Round 21 Talking Points, analysis, Essendon should hire Scott Pendlebury as coach, Geelong’s incredible 2023 draft class, curse of Wizard Nick Watson to haunt Kangaroos

Essendon’s next coach might’ve been right under their nose on Anzac Day.

Plus the dip-year draft saving a contender, the curse about to haunt a battler for a long time, and much more as the big issues from Round 21 are analysed in Foxfooty.com.au’s Talking Points!

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‘GO AND GRAB HIM’: GREAT’S BOLD CALL FOR DONS TO MAKE PIES CHAMP COACH

Essendon has settled on a four-person shortlist to be its next senior coach.

But Bulldogs great Brad Johnson has sensationally declared the club should instead hire Scott Pendlebury, saying the Collingwood champion is “ready to go” straight into senior coaching in 2027.

Pendlebury’s playing future is uncertain as he considers calling time on his historic 440-game career.

The 38-year old, already an on-field coach of sorts for Collingwood, is widely considered a senior coach in waiting and he’ll be in high demand across the competition when he hangs up the boots.

And Johnson thinks the Bombers should get a leg up on rival clubs and instantly put Pendlebury in their senior coaching role, arguing the Magpies legend’s ample experience across three decades in the game has him as well placed as anyone.

“(Essendon is) missing one name and he’s a man we know and love within the game,” Johnson began.

“He’s the smartest in the game, he sees the game better than most. On Thursday night, I neatly witnessed Scott Pendlebury execute a comeback against the Geelong Football Club. Along with his coach, Craig McRae.

“The way he communicates with his players, sees the game and is able to adjust on the run. That was the final tick for me, when you sit back and assess if Scott Pendlebury is the right man to move straight into senior coaching.

“There’s no need for this guy to have a PowerPoint presentation to a board. We are seeing his presentation in real time, which holds way more weight than any board presentation.

“He’s been part of a rebuild, he’s been part of success, he’s been part of development, he’s been an assistant coach for the last three years, anyway, as an on-field player.

“He is ready to go right now, in my eyes.”

After Tasmania’s appointment Ken Hinkley as its inaugural coach, Essendon and Carlton are the only clubs left with openings.

Johnson thinks it’s the perfect opportunity for the Bombers to try and secure Pendlebury before other teams come calling in the next couple of years.

“Essendon has the opportunity to have first crack at Scott Pendlebury. Because any other club that loses a coach over the next 12 to 24 months, they’re not going to go through a process,” he continued.

“They’re going to go knock on Scott Pendlebury’s door and say: ‘We want you’.

“Essendon has a chance to do that right now. If I was on their board, I’d be pushing for that to happen.”

While Pendlebury is clearly not technically qualified to be a senior coach and the intricacies of the high-pressure role, the Bulldogs champ noted the AFL’s games record holder has “been in the system for 20 years” and “seen it all”.

“We’re not talking about a guy that needs to go coach a VFL club or anything like that. He is ready to go now with the experience he’s had as a player and leader,” Johnson continued.

“We all know sometimes you need to step away and go and do the extras. But he is ready right now. Go and grab him.”

THE DIP-YEAR DRAFT KEEPING CATS IN CONTENTION

A bad year can, eventually, turn into a very good year.

For example, look at Melbourne’s 2019 campaign. They fell from preliminary finalists the year prior to a massively disappointing 17th-place finish; that sure sounds terrible!

But after some wheeling and dealing they ended up with two early picks in a loaded draft. Two years later Luke Jackson and Kozzie Pickett were Demons premiership stars, with Pickett now amongst the game’s elite, and Jackson’s move west landing them two long-term players in Matthew Jefferson and Caleb Windsor.

Now let’s look at Geelong’s 2023 season the same way.

After one of the most dominant premiership wins of the AFL era, the Cats’ title defence was a serious disappointment, as after an 0-3 start they never really got going. Losing five of their last six games saw them end the year a lowly 12th, their worst finish in 20 years.

But finally having a top-10 pick meant Geelong’s respected recruiters could go to work. And they’ve almost outdone themselves with their 2023 draft crop.

Nothing will match the Cats’ class of 2001, which saw them land Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly, Steve Johnson and Gary Ablett Jr. But five of their selections from three years ago were out there and contributing to Thursday night’s crucial win over Collingwood.

