Form guide with premiership profile of every finalist, top 10 analysis, flag contenders, strengths and weaknesses, latest news

Ten teams for the first time, fighting for their piece of AFL history.

The 2026 AFL finals get underway on Friday — and every team in the race has reason to dream of glory at the end of September. But each team also has its flaws.

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Foxfooty.com.au and Champion Data delve into why all 10 finalists can and can’t win the premiership.

FREMANTLE DOCKERS

1st, 19-4, Qualifying Final vs. Hawthorn at Optus Stadium

Past 5 games: LWLWW (lost to Carlton by 37 points, beat Adelaide by 24 points, lost to Melbourne by four points, beat Western Bulldogs by 37 points, beat West Coast by 70 points)

Strength: Turnover and clearance

The Dockers come into the finals having lost two of their last three regular-season games, but the version of Fremantle we saw carved up by Carlton isn’t what we’ll see in the first qualifying final against Hawthorn. This Justin Longmuir-led side has dominated the two biggest areas of the game all season long, slicing opposition up at stoppage, and damaging in turnover transition. For the year, they’re first in the competition for both points from turnover differential and scores from clearance differential.

Weakness: Not much, but a watch on defence …

Let us preface by reiterating that Fremantle has been the best scores-against defence in the competition this season. However, in the last month leading into the finals, the Dockers’ defence has been a bit slack. In the past four-week span — which includes those big scores given up against the Blues and Melbourne — Longmuir’s side has ranked 15th for score-per-inside-50 against, 16th for defending ball movement, and 17th for post-clearance contested possessions. The absence of Brennan Cox could be significant.

Player in hot form: Jye Amiss

In what’s been Deadeye Jye’s career-best season, the 23-year-old has been in raring form. Across his past six weeks, he’s logged three five-goal hauls — including against finalists Adelaide and Melbourne — and a four-goal effort against stingy Port Adelaide. It has him ranked 62nd in AFL Rating across that six-week span. He’s kicked a career-high 58.32 for the year.

Player who needs a lift: Hayden Young

Footy-lovers feel for the 25-year-old, who’s again had a year impacted by injury. And his form has suffered as he hopes to build into finals nick. He’s notched more than 20 disposals just twice in the past six weeks, in which time he’s kicked only one goal, ranking 133rd in AFL Rating across that span. The Dockers will need a solid contribution out of the smooth left-footer in September.

Premiership profile rating:

Core Four Profile ranking (last six rounds): 7th

— With the footy: 6th

— Without the footy: 6th

— Clearance: 3rd

— Post-clearance: 12th

Why they can and can’t win the flag:

The Dockers are coming into the 2026 finals series off the back of their most successful season on record – and they’ll get two home finals at a venue that proved impenetrable in 2026, Optus Stadium. They’ve enjoyed a relatively injury-free home and away toll so Freo are primed for a big tilt at their maiden premiership. Add in the fact they’ve got Wharfie Time up their sleeve – the crowd activation used to both inspire their players and sink the opposition, and it’s almost Freo’s to lose in 2026. But that fact alone is the big reason why they can’t win in. You only have to look at the Crows last year to see how finals pressure can affect top teams. And when you take into account Freo are the most success starved team in the competition – having never won a flag since their introduction in 1995, and there’s a lot riding on the Dockers. Fremantle have only won one final under coach Justin Longmuir – and in that final the pressure got to the Dockers early as they went goalless in the opening term.

SYDNEY SWANS

2nd, 18-5, Qualifying Final vs. Brisbane at the SCG

Past 5 games: WWWWW (beat North Melbourne by 53 points, beat Essendon by 36 points, beat Port Adelaide by 97 points, beat St Kilda by 19 points, beat GWS by 51 points)

Strength: Forward punishment

Through it all, if there’s one thing the Swans have been this season, it’s damaging in the forward half and in transition. That threatening counterpunch running-in-waves was on display last week against North Melbourne, even without five key senior players. It’ll give the supporters hope their club can still produce in September in their absence, and it should be the area of the game — along with scores from stoppage — that Dean Cox and his staff should be leaning on next month.

