that for some reason, is trying to show his players that he believes in them. It doesn’t come across as real what I’m seeing the press conferences.

“Madge is saying they can come back from this but they’ve got to win eight from nine and they’ve lost their last seven.

“You look at their defeats. They’ve lost to the Dragons, Titans, Souths who were undermanned. That’s where their finals hopes disappeared

“Now

THE JOEY WALSH ERA IS HERE!

Parramatta Eels vs. Manly Sea Eagles, Sunday 2pm @ CommBank Stadium

Joey Walsh’ promotion to Manly’s starting halves marks the beginning of his biggest challenge yet, but Luke Keary has urged fans to temper their expectations around the highly touted teenager.

The former premiership-winning half believes Walsh has all the makings to become a long-term NRL star, but warned that the 19-year-old will need time to adjust after being thrust into the starting side following Luke Brooks’ season-ending ACL injury.

Although the former Junior Wallabies captain has produced plenty of highlights and shown glimpses of his potential in his four NRL matches, he now faces the challenge of delivering on a consistent basis as Manly’s full-time five-eighth for the remainder of the year.

“It’s a tough one because he’s only played the couple of games in there at half. So I actually don’t know what to expect,” Luke Keary told foxsports.com.au.

As Walsh prepares to slot into the halves alongside Jamal Fogarty for the first time, Keary said it was important not to place unrealistic expectations on the youngster, stressing that it will take time for him to develop.

“With these young guys, you want them to go and obviously play well, but it’ll take him some time,” Keary added.

“He might have a few games where they aren’t great. He’ll have a few really good ones. It’ll be tough at the start.

“You’re not going to be coming in shooting the lights out every single week, but because they’re going well, he’ll be able to just fit in, do his job, play on that left side.”

Rather than judging Walsh on whether he can immediately replace the influence that Brooks brings, the former NRL great believed the club should focus on allowing him to build confidence in the role over the coming months.

This would see him take a secondary role in attack with Fogarty directing traffic as the lead option.

“I see him just playing a really similar role to Brooks. Jamal will control the game for him. We see what Kieran’s done for Luke,” Keary continued.

“I thought Brooks was playing probably the best footy of his career. So, it’s probably perfect for Joey that he gets Kieran there to help him.”

HOW WILL THE PHINS FAIR WITHOUT KATOA?

Newcastle Knights vs. Dolphins, Sunday 4.05pm @ McDonald Jones Stadium

The Dolphins were able to pull off a gripping, come-from-behind win against the Warriors last Saturday when star half Isaiya Katoa left the field injured, but it’s a new challenge when the opposition has all week to prepare for a new-look halves combo.

Brad Schneider and Kodi Nikorima performed very well to get the Dolphins home and will be tasked with leading the side for the next six weeks with Katoa out of action.

Nikorima has been sensational in recent weeks and he’s been the main playmaker on several occasions throughout his decorated career.

Schneider meanwhile has often been used in relief, especially playing behind Nathan Cleary at Penrith.

Schneider isn’t Katoa, but he has his own strengths which can help this Dolphins side at least hold solid as the finals approach.

According to Luke Keary, Schneider doesn’t have to deviate from his natural game for the Dolphins to hold their form.

“I thought it was going to be a big loss during the game because obviously you lose your halfback, but Schneider was there the week before, which helped him a little bit.

And then Nikorima is in as good as form as I’ve ever seen him,” Keary told foxsports.com.au.

“So he’s kind of, not carrying them, but he’s a big focal point for them. They’ll miss Katoa over the next couple of months. Schneider will be a good replacement. He’s done it for Nathan too, so that that helps. But they’re going to need him back. They’ve just got to hold it down.”

While Katoa’s loss is a blow for their exciting attack, the reason why the Dolphins are genuine premiership threats this season is due to their sharply improved defence.

Pretty much since they’ve entered the comp, the Dolphins have been able to score points, but it’s their evolved versatility that have many observers believe they are the biggest threat to Penrith this year.

“Everyone is talking about their attack. I think their defence is the thing that (has impressed me the most). I don’t even worry about their attack,” Keary said.

“Their defence, they went from having 50 put on them three or four times at the back end of last year. They had Manly put 50 on them in Kieran’s first game, and since then I think they’re second best behind Penrith. That’s been the difference, not their attack. Their attack hasn’t got any better. It’s just purely they’ve become a gritty, tough defensive side.

“Kristian Woolf obviously has put a system in there that they are buying into.

“I think the pack is one of the better packs in the competition. Plath, Stone and Knowles as your three middles are just built on hard work and defence, and then the two back rowers give them that power and that punch out wide, and they both knock out 80 minutes every week which is huge, and then they’ve got the tough front row.

“Their pack is a big part of it and they’ve fixed up their edge defence. I think they leaked the most tries through the middle of the field at the start of the year. But they fixed that, and then their edge defence has stiffened up a lot.”

The Dolphins enter Round 18 in third on the ladder but they are one of four teams on 24 points and those sides are only four points ahead of the ninth-placed Cowboys.

It means that while they’re travelling nicely at the minute, a hiccup or two in the next few weeks could see them free fall down the ladder.

“They’ve got to try and make that four. They’re in a great spot. The Warriors, Roosters, and Dolphins I think are the three that’ll fight it out,” Keary said.

“The Knights are there, but they’ve got a tough run. It’ll be interesting. I think two of those three will probably kick on. One of them will have a really tough period. I can’t tell you who though.”