While the Cats did trade out of pick 10, costing them access to Nate Caddy, moving a slot down landed them Connor O’Sullivan (pick 11), who looks like a 15-year stalwart in defence, plus an extra pick which became Shaun Mannagh (pick 36), a state-league standout who has quickly become a game-breaking forward in the style of Stevie J.

The Cats also used another trade to land another three picks. Esava Ratugolea’s move to Port Adelaide has given Chris Scott’s side access to Mitch Edwards (pick 32), who’s now contracted long-term at a club that’s been looking for a long-term ruckman for what feels like decades.

With what was originally Port Adelaide’s pick 94, the Cats also landed mature-aged defender Lawson Humphries (pick 63), who was an absolute gem of a find in the WAFL reserves plus midfielder George Stevens (pick 58) – who has shown flashes but been unable to claim a full-time AFL role.

Capping off the haul, the most Cats-like pick of them all was forward Oli Wiltshire (pick 61), plucked out of the nearby Barwon Heads in the Bellarine league. He has been particularly valuable this year as the club’s spectacular group of half-forwards battled a variety of issues, most notably the now-departed Tyson Stengle.

Getting five best-23 players in one draft is very uncommon. Compare the Cats’ haul to that of Thursday night opponent Collingwood – their first selection Harry Demattia (pick 25) is yet to play at AFL level; their second selection Tew Jaith (pick 37) played one AFL game in 2024 and hasn’t returned… and that’s it.

Obviously, the Magpies had a better 2023, because they won the flag. But they effectively got nothing out of an entire draft, while Geelong added almost a quarter of their entire Round 21 line-up.

If those five players all end up being 200-gamers, which is entirely plausible (though Mannagh is about to turn 29), the Cats will be almost as pleased with their 2023 season as the Pies were.

‘CURSE OF THE WIZARD’: ROOS’ BIG DRAFT REGRET THEY’LL ‘PAY PRICE FOR ANOTHER DECADE’

You could understand if North Melbourne fans struggle to watch Hawthorn games.

Because the missed draft pick of Nick Watson is going to haunt the Kangaroos for many years.

It was in plain sight for North supporters when Watson lit up for five goals against them Hawthorn’s win in Launceston.
North took Colby McKercher (Pick 2) and Zane Duursma (Pick 4) ahead of Watson in the 2023 draft, having missed out on pick 1 Harley Reid because of their irrelevant Round 24 win over Gold Coast.

It could even be argued the Kangaroos picked two of the top 11’s lesser players, with Jed Walter, Ryley Sanders, Caleb Windsor, Dan Curtin, Ethan Read, Nate Caddy and Connor O’Sullivan all shining at their clubs.

While it’s still early days and McKercher and Duursma could yet go on to have good careers, they don’t call Watson the ‘Wizard’ for nothing.

He’s booted 52 goals in 2026 in a career-best season and looks set to claim a maiden All-Australian blazer as one of the most damaging players in the competition.

Every club would have draft regrets. But it’s the calls at the pointy end that really make or break you.

“Three years ago, Hawthorn were 16th and the Kangaroos were 17th. They’ve (the Hawks) made every post a winner, and got every decision right,” Kangaroos great David King said.

“Today, (North) see Nick Watson run around and kick five goals — a player who was on the table there for the Kangaroos to select. They looked at him, and they said no.

“Today, they paid the price and they’ll probably pay the price for another decade watching him do this to the competition.”

On Sunday night’s edition of First Crack, Saints champion Leigh Montagna cheekily suggested ‘The Curse of the Wizard’ could haunt the Kangaroos much like baseball’s ‘Curse of the Bambino’ haunted the Red Sox for almost a century — where team owener Harry Frazee sold star player Babe Ruth to the New York Yankees all the way back in 1919.

“It’s the highest-rated season by a small forward on record,” Montagna explained.

“It’s going to unfortunately haunt North Melbourne, it’ll be remembered like the Buddy Franklin and Richard Tambling draft, or the Aaron Fiora and Matthew Pavlich draft.

“North Melbourne are crying out for a match-winner, that’s the one thing they’re missing.”

Watson has kicked two or more goals in each of his last 13 games.

He sits outright second for the Coleman with 52 majors for the season, five behind leader Charlie Curnow (57).

He couldn’t win it … could he?

Regardless, for the 170cm small forward to even be in the Coleman conversation is some recognition for the season he’s having.

Though Watson has his eyes on a bigger prize.

“The Coleman, don’t worry about that. More about winning the flag,” Watson told Fox Footy post-match.

“There’s a bigger prize at the end of the year.”