Weakness: Defensive transition

Across the past six weeks, we’ve observed a tendency for the Swans to get opened up by the opposition from half-back. It’s certainly a concern going into the finals. Since Round 17, the Swans have ranked 15th for half-back-to-score against, ahead of only Collingwood, Essendon and West Coast. They’re also just 12th in that span for defending opposition ball movement. Evidently, there’s a defensive vulnerability there for swift transitioning teams to exploit — and up against Brisbane next week in a qualifier, Sydney should be sweating the transition battle especially.

Player in hot form: Errol Gulden

Sydney’s slicing-and-dicing superstar midfielder needed a few weeks to build into his season after a long injury layoff, but since then, he’s been irresistible. He’s eclipsed 40 disposals in three of his past six games, plus a 39-disposal effort in Round 22. In that time, he’s been ninth in AFL Rating. And with no Isaac Heeney nor Chad Warner in the finals, Cox and the Swans need their serial accumulator to be at his best to still have a chance at silverware.

Player who needs a lift: Matt Roberts

The Swans need their South Australian half-back-flanker to rise to the occasion, particularly without the run-and-gun of Nick Blakey and Riley Bice. Roberts has ranked 198th in AFL Rating over the past six weeks, eclipsing 20 possessions just once in that span.

Premiership profile rating:

Core Four Profile ranking (last six rounds): 1st

— With the footy: 2nd

— Without the footy: 1st

— Clearance: 1st

— Post-clearance: 8th

Why they can and can’t win the flag:

The Swans possess the best attack in the AFL in 2026, led by Coleman Medallist and new recruit Charlie Curnow. But we can’t assess their finals chances without taking into account the troubling Pullman Five controversy and the impact it’s had on the club. Police investigation aside while assessing the team’s chances for the flag, losing five of your team’s best will no doubt hurt the title push – add in the break of trust and club values, and it would be easy to see the Swans fracture. But what we saw last weekend against the Roos surely gives hope to Dean Cox’s men – that there are still players willing to stand together and fight. And they’ve got the motivation to avenge back-to-back grand final defeats in 2022 and 2024. If nothing else can be taken from the 2026 season, playing at the SCG in front of their home crowd twice could be the tonic shattered players need after the scandal.

BRISBANE LIONS

3rd, 16-7, Qualifying Final vs. Sydney at the SCG

Past 5 games: WWWLW (beat Collingwood by 63 points, beat Gold Coast by 42 points, beat Hawthorn by 67 points, lost to Carlton by 76 points, beat Port Adelaide by 59 points)

Strength: Counterpunch

It’s been the hallmark of this exceedingly successful Brisbane outfit under Chris Fagan. Relentlessly making the opposition pay full price once they win the ball back, and in back-half transition. The Lions rank first in the competition for chain-to-score rate, first for defensive-50-to-inside-50, and second for score-per-inside-50. They also finished the regular season second for points scored, third for points from turnover, and first for inside-50s generated. Brisbane has been an offensive juggernaut for the better part of four years, and it’ll be Fremantle’s biggest concern if the sides meet on preliminary final weekend or in the big dance.

Weakness: Defence

Where the Lions continue to present as vulnerable, however, is in the back half, where they’ve shown on multiple occasions this year they can be exploited at will. When Brisbane hasn’t been fully engaged or bought-in to the without-the-footy aspect of the game, such as when they were trounced by Carlton, it doesn’t look like a true premiership contender. But the Lions know when to stand up, as we’ve seen over the past two years.

Player in hot form: Josh Dunkley

Forever underrated, the 29-year-old continues to do the engine-room business without fuss or fanfare. And he’s stepped up again in the past six weeks, tallying five games where he’s notched 24-plus possessions; ranking 36th in AFL Rating over that period. He’ll again be relied upon this September to stem the influence of opposition star ball-winners.

Player who needs a lift: Oscar Allen

Four-time premiership player Jordan Lewis last week suggested Allen was playing for his finals spot, such has been his indifferent form. Starkly, he’s ranked a lowly 245th in AFL Rating across the past six weeks, kicking a combined nine goals in that time — which was helped by a four-goal haul in that dead-rubber win over Collingwood. The ex-Eagle’s place in Brisbane’s key-forward logjam will continue to be debated over the next week.