FRASER’S ‘ULTIMATE PRESENTATION’ TO FORCE BLUES HAND

Josh Fraser insists Carlton’s stunning turnaround won’t influence whether he formally enters the race for the senior coaching role.

But he’s become impossible to ignore as the frontrunner for the role now.

The interim coach confirmed after Saturday night’s 76-point demolition of reigning premiers Brisbane that he will decide this week whether to officially put his hand up for the permanent position.

Yet after guiding Carlton to nine wins from 11 matches since replacing Michael Voss, Fox Footy’s panel believes the club simply has to have seen enough.

“It’s going to be incredibly difficult to deny Josh Fraser this opportunity now,” two-time North Melbourne premiership player David King declared during Fox Footy’s Super Saturday Live coverage.

“They are playing football like we haven’t seen. It’s the complete model, right now.

“There’s presentations, and then there’s presentations. This is the ultimate presentation.”

The 44-year-old has remained the ultimate professional throughout his short tenure at the helm so far, refusing to look beyond the week-by-week process that media and club fans have remained infatuated with since Voss left the club.

In some ways, Saturday’s night’s smashing was the perfect full circle moment for the Blues. Voss’ last game as head coach was in Round 9, where his side went down by 11 points to the Lions at the Gabba.

Fraser maintained post-game the result wouldn’t alter his own thinking, saying his focus remained on helping the club move forward while continuing to grow as a coach. But, it’s impossible to not look at this 87-point turnaround in just 11 weeks as the icing on the cake for Fraser should he put his hand up.

“This week I’ll come to a decision,” Fraser told journalists.

“I’m really enjoying the opportunity. My aim at the start of this was to help the club move forward, and I feel like in this process I’m learning so much about myself.

“I’m almost convinced that you’re never a finished product in terms of being ready … but I’ll have to make a decision soon.”

Even if Fraser hasn’t yet formally committed to the search, perhaps it’s time for Carlton to commit to Fraser.

Tigers champion Jack Riewoldt suggested the Blues should now essentially ask him to take the gig.

“It’s fascinating that he said this result doesn’t change the way he is attacking, potentially, the job. But, for me it changes the way that Carlton thinks about him,” Riewoldt said on Super Saturday Live.

“They have to see now that this is a man who’s got this group in as good as a position it’s been in for a long time. The sense in this changeroom, you just feel like this is a club that’s stronger and together at the moment.”

While there could be some Blues scars leftover from David Teague’s appointment after a successful interim stint in 2019, King argued this version of Carlton was operating at a significantly higher level.

“Can you remember the ‘Teague Train’? It wasn’t like this,” King said.

“Their attacking numbers weren’t as good as what they are now. They won in different ways under David Teague. They’re winning with method tonight that we haven’t seen before. Their ball movement blew me away.”

Chief Herald Sun reporter Jay Clark suggested Fraser’s decision to go for the role should now be a formality.

“He’d be a great opening batter, because he plays a good, straight bat,” Clark quipped.

“He’s got a mid-week press conference, so you’d think by then he’d need an answer … we’d be shocked if it’s a no at this point.

“As we said, nine out of 11 wins, this footy club is humming. Surely he puts his hand up.”

‘GOOD LUCK’: LEGEND’S BRUTAL WHACK FOR BOMBERS’ COACH SEARCH

A five-man coach race is looming at Essendon as the club’s search speeds towards a decision.

Bombers legends James Hird, Mark McVeigh and caretaker Dean Solomon are all firmly in the mix, while veteran Adelaide and Fremantle assistants Murray Davis and Jaymie Graham are also in contention for the success-starved club.

But coaching legend Leigh Matthews can’t understand how anyone could be interested in the job.

Speaking on 3AW, the four-time Collingwood and Brisbane premiership great was scathing of the Bombers’ hierarchy, saying he wouldn’t go near the vacant position if he were still involved in coaching.

“If I was a coach, I wouldn’t be going to Essendon,” Matthews said.

“Anyone who’s got choices ain’t going to Essendon.”

The 74-year old and current Lions board member compared the Bombers’ coach search unfavourably to Carlton’s ongoing process, in which Graham is also among the final candidates.

Matthews also suggested Tasmania, under CEO Brendon Gale and new coach Ken Hinkley, are far better set up for success.

“The Tasmanian operation under Brendon Gale and now Ken Hinkley as coach looks like they know what they’re doing,” he said.

“I think Graham Wright and Chris Davies at Carlton have got that look, that they know what they’re doing.