Premiership profile rating:

Core Four Profile ranking (last six rounds): 6th

— With the footy: 1st

— Without the footy: 11th

— Clearance: 8th

— Post-clearance: 4th

Why they can and can’t win the flag:

The lethal Lions are proving themselves a force to reckon with once again this season – and they’re now aiming for a record second threepeat for the club. Chris Fagan’s men can win it again because they’ve been there and done that. The Lions have the most finals experience of any club in the flag race, and they’re getting a wounded Swans side of the finals draw. Add in the fact they’ll get at least one home final at the Gabba – a place where they’ve won their past five matches, and it seems it’s all lining up for the Lions. But pressure can do funny things to players – and there’s plenty of expectation on the side to reproduce their flag form. Brisbane have gone deep into finals, playing at least two of them every year since 2018 in a tiring run of success. So is 2026 the year it all becomes too much? With defensive woes and contract chatter threatening to become a distraction, a third straight flag might be too much of an ask.

HAWTHORN HAWKS

4th, 15-6-2, Qualifying Final vs. Fremantle at Optus Stadium

Past 5 games: WDLWW (beat West Coast by 62 points, drew against Collingwood, lost to Brisbane by 67 points, beat North Melbourne by 16 points, beat Essendon by 93 points)

Strength: Bookend balance

Across the course of the season, it’s been hard to fault Hawthorn’s performance at either end of the ground, even despite the constant talk about the tall-forward setup. For the year, the Hawks have been the sixth-best scoring team, and the fourth-best scores against mob. They’re simple indicators, but they tell a holistic picture. For score-per-inside-50, they’re fourth, and against, they’re third. They’re efficient going in, and hard to score against at the other end. But they’ll also punish you off turnover, ranking third for intercept-to-score, and second for defending intercept. They’re one of the most balanced, well-drilled finalists.

Weakness: Doing it against the best

Through the latter portion of the home-and-away season, a close watch emerged over Hawthorn’s ability to do the business against the best sides. Against top-seven sides this year, the Hawks have won three games and lost four. They haven’t been convincing, and at times failed the eye test; with that thumping loss to Brisbane still a glaring reference point. And it’s been at stoppage where they’ve been susceptible to leaking scores, ranking a concerning 14th for points against from clearances against the wider top-10. Stoppage ascendancy is crucial come finals time, and it’s an area Sam Mitchell’s side will have to be keyed into when they travel to play Fremantle next week.

Player in hot form: Josh Ward

The 23-year-old continues to develop into a more-than-solid midfield contributor, and his finish to his fifth home-and-away season has been impressive. He’s notched three 24-plus-disposal efforts over his past six outings, including a gallant 28-possession, eight-clearance effort in that heavy loss to the Lions. Ward has ranked 34th in AFL Rating over the past six weeks.

Player who needs a lift: Tom Barrass

It’s no secret Barrass has been targeted by opposition teams looking to draw him up the field to stem his intercepting influence. And the reality is, it’s worked in recent times, with the star stopper ranking 261st in AFL Rating over the past six weeks. He needs to find a way to be an impact player in September if the Hawks are to get back to preliminary final weekend and contend.

Premiership profile rating:

Core Four Profile ranking (last six rounds): 5th

— With the footy: 5th

— Without the footy: 5th

— Clearance: 3rd

— Post-clearance: 9th

Why they can and can’t win the flag:

The Hawks are an excitement package, led admirably by veteran Jack Gunston in attack. They may be headed to Perth for their first final, but they’ll hold no fear of returning to a ground where they demolished West Coast in their last-start and have trained to combat Freo’s famous Wharfie Time. With last year’s preliminary final heartbreak spurring them on, the Hawks are set to be a more complete finals outfit this time around. But form isn’t on their side in 2026 as the ‘Hok-ball’ phenomenon has faded. Worryingly, the Hawks haven’t beaten any other top six finalist since Adelaide back in Round 11 – before the Crows found their best footy. Gunston aside, inconsistencies in attack have proved a problem for Sam Mitchell and his men, but at least in 2026 they have Will Day. Day missed the 2025 flag tilt due to injury, but with him back, anything is possible for the Hawks.

GEELONG CATS

5th, 15-8, Elimination Final vs. lower ranked wildcard winner at the MCG

Past 5 games: WWWWW (beat Richmond by 57 points, beat North Melbourne by 15 points, beat Essendon by 67 points, beat Collingwood by 25 points, beat Melbourne by 20 points)

Strength: Territory

Geelong’s one-wood has been far from a secret. This Chris Scott-led side is an irrepressible forward-half force; no other club in the land does more damage off intercept. For the season, the Cats rank first in the AFL for points from forward half, first for inside-50 differential, and first for forward-half intercepts. It’s a finals-proven formula, and when the September pressure forces the opposition into mistakes, Geelong will be right there, waiting to pounce and make them pay full price on the scoreboard.

Weakness: Bookends … on watch

Clubs will be monitoring Geelong’s inefficiency at either end of the ground going into September. Because Since Round 17, the Cats have ranked just 14th for scores-per-inside-50, and 13th for scores-per-inside-50 against. Scott’s men go into September unbeaten in their past five matches, but they’re ordinary numbers, given the opposition they’ve recently been tasked with.

Player in hot form: Shaun Mannagh

Have the Cats found a new midfielder for their finals rotation? Without Max Holmes and James Worpel in the fold, at least at present, Mannagh was given more centre-bounce opportunities in the season’s last fortnight, and grasped it. He kicked three goals from 33 disposals against Richmond, and over the past six weeks, he’s ranked 21st in AFL Rating.

Player who needs a lift: Gryan Miers

The footy world knows the difficulties Miers is playing with this year, and his form appears to be suffering as a result. The 27-year-old has had some bright moments, but across his past six matches, he’s ranked 254th in AFL Rating, kicking just four combined goals in that time and eclipsing 17 disposals only twice.

Premiership profile rating:

Core Four Profile ranking (last six rounds): 8th

— With the footy: 7th

— Without the footy: 2nd

— Clearance: 12th

— Post-clearance: 7th

Why they can and can’t win the flag:

The Cats continue to find form at the right time of the year under coach Chris Scott – and now they’re into a 14th finals series in Scott’s 16 years at the helm. They’ve got the experience and the motivation to succeed after last year’s grand final demolition at the hands of the Lions. Like the Lions, the Cats have been there and done that time and time again. But is there enough depth? In years gone by we’ve seen the best from the likes of Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron – so who else steps up in September? Without the injured Max Holmes, the Cats appear a little light on in the ball-winning stakes. History shows even the most successful clubs come to a point of no return, but the Cats have proven us wrong in the past. They are certainly the club with nine lives – and that is why they can claim an 11th AFL crown.

ADELAIDE CROWS

6th, 15-8, Elimination Final vs. higher ranked wildcard winner at Adelaide Oval

Past 5 games: WLWWL (beat GWS by 56 points, lost to Fremantle by 24 points, beat Richmond by nine points, beat Essendon by 72 points, lost to Collingwood by 34 points)

Strength: Defence

This is an Adelaide side with an uncompromising defensive identity, rating well all season long in multiple back-half metrics. Most pertinently, the Crows have ranked second for points against, fourth for scores-per-inside-50 and first for defending ball movement. And while the offensive side of things needs a September fix, defence comes first in the finals, and you’d figure Matthew Nicks and company will lean on that aspect of their game on the biggest stage.

Weakness: Covering the cracks?

The Crows’ ball movement shortcomings have been well-documented — ranking a lowly 15th for defensive-50-to-inside-50 — and that is set to play a factor in this finals series. But additionally, their deadeye accuracy in front of goals might be masking their general attacking deficiencies. The Crows ranked first in the competition for accuracy this home-and-away season, but they’re only seventh for inside-50s and 11th for registering shots at goal. They’ve made the most of their modest chances, but will that hold up when things dry up in the finals?

Player in hot form: Izak Rankine

There isn’t a player in the competition in better form than Rankine, who’s lit it up across the past six weeks in particular. He’s ranked 1st in AFL Rating across the past six weeks. The 26-year-old forged the highest-ever ranking points game against Richmond in Round 22, and solidified that with 39 possessions and a goal against Fremantle, and then four majors from 35 touches against GWS in Round 24. He just needs to stay hot, now.