“The Essendon people, to me, how qualified are they to make an informed decision?

“From the outside I said ‘oh well, good luck’.

“A coach is only as good as what’s around him, in players and staff and support from the top.

“I’d love to coach under Brendon Gale. I’d be happy to coach under the CEO-ship of Graham Wright.

“From the outside, I’d have no confidence to coach under that regime.”

Matthews’ concerns stem from Bombers president Andrew Welsh’s close involvement in the club’s decision to deny ex-captain Zach Merrett his trade request to Hawthorn last off-season.

Sacked coach Brad Scott revealed in May that his wish was for Merrett to be allowed to move on.

“It seemed to me that Andrew Welsh as president, he was making the call,” Matthews, who coached Scott during the Lions’ golden era in the early 2000s that featured a hat-trick of premierships, said.

“He’s president of the club, he’s not in the footy department.

“That’s the danger of being a football person in the high ends of the administration, because you think you know as much as the footy people know about things.

“That’s a bad vibe.”

Among Matthews’ other issues is the involvement of former Socceroo Kevin Muscat in the Bombers’ process.

The two-time Melbourne Victory A-League winning manager is currently at the helm of Chinese club Shanghai Port, and will conduct meetings over Zoom with coaching candidates.

“I thought ‘oh, he must be back in Australia’. He’s going to do a Zoom meeting with these individual candidates and get some kind of feedback from that,” Matthews said.

“It’s sort of trying to stab with the dartboard. It’s so hard.”

Matthews also claimed Hird, long seen as the frontrunner for the position, would have “already been appointed” had he served as an assistant coach at an AFL club any recently than his stint as Bombers senior coach from 2011-2015.

Hird has worked as director of coaching at VFL side Port Melbourne since 2025.

‘MAKE YOURSELF INDISPENSABLE’: FREO’S HUGE CALL THAT WILL SHAPE FLAG RUN

Big selection calls define premiership teams. And Justin Longmuir might be faced with his biggest yet.

Oscar McDonald played one of the best games of his career in place of injured defensive stalwart Brennan Cox in Fremantle’s win over the Bulldogs on Friday night.

McDonald racked up 22 disposals with 12 marks in a dominant night in defence and just his seventh game this season after coming in for Cox last week.

The three-club journeyman, who played his 100th AFL match last week after stints at Melbourne and Carlton, surely can’t get dropped, right?

Cox has been a mainstay in Longmuir’s defence with 150 AFL games since he made his debut in 2017. But suddenly he might not be an automatic inclusion.

McDonald is well aware of the opportunity in front of him for flag favourite Fremantle.

“I suppose there is a bit of a carrot dangling at the end,” he told Fox Footy post-match.

“You know if that opportunity arises come the pointy end of the season, you want to be there and put your hand up to be selected.”

Three games out from finals and the ladder-leading Dockers’ best shot at a flag in club history, Longmuir suddenly needs to make a call on one of the two backs.

It’s these decisions that could shape Longmuir’s legacy.

History is littered with fringe players maximising their opportunities at the right time and going on to play in premiership sides. The old, right place, right time.

Along with hard luck stories not injury related.

In recent years, Oleg Markov effectively took John Noble’s spot across half back in Collingwood’s 2023 premiership side.

Melbourne champion Nathan Jones left the club’s Perth hub to be with his pregnant wife just before the 2021 Grand Final after the 300-gamer fell out of favour in the senior side.

Going further back, Billy Hartung played 20 games for Hawthorn in 2015 — including the semi-final and preliminary final — but was dropped for the decider.

Ex-Hawks ruckman Jon Ceglar had the same fate to Hartung the year before.

In 2007, Mark Blake played 22 games for Geelong in 2007, but got dropped for the dominant grand final win over Port Adelaide after he played a bad prelim.

And in 2006, Jaymie Graham — a finalist for the Essendon and Carlton coaching vacancies — was dropped for the decider after he played every game for the Eagles.

You wonder if, along with Freo’s ongoing Mason Cox v Sean Darcy selection dilemma, this could present a similar narrative.

McDonald sure drew praise for Friday night’s performance and left commentators questioning how the Dockers could drop him for Cox.

“You can’t drop him when he’s playing a game like this!” Anthony Hudson said on Fox Footy.

“No!” Hawks great Jordan Lewis responded.

Gerard Whateley added: “Make yourself indispensable when your chance comes.”

Over to you, coach.