Player who needs a lift: Josh Rachele

While one livewire is firing on all cylinders, another in Rachele is not. The 23-year-old has seen his impact on games wane since the early part of the year. He’s ranked 228th in AFL Rating over the past six weeks, getting on the scoreboard but not influencing enough — he hasn’t eclipsed 18 disposals in that period.

Premiership profile rating:

Core Four Profile ranking (last six rounds): 3rd

— With the footy: 11th

— Without the footy: 3rd

— Clearance: 5th

— Post-clearance: 2nd

Why they can and can’t win the flag:

The Crows remain one of the form teams of the competition, and have the heartbreak of their failed 2025 campaign to light the fuse for another flag tilt. Out in straight sets amid the Izak Rankine fiasco last year, Adelaide have a point to prove in 2026; and they’re being led brilliantly by their inspirational skipper Jordan Dawson. Named the AFL’s most courageous at the awards ceremony earlier this week, Dawson went on to be All Australian for the third time – and had even rival skipper Max Gawn want to play under him as he offered to give up the AA captaincy to the Crows star. Add in the fact it’s club favourite son Taylor Walker’s farewell tour and there’s plenty to fight for. And while heart can get you far, we’re yet to see the best of the Crows at home – with four of their eight losses for the year coming at Adelaide Oval. Without the home fortress, the Crows look vulnerable in a top 10 fight for the flag.

MELBOURNE DEMONS

7th, 15-8, Wildcard Final vs. Carlton at the MCG

Past 5 games: LWWWL (lost to the Western Bulldogs by 21 points, beat Port Adelaide by 76 points, beat Fremantle by four points, beat Gold Coast by nine points, lost to Geelong by 20 points)

Strength: Stoppage power

Melbourne has lit up the competition in Steven King’s first season at the helm, instilling an exciting offensive game plan that sports fast, expansive transition ball movement from the back half, as well as a sound forward-half game. The Dees have been the fourth-best defensive-half scoring team this year and fifth for points from turnover, but it’s also been from stoppage where they’ve made teams pay. Since Round 17, the Demons have logged a clearance-to-score rate of 32 per cent; its best mark since 2007, if you can believe that. And in last Saturday’s loss to the Bulldogs, King’s side recorded 19 scores from clearances — their second-best return in a match on record, per Champion Data’s archives.

Weakness: Exposed on turnover

For as electric as the Demons are with the ball in hand, they look just as vulnerable in defensive transition. Defending the opposition’s counterpunch has been a sore spot, and it was glaring in the loss to the Bulldogs, who were able to transition with will at the MCG. While the Dees are fifth in the AFL for scores from turnover, they’re a highly concerning 15th for scores against from turnover. And here’s a stat that proves they’re huge outsiders against Carlton on wildcard weekend: Bottom-four teams for points from turnover haven’t won a final since 2004 — Essendon’s last finals win.

Player in hot form: Harrison Petty

The defender-turned-forward has proved his many doubters wrong in the back half of this season, ranking 42nd in AFL Rating over the past six weeks in particular. In that time, the 26-year-old has kicked multiple goals in every game, including three three-goal hauls and a four-goal effort against Geelong. He’ll be crucially important against the Blues without Matt Jefferson in the fold.

Player who needs a lift: Harvey Langford

The 20-year-old wingman has been a solid contributor this year, playing every game, but his impact has waned in the past six weeks, ranking 229th in AFL Rating over that time and eclipsing 17 disposals just once.

Premiership profile rating:

Core Four Profile ranking (last six rounds): 2nd

— With the footy: 4th

— Without the footy: 9th

— Clearance: 6th

— Post-clearance: 1st

Why they can and can’t win the flag:

Who doesn’t love a good fairytale? The Demons could be the AFL’s inspirational tale in 2026 as new coach Steven King leads Melbourne into finals in his first year at the helm. The critics wrote the team off pre-season when they offloaded stars Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca – calling it a rebuild. But little did they know King and his coaching cohort had a plan to use players from within, and they’ve shown a remarkable fight to win as many games this season as fourth-placed Hawthorn. But they’re heading into finals without their leading man Jacob van Rooyen in attack due to suspension, young forward Matt Jefferson and key defender Jake Lever. And in a do-or-die clash against a side riding a massive wave of momentum, all it takes is a little imbalance to a team and it can come tumbling down. The Dees have the worst defensive end of any finalist and without the experienced Lever, those stats could take another hit in the wildcard final.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

8th, 13-9-1, Wildcard Final vs. Collingwood at the MCG

Past 5 games: WDLLW (beat Melbourne by 21 points, drew with Carlton, lost to North Melbourne by 23 points, lost to Fremantle by 37 points, beat Richmond by 57 points)

Strength: Defensive resurgence

For all the criticism of the Bulldogs’ leaky defence, Luke Beveridge’s charges have tightened up across the past two months especially. After ranking 13th for points against and 15th for score-per-inside-50 against between Rounds 0-14, the Dogs have surged to first in the AFL for points against and third for score-per-inside-50 against since Round 15. In that time, they held St Kilda to 61 points, West Coast to 70, Gold Coast to 68, Richmond to 48, Fremantle to 78, Carlton to 82, and Melbourne to 87.

Weakness: Territory return

The Bulldogs might be the antipode of Geelong. Because their forward-half game has been close to non-existent this year, and it could come back to bite against a Collingwood side that ranks sixth for forward-half scoring. The Dogs are the second-worst side at intercepting in the forward half, and 14th for scoring from such intercepts. They’re also a measly 15th for time spent in their forward half.

Player in hot form: Ed Richards

One of the more egregious All-Australian snubs in recent memory, Richards has had a tremendous season. And he’s been as prolific as it gets in the past six weeks, ranking 2nd in AFL Rating over that time, which featured his heroic 31-disposal, two-goal effort in the draw against Carlton. He might be the one the Pies have to tag instead of Bontempelli.

Player who needs a lift: Cody Weightman

Nobody would blame the 25-year-old for needing extended time to rediscover his previous heights after such a lengthy injury layoff, but the livewire forward has ranked 373rd in AFL Rating over the past six weeks. In that time, he’s kicked a combined four goals. The Dogs could certainly use a big outing from the 85-gamer on Friday night.

Premiership profile rating:

Core Four Profile ranking (last six rounds): 11th

— With the footy: 12th

— Without the footy: 3rd

— Clearance: 16th

— Post-clearance: 6th

Why they can and can’t win the flag:

Who can write off a team featuring Marcus Bontempelli? The Bont has proven he’s a class above in big games, but will his efforts be enough to lift a Dogs outfit that, aside from a hattrick of close wins mid-season, haven’t proven themselves against the best? The Dogs go into the 2026 post-season as the only team to have conceded more points than they’ve scored in a worrying sign for coach Luke Beveridge and his backline. But their defensive woes have been an issue for years. The problems in attack are new, and could hold them back from giving the finals a real shake, given they have the worst attack of any side left in the race for the last day in September. But there’s experience there – and that counts for plenty in finals. The Bont, Aaron Naughton, Tim English and Cody Weightman have the big game experience. And they get a wounded Collingwood outfit first up. A win there could spark a winning streak at the right time of the year.

COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES

9th, 12-9-2, Wildcard Final vs. Western Bulldogs at the MCG

Past 5 games: LDWLW (lost to Brisbane by 63 points, drew with Hawthorn, beat West Coast by 19 points, lost to Geelong by 25 points, beat Adelaide by 34 points)

Strength: Punishment spike

The Magpies, who were 5-1-7 after Round 13, revitalised their offence in the second half of the season to comfortably settle themselves in the 10. In particular, the defensive-half scoring has been a big feature. After ranking a lowly 17th for half-back-to-score rate pre-bye, Craig McRae’s side, post-bye, has soared to second in the metric. Collingwood is also sixth in the AFL this year for ball movement, showcasing how dangerous it is in transition.

Weakness: Stoppage

If you were wondering why Collingwood was targeting the likes of Zak Butters and Lachie Neale, this is it. This year, the Pies have ranked 15th for clearances, 14th for points from those clearances, and a lowly 17th for pre-clearance contested possessions. And for the season, McRae’s charges have allowed their opponents the third-most points from stoppage in the competition. It’s an area that the club knows needs improvement, and it’ll be a big watch this weekend and going forward, if they beat the Dogs.

Player in hot form: Beau McCreery

For the criticism of McCreery in the earlier part of the year, the speedster has kicked goals in four of his past six matches, in which time he’s ranked 33rd in AFL Rating. His impact was felt especially in the Round 23 draw with Hawthorn, notching a season-high 22 disposals with 1.2 and seven inside-50s.

Player who needs a lift: Josh Daicos

‘Daicos’ and ‘needs a lift’ in the same sentence doesn’t sit right, but Josh has ranked 205th in AFL Rating over the past six weeks. He’s still getting plenty of the footy, but his impact of late hasn’t been felt in the same way it was early in the campaign.

Premiership profile rating:

Core Four Profile ranking (last six rounds): 9th

— With the footy: 10th

— Without the footy: 10th

— Clearance: 11th

— Post-clearance: 4th

Why they can and can’t win the flag:

Nobody inspires an AFL team quite like Magpies coach Craig McRae. Yes, his team may be decimated by injury, but you can never write off Collingwood in big games. They play in them multiple times every year, and that experience certainly counts come finals. But you take two key backs out of any side, and they will struggle – and unfortunately for Collingwood, that’s where they sit without skipper Darcy Moore and Brayden Maynard. The man who provides the smarts, Scott Pendlebury is also missing through injury in a major blow to the young Magpie outfit. But there’s still plenty of experience there – and with Nick Daicos in Brownlow Medal winning touch, Collingwood remain a contender in 2026. They just need to find enough firepower in attack.

CARLTON BLUES

10th, 12-10-1, Wildcard Final vs. Melbourne at the MCG

Past 5 games: WDWWW (beat Fremantle by 37 points, drew with Collingwood, beat St Kilda by 44 points, beat Brisbane by 76 points, beat Gold Coast by 13 points)

Strength: Defence

Since Round 10 just one team has allowed fewer points than Josh Fraser’s Blues, and that’s the key factor in their 11 wins from 14 attempts since he took over. They stop transition footy (4th for defensive 50 to inside 50 against, and 2nd for chain to score against), and if they do allow an inside 50 they usually stop it from impacting the scoreboard (3rd for scores per inside 50 against). And by unlocking their defence, they’ve unlocked their scoring; they’re always connected.

Weakness: Groundball gets down back

The one way to score against Fraser’s Blues is to get the ball on the deck. They’re 18th in the competition for defensive 50 groundball gets since he took over. It’s going to be all about how the opposing forwards act – can the talls get the ball to ground, and can the smalls take advantage?

Player in hot form: Oliver Florent

Of the two ex-Swans now at Ikon Park, perhaps Will Hayward gets the most attention, but Florent has been tremendous over the past six weeks ranking 26th in AFL Rating. He’s had 24 disposals or more in every game, peaking with 29 touches in the Round 24 upset over the Dockers.

Player who needs a lift: Adam Cerra

At least he’s been reasonably healthy playing 20 games, and has done the team thing by moving to halfback. But Cerra’s last six weeks weren’t great, sitting 278th in AFL Rating. Excluding his six-touch game against the Pies where he didn’t play much, he’s averaging around 22 disposals but doing very little damage.

Premiership profile rating:

Core Four Profile ranking (last six rounds): 3rd

— With the footy: 3rd

— Without the footy: 6th

— Clearance: 2nd

— Post-clearance: 10th

Why they can and can’t win the flag:

Finals is not ‘just a Frase’ for the Blues in 2026 as the unlikeliest contender mounts their charge. At 1-8 when Michael Voss departed as head coach, sitting equal last – ahead only on percentage from Essendon and Richmond, Carlton’s hopes were all but gone. But the decision to hire Josh Fraser as caretaker coach proved a masterstroke. With the pressure valve released, the Blues shook up the competition to win seven straight games – including the scalp of fifth-place finisher Geelong. The 76-point win over a shell-shocked Lions cemented Carlton’s place as a legitimate threat before their final round win over minor premiers Fremantle showed the Blues are up for the fight. Since Fraser took over, the Blues have conceded triple figures just once – a feat they’d done six times in nine games under Voss. Should the Blues bring that defensive prowess to finals, their fairytale rise could keep rolling